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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
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| Perfect Storm: Science and food | Perfect Storm: Science and food |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| How wheat can be adapted to survive varying environments | How wheat can be adapted to survive varying environments |
| Faced with the threat of a booming population going hungry in a warming world, there is quiet confidence among many researchers that technology can provide solutions, reports the BBC's environment correspondent, David Shukman. | Faced with the threat of a booming population going hungry in a warming world, there is quiet confidence among many researchers that technology can provide solutions, reports the BBC's environment correspondent, David Shukman. |
| The warning of a "perfect storm" is partly intended to focus attention on the positive role that science can play - and to galvanise politicians to support it. | The warning of a "perfect storm" is partly intended to focus attention on the positive role that science can play - and to galvanise politicians to support it. |
| There is a glimpse of that potential at the Rothamsted plant research centre in Hertfordshire, where 160 years of experiments have repeatedly boosted the key feature of crops - their yield. | There is a glimpse of that potential at the Rothamsted plant research centre in Hertfordshire, where 160 years of experiments have repeatedly boosted the key feature of crops - their yield. |
| PERFECT STORM 2030 BBC correspondents explore the forecast by UK chief scientist John Beddington, of a "perfect storm" of food, water and energy shortages in 2030. They also consider what scientists and members of the public can do to help avert a crisis. Send us your comments | PERFECT STORM 2030 BBC correspondents explore the forecast by UK chief scientist John Beddington, of a "perfect storm" of food, water and energy shortages in 2030. They also consider what scientists and members of the public can do to help avert a crisis. Send us your comments |
| During a visit to the centre's experimental plots and carefully managed greenhouses it is hard to miss the sense of optimism that research can offer answers. | During a visit to the centre's experimental plots and carefully managed greenhouses it is hard to miss the sense of optimism that research can offer answers. |
| That is partly the result of Rothamsted's long history. | That is partly the result of Rothamsted's long history. |
| Back in the 1850s, a typical wheat field would produce about one tonne of grain per hectare, compared with a typical British field that now yields about nine times that. | Back in the 1850s, a typical wheat field would produce about one tonne of grain per hectare, compared with a typical British field that now yields about nine times that. |
| So the challenge is to find ways of boosting output in the world's biggest producers, China and India, where yields are between one-quarter and one-third of the British level. | So the challenge is to find ways of boosting output in the world's biggest producers, China and India, where yields are between one-quarter and one-third of the British level. |
| Dwarf wheat | Dwarf wheat |
| Currently there is a potentially catastrophic imbalance between the world's people and the food they need. Roughly 50% of the population lives in areas where there is only 30% of the arable land. | Currently there is a potentially catastrophic imbalance between the world's people and the food they need. Roughly 50% of the population lives in areas where there is only 30% of the arable land. |
| It is frustrating that GM is not more acceptable Professor Keith Goulding | It is frustrating that GM is not more acceptable Professor Keith Goulding |
| One technique that has transformed productivity is the breeding of so-called "dwarf" varieties - traditionally most of a wheat plant's energy goes into growing a long stem rather than nurturing the vital grains that are needed. | One technique that has transformed productivity is the breeding of so-called "dwarf" varieties - traditionally most of a wheat plant's energy goes into growing a long stem rather than nurturing the vital grains that are needed. |
| Following dwarf wheat out of the lab and into the field are plants that are better at resisting drought or more efficient at using scarce nutrients. | Following dwarf wheat out of the lab and into the field are plants that are better at resisting drought or more efficient at using scarce nutrients. |
| Does Professor Peter Shewry, acting director of Rothamsted, think it's possible that a global population of 8 billion could be fed, in just 21 years' time? | Does Professor Peter Shewry, acting director of Rothamsted, think it's possible that a global population of 8 billion could be fed, in just 21 years' time? |
| "Yes", he says, "it is definitely doable". | "Yes", he says, "it is definitely doable". |
| But though many of the technologies exist now, much depends on finding ways of transferring them. | But though many of the technologies exist now, much depends on finding ways of transferring them. |
| Local conditions, a lack of finance, and regional cultures could all have an impact on how readily the modern techniques are exploited. | Local conditions, a lack of finance, and regional cultures could all have an impact on how readily the modern techniques are exploited. |
| Awkward choices | Awkward choices |
| Most controversial is the question of whether to harness the controversial science of genetic modification (GM) - the transfer of genes to enhance a particular attribute. | Most controversial is the question of whether to harness the controversial science of genetic modification (GM) - the transfer of genes to enhance a particular attribute. |
| The scientists at Rothamsted make no secret of their preference for GM to be explored as an option. | The scientists at Rothamsted make no secret of their preference for GM to be explored as an option. |
| Professor Keith Goulding, head of soil studies, says yields can be boosted without GM, but would be enhanced far more rapidly with it. | Professor Keith Goulding, head of soil studies, says yields can be boosted without GM, but would be enhanced far more rapidly with it. |
| "We'd like it considered more sensibly because it has the potential for controlling pests and disease virtually without using chemicals at all. | "We'd like it considered more sensibly because it has the potential for controlling pests and disease virtually without using chemicals at all. |
| "It is frustrating that GM is not more acceptable. We don't have to put more exotic genes across the species barrier - it can be just about using genes from other plants." | "It is frustrating that GM is not more acceptable. We don't have to put more exotic genes across the species barrier - it can be just about using genes from other plants." |
| So, in the countdown to the UK chief scientist's warning of a "perfect storm" in 2030, society will be forced to confront some awkward choices: science may have answers but will people want them? | So, in the countdown to the UK chief scientist's warning of a "perfect storm" in 2030, society will be forced to confront some awkward choices: science may have answers but will people want them? |