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| U.S. Economy May Be Heading to a Place That Must Not Be Named | U.S. Economy May Be Heading to a Place That Must Not Be Named |
| (about 16 hours later) | |
| Recession has become a nasty word. Federal Reserve officials dance around it with euphemisms like “a soft landing” or its dreaded alternative, “a hard landing.” | Recession has become a nasty word. Federal Reserve officials dance around it with euphemisms like “a soft landing” or its dreaded alternative, “a hard landing.” |
| Look beneath the hood of Fed forecasts, though, and it’s clear that central bank policymakers recognize that there is a good chance of a sharp slowdown soon. Their own policies are at least partly responsible for making that happen. | Look beneath the hood of Fed forecasts, though, and it’s clear that central bank policymakers recognize that there is a good chance of a sharp slowdown soon. Their own policies are at least partly responsible for making that happen. |
| The odds of such a slowdown over the next year are fairly high, I’d say, whatever label the authoritative arbiter of such things, the National Bureau of Economic Research, ends up giving the 2023 economy months or years from now. This emphatically does not mean that there will be a recession — or that I or anyone else has the ability to predict one with precision. But I think there’s enough reason to suspect that rough times are coming to factor that possibility into your personal planning. | The odds of such a slowdown over the next year are fairly high, I’d say, whatever label the authoritative arbiter of such things, the National Bureau of Economic Research, ends up giving the 2023 economy months or years from now. This emphatically does not mean that there will be a recession — or that I or anyone else has the ability to predict one with precision. But I think there’s enough reason to suspect that rough times are coming to factor that possibility into your personal planning. |
| Back in the late 1970s, when the Cornell economist Alfred Kahn was the Carter administration’s “inflation czar,” he got into political trouble for describing economic declines with clear and disturbing words like “depression” and “recession.” I always think of him as Professor Kahn, because he was a dean at Cornell in the early 1970s, just before he entered the world of public policy. He frequently told us, above all else, to use plain and simple English. | Back in the late 1970s, when the Cornell economist Alfred Kahn was the Carter administration’s “inflation czar,” he got into political trouble for describing economic declines with clear and disturbing words like “depression” and “recession.” I always think of him as Professor Kahn, because he was a dean at Cornell in the early 1970s, just before he entered the world of public policy. He frequently told us, above all else, to use plain and simple English. |
| When Professor Kahn left Ithaca for government posts, he became renowned for those precepts, attacking “the artificial and hyper-legal language that is sometimes known as bureaucratese or gobbledygook.” Those words come from a memo he wrote to his staff at the Civil Aeronautics Board in 1977. The Washington Post published the whole thing. Please, he told government employees, use “straightforward, quasi-conversational, humane prose — as though you are talking to or communicating with real people.” |