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| Would pay demands cost an extra £28bn? | Would pay demands cost an extra £28bn? |
| (2 months later) | |
| Faced with a wave of strikes this winter, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was asked what more he could do to head them off. | Faced with a wave of strikes this winter, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was asked what more he could do to head them off. |
| Mr Sunak said the government had accepted the recommendations of the public sector pay review bodies but added: "What I'm not going to do is ask ordinary families up and down the country to pay an extra £1,000 a year to meet the pay demands of the union bosses." | Mr Sunak said the government had accepted the recommendations of the public sector pay review bodies but added: "What I'm not going to do is ask ordinary families up and down the country to pay an extra £1,000 a year to meet the pay demands of the union bosses." |
| Health Secretary Steve Barclay has also used this figure, telling BBC Breakfast on 7 December: "If everyone in the public sector had a pay rise in line with inflation, it would cost an extra £28bn, an extra £1,000 per household." | Health Secretary Steve Barclay has also used this figure, telling BBC Breakfast on 7 December: "If everyone in the public sector had a pay rise in line with inflation, it would cost an extra £28bn, an extra £1,000 per household." |
| But, in terms of the current dispute, these figures look too high. | But, in terms of the current dispute, these figures look too high. |
| The public sector pay bill for all 5.7 million employees was around £233bn last year. | The public sector pay bill for all 5.7 million employees was around £233bn last year. |
| The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts average inflation for 2022-23 of about 10%. A rise for public sector workers in line with this would cost about £23bn. | The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts average inflation for 2022-23 of about 10%. A rise for public sector workers in line with this would cost about £23bn. |
| There are 28 million households in the UK, so that's about £820 per household. | There are 28 million households in the UK, so that's about £820 per household. |
| But there's something else to consider, as Ben Zaranko from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has pointed out. | But there's something else to consider, as Ben Zaranko from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has pointed out. |
| "The government was already planning to give non-zero pay awards when it set out its spending plans last autumn," he told Reality Check. | "The government was already planning to give non-zero pay awards when it set out its spending plans last autumn," he told Reality Check. |
| It was already budgeting for a 3% average pay rise for the public sector for 2022-23 - remember, both the prime minister and the health secretary talked about how much "extra" would have to be paid. | It was already budgeting for a 3% average pay rise for the public sector for 2022-23 - remember, both the prime minister and the health secretary talked about how much "extra" would have to be paid. |
| Once this is factored in, the IFS estimates that increasing it to match inflation of 10% would cost about £18bn - around £640 per household. | Once this is factored in, the IFS estimates that increasing it to match inflation of 10% would cost about £18bn - around £640 per household. |
| And there's also the question of the tax public sector workers would be paying if they got an inflation-linked pay deal. | And there's also the question of the tax public sector workers would be paying if they got an inflation-linked pay deal. |
| If it cost the government £18bn, it would be getting some of this back through tax - roughly a third - bringing the bill down further. | If it cost the government £18bn, it would be getting some of this back through tax - roughly a third - bringing the bill down further. |
| What's the gap between public and private sector pay? | What's the gap between public and private sector pay? |
| What will nurses' strike mean for patients? | What will nurses' strike mean for patients? |
| Does the average nurse earn £34,000 a year? | Does the average nurse earn £34,000 a year? |
| How did the government come up with its figures? | How did the government come up with its figures? |
| On 7 December, we asked the Treasury how it came up with the £28bn and £1,000 per family (or household) figures. | On 7 December, we asked the Treasury how it came up with the £28bn and £1,000 per family (or household) figures. |
| On 9 December, it said they were calculated for an inflation-linked pay deal in 2023-24, whereas our calculations are for 2022-23. | On 9 December, it said they were calculated for an inflation-linked pay deal in 2023-24, whereas our calculations are for 2022-23. |
| The government got to its higher figure by: | The government got to its higher figure by: |
| Taking the public sector pay bill for 2021-22 (as we did) of £233bn | Taking the public sector pay bill for 2021-22 (as we did) of £233bn |
| Increasing that by around 5% to reflect pay deals for 2022-23, which gives a figure of £245bn | Increasing that by around 5% to reflect pay deals for 2022-23, which gives a figure of £245bn |
| Taking 11% of that figure reflecting the most recent CPI inflation figure for October | Taking 11% of that figure reflecting the most recent CPI inflation figure for October |
| That gives £27bn - the other £1bn comes from "assumptions on pay drift and workforce growth", which have not been specified | That gives £27bn - the other £1bn comes from "assumptions on pay drift and workforce growth", which have not been specified |
| Dividing the £28bn by the 28 million households in the UK, giving the £1,000 per household. | Dividing the £28bn by the 28 million households in the UK, giving the £1,000 per household. |
| We asked the government why its figures were for 2023-24, when the strikes and disputes are over pay settlements in the current year? | We asked the government why its figures were for 2023-24, when the strikes and disputes are over pay settlements in the current year? |
| It said these were appropriate given that pay has been set for this year and we are nine months through the pay year for most workforces. | It said these were appropriate given that pay has been set for this year and we are nine months through the pay year for most workforces. |
| But some questions remain: | But some questions remain: |
| Why is the government taking an inflation figure from October 2022 and applying it to a pay deal in 2023-24? | Why is the government taking an inflation figure from October 2022 and applying it to a pay deal in 2023-24? |
| Ben Zaranko, from the IFS, points out that CPI inflation is forecast by the OBR to average 5.5% in 2023/24. | Ben Zaranko, from the IFS, points out that CPI inflation is forecast by the OBR to average 5.5% in 2023/24. |
| "So it doesn't make sense to apply the current rate of CPI inflation to a pay award next year", he told us. | "So it doesn't make sense to apply the current rate of CPI inflation to a pay award next year", he told us. |
| He suggested that the right number to use, under the government's methodology, would be "more like £14 billion". | He suggested that the right number to use, under the government's methodology, would be "more like £14 billion". |
| And why would families be asked to pay "an extra £1,000 a year"? | And why would families be asked to pay "an extra £1,000 a year"? |
| We don't know quite what Mr Sunak means by this. | We don't know quite what Mr Sunak means by this. |
| If he means an extra £1,000 in tax to fund this pay deal, it's worth pointing out that taxes such as income tax and national insurance are not evenly distributed throughout the population. | If he means an extra £1,000 in tax to fund this pay deal, it's worth pointing out that taxes such as income tax and national insurance are not evenly distributed throughout the population. |
| Some families don't pay any and the amount of tax paid by those who do, varies widely. | Some families don't pay any and the amount of tax paid by those who do, varies widely. |
| This article is based on a live page post that was published at 11:58 on 7 December | This article is based on a live page post that was published at 11:58 on 7 December |
| What claims do you want BBC Reality Check to investigate? Get in touch | What claims do you want BBC Reality Check to investigate? Get in touch |
| Read more from Reality Check | Read more from Reality Check |
| Related Topics | |
| Public sector | |
| Rishi Sunak | |
| Reality Check | |
| Pay | |
| Institute for Fiscal Studies |