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| Sanna Marin suffers defeat in Finland election as SDP beaten into third place | |
| (30 minutes later) | |
| Right-wing NCP and nationalist Finns pull narrowly ahead of ruling Social Democrats with 99.4% of votes counted | Right-wing NCP and nationalist Finns pull narrowly ahead of ruling Social Democrats with 99.4% of votes counted |
| Finland’s prime minister, Sanna Marin, has lost her battle to stay in power after her centre-left Social Democratic party (SDP) was narrowly beaten into third place in a cliffhanger election by its conservative and far-right rivals. | Finland’s prime minister, Sanna Marin, has lost her battle to stay in power after her centre-left Social Democratic party (SDP) was narrowly beaten into third place in a cliffhanger election by its conservative and far-right rivals. |
| With all of the votes counted on Sunday, the right-wing National Coalition party (NCP) won 20.8% of the vote, with the populist, nation-first Finns party scoring 20.1%. Marin’s SDP took 19.9% of the vote. Voter turnout was 71.9%. | |
| Marin congratulated the election winners during her concession speech, but hailed an improvement in both her party’s vote share and its projected number of MPs. “It’s a really good achievement, even though I didn’t finish first today,” she told supporters in Helsinki. | Marin congratulated the election winners during her concession speech, but hailed an improvement in both her party’s vote share and its projected number of MPs. “It’s a really good achievement, even though I didn’t finish first today,” she told supporters in Helsinki. |
| “Democracy has spoken, the Finnish people have cast their vote, and the celebration of democracy is always a wonderful thing,” she added. “We have good reason to be happy about this result.” | “Democracy has spoken, the Finnish people have cast their vote, and the celebration of democracy is always a wonderful thing,” she added. “We have good reason to be happy about this result.” |
| The NCP’s leader, Petteri Orpo, told the public broadcaster, Yle, that the result was a “big victory … a strong mandate for our policies”, adding that his party would be leading the coalition talks. Finns leader Riikka Purra called it an “an excellent result”. | The NCP’s leader, Petteri Orpo, told the public broadcaster, Yle, that the result was a “big victory … a strong mandate for our policies”, adding that his party would be leading the coalition talks. Finns leader Riikka Purra called it an “an excellent result”. |
| The largest party traditionally gets the first shot at forming a coalition to obtain a majority, meaning Marin’s four-year term as Finland’s prime minister has come to a close – even if the SDP could yet form part of the new coalition. | The largest party traditionally gets the first shot at forming a coalition to obtain a majority, meaning Marin’s four-year term as Finland’s prime minister has come to a close – even if the SDP could yet form part of the new coalition. |
| The NCP won 48 seats in the Nordic country’s 200-seat parliament, 10 more than in the outgoing assembly, while the Finns took 46 – an increase of seven MPs – and the SDP 43, an improvement of three. | The NCP won 48 seats in the Nordic country’s 200-seat parliament, 10 more than in the outgoing assembly, while the Finns took 46 – an increase of seven MPs – and the SDP 43, an improvement of three. |
| Marin, 37, became the world’s youngest prime minister when she assumed the leadership of the SDP – and the Finnish premiership – in 2019 and has successfully led the country through the Covid pandemic and to the brink of Nato membership. | Marin, 37, became the world’s youngest prime minister when she assumed the leadership of the SDP – and the Finnish premiership – in 2019 and has successfully led the country through the Covid pandemic and to the brink of Nato membership. |
| Marin’s determination to enjoy a social life also made headlines, with fans hailing her as a rising star of the centre-left and model for a new generation of young female leaders. Critics say her behaviour has at times been inappropriate for her office. | Marin’s determination to enjoy a social life also made headlines, with fans hailing her as a rising star of the centre-left and model for a new generation of young female leaders. Critics say her behaviour has at times been inappropriate for her office. |
| She was forced to apologise and took a drug test last year, but also defended her right to party, after photos and video emerged of her drinking and dancing with friends. | She was forced to apologise and took a drug test last year, but also defended her right to party, after photos and video emerged of her drinking and dancing with friends. |
| Her personal popularity remained high, but with a recession forecast and inflation surging, the opposition leaders’ accusations of excessive government borrowing and inflated public spending – along with their pledges to impose tough cuts, particularly on welfare budgets – hit home. | Her personal popularity remained high, but with a recession forecast and inflation surging, the opposition leaders’ accusations of excessive government borrowing and inflated public spending – along with their pledges to impose tough cuts, particularly on welfare budgets – hit home. |
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| Orpo has promised to slash spending on unemployment and housing benefits, while Purra – whose Finns party was part of a coalition government from 2015 to 2017 – said its priority was to cut non-EU immigration, promising also to focus on climate, crime and energy policies if it is part of the new coalition. | |
| The NCP leader, who has said the party did not rule out working with anyone, is now expected to start sounding out other leaders to begin trying to form a new coalition government from Monday, a process likely to take several weeks. | The NCP leader, who has said the party did not rule out working with anyone, is now expected to start sounding out other leaders to begin trying to form a new coalition government from Monday, a process likely to take several weeks. |
| He could try to assemble a right-leaning “blue-black” coalition with the Finns and one or more smaller parties, but may also decide to pursue a cross-spectrum “blue-red” alliance with the SDP and its allies, an outcome analysts see as perhaps most likely, despite significant policy differences. | He could try to assemble a right-leaning “blue-black” coalition with the Finns and one or more smaller parties, but may also decide to pursue a cross-spectrum “blue-red” alliance with the SDP and its allies, an outcome analysts see as perhaps most likely, despite significant policy differences. |
| His task is complicated by the fact that the SDP and two of its current five-party coalition, the Greens and the Left Alliance, have already ruled out any alliance with the Finns, which Marin called “openly racist” during the campaign. | |
| Of the two others, the Swedish People’s party – a moderate party representing Swedish-speaking Finns, unrelated to the Swedish far-right party of the same name – has also said it is “very unlikely” to partner with the far-right party. | Of the two others, the Swedish People’s party – a moderate party representing Swedish-speaking Finns, unrelated to the Swedish far-right party of the same name – has also said it is “very unlikely” to partner with the far-right party. |