This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65239092

The article has changed 5 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 3 Version 4
Turkish elections: Simple guide to Erdogan's toughest election battle Turkish elections: Simple guide to Erdogan's fight to stay in power
(about 1 month later)
President Erdogan's powers have increased dramatically since he first led Turkey in 2003President Erdogan's powers have increased dramatically since he first led Turkey in 2003
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and now faces his stiffest challenge yet. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and he is favourite to win five more, having narrowly missed out on a first-round victory.
Six opposition parties have combined forces for presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May, picking opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu as their unity candidate. Turkey is a Nato member state of 85 million people, so it matters who is president both to the West and to Turkey's other partners including Russia.
Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian under President Erdogan and the opposition is seeking to reverse that. Mr Erdogan's opponent in a second-round run-off on 28 May is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who was backed by six opposition parties and won almost 45% of the vote - some 2.5 million votes less than his rival.
He appears vulnerable, with Turkey facing soaring inflation and reeling from twin earthquakes that have left more than 50,000 people dead. Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian under President Erdogan and this was the opposition's biggest chance yet to defeat him, with Turks struggling with soaring inflation and reeling from twin earthquakes that have left more than 50,000 people dead.
Any candidate that can secure more than half the presidential vote on 14 May is the outright winner. Failing that, the race goes to a run-off two weeks later. Whoever wins the vote on 28 May will win the presidency.
Erdogan's election challenge Erdogan's advantage
Turkey's voters have been polarised for years, but Mr Erdogan, 69, is under pressure as never before as opinion polls suggest his main rival for the presidency has the edge. His AK Party has been in power since November 2002, and he has ruled Turkey since 2003.
His AK Party has been in power since November 2002, and he has ruled Turkey since 2003. A new generation of six million first-time voters have never known any other leader. Although Turkey's 64 million voters are deeply polarised, the 69-year-old leader has an in-built advantage over his rival.
Initially he was prime minister, but then became president in 2014, reacting to a failed 2016 coup by dramatically increasing his powers. Mr Erdogan's allies control most mainstream media, to the extent that state TV gave the president 32 hours and 42 minutes of air time and his challenger just 32 minutes, at the height of the campaign in April.
Now he runs the country from a vast palace with much of the media controlled by allies. Monitors from the international observer group OSCE said there was an unlevel playing field and biased coverage in Turkey's vote, even if voters had genuine political alternatives.
Increasing numbers of Turks have blamed him for soaring inflation, because of his unorthodox refusal to raise interest rates. The official inflation rate is just above 50%, but academics say it is actually higher than 100%. Initially Mr Erdogan was prime minister, but he then became president in 2014, running the country from a vast palace in Ankara. He responded to a failed 2016 coup by dramatically increasing his powers and cracking down on dissent.
President Erdogan's government has been criticised for its response to the twin earthquakes Leading Kurdish politicians have been jailed and other opposition figures threatened with a political ban.
In the wake of Turkey's catastrophic twin earthquakes on 6 February, he and his ruling party have been widely criticised for mishandling search and rescue efforts but also failing to adapt construction practices in earlier years. But this election was the opposition's biggest hope of unseating the president yet.
Increasing numbers of Turks have blamed him for rampant inflation of 44%, and academics say the real rate is far higher than that.
He and his ruling AK Party were widely criticised for their response to the double earthquakes in February that left millions of Turks homeless in 11 provinces.
Cost of living crisis gives Erdogan biggest poll test yetCost of living crisis gives Erdogan biggest poll test yet
Quake failures leave Erdogan vulnerable in TurkeyQuake failures leave Erdogan vulnerable in Turkey
Millions of Turks were left homeless in the 11 provinces affected by the quakes. Since many of the areas are seen as Erdogan party strongholds, the election could be won and lost in the east. And yet most of the cities which are considered Erdogan strongholds still gave him 60% of the vote.
His AK Party is rooted in political Islam, but he has forged an alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP. His party is rooted in political Islam, but he has forged an alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP.
Six opposition parties - one candidateSix opposition parties - one candidate
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, comes across as a mild-mannered, bookish opponent and he has presided over a string of election defeats at the helm of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, is an unlikely choice of candidate to unseat the president.
But this time could be different as he is fighting as a unity candidate for six opposition parties, ranging from his own centre-left party and the nationalist Good party to four smaller groups, which include two former Erdogan allies one of whom co-founded the AK Party. He is seen as a mild-mannered and bookish opponent and presided over a string of election defeats at the helm of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
He polled well in the first round, taking Mr Erdogan to his first run-off, but not as well as the opinion polls had indicated he would.
Mr Kilicdaroglu secured the backing of six opposition parties, including the nationalist Good party and four smaller groups, which include two former Erdogan allies one of whom co-founded the AK Party.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu has agreed that the leaders of his alliance will all share the role of vice presidentKemal Kilicdaroglu has agreed that the leaders of his alliance will all share the role of vice president
Significantly, Mr Kilicdaroglu also has the explicit backing of Turkey's second-biggest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish HDP, whose co-leader has described the elections as "the most crucial in Turkey's history". He also has the support of Turkey's second-biggest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish HDP, whose co-leader described the elections as "the most crucial in Turkey's history".
Because of a court case alleging links with Kurdish militants, the party is running for parliament under the banner of another party, the Green Left and is not fielding its own candidate for the presidency. His biggest hope of snatching victory from a president buoyant after his first-round lead lies in increasing the support of both nationalist and Kurdish voters. A difficult feat when Turkey's nationalists want the next president to take a tougher line on Kurdish militants.
In the lead-up to the second round, he made a clear pitch to nationalist voters, banging his fists on the table and vowing to send home 3.5 million Syrian refugees. This was already his policy, but now he has decided to make a big point of it.
The soft-spoken challenger to Turkey's powerful ErdoganThe soft-spoken challenger to Turkey's powerful Erdogan
Kemal Kilicdaroglu's selection was not universally popular as the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara were potentially stronger candidates. Both are party colleagues who took control of Turkey's two biggest cities in 2019 for the CHP for the first time since 1994.Kemal Kilicdaroglu's selection was not universally popular as the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara were potentially stronger candidates. Both are party colleagues who took control of Turkey's two biggest cities in 2019 for the CHP for the first time since 1994.
A former civil servant who is part of the Alevi minority, Mr Kilicdaroglu led a 24-day march for justice in 2017 which was seen as the biggest show of defiance against President Erdogan's rule for years. He is also a member of Turkey's Alevi minority, and when the opposition candidate drew attention to his roots Mr Erdogan accused him of seeking to exploit it.
His Nation's Alliance, also known as the Table of Six, are united in their desire to return Turkey from the presidential system created under Mr Erdogan to one led by parliament. To change the system, they need to win 400 of Turkey's 600 MPs, or 360 MPs to take a proposal to a referendum. His Nation Alliance, also known as the Table of Six, are united in their desire to return Turkey from the presidential system created under Mr Erdogan to one led by parliament.
The leaders of the other five members of the alliance have agreed to take on the roles of vice-president. The leaders of the other five members of the alliance have agreed to take on the roles of vice-president. But even if they were to win the presidency, the Erdogan alliance won a majority in parliament on 14 May and would make reforms very difficult.
Splitting the vote Fight for remaining votes
Turkish opinion polls are not always reliable, but Mr Kilicdaroglu's hopes of winning the election outright in the first round were dealt a blow when a former centre-left party colleague, Muharrem Ince, decided to join the presidential race. Turnout in the first round was already very high at almost 89% among voters in Turkey.
Mr Ince, 58, was the Republican People's Party presidential candidate in 2018, but left two years later because of differences with Mr Kilicdaroglu, He now runs the secular nationalist Homeland Party and has faced accusations of diluting the opposition vote and playing into President Erdogan's hands. If Mr Kilicdaroglu is to make up the 2.5 million votes between him and President Erdogan, he will need to win over voters who backed ultranationalist candidate Sinan Ogan who came third in the first round with 2.8 million votes.
But he has a strong presence on social media and young voters in particular have been impressed by his dance moves on TikTok. That task was made even harder when Mr Ogan endorsed the president.
One other candidate with little chance of significant success is ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan, but he too has the potential to be a kingmaker. His demand is for a tougher stance on tackling Kurdish militants and returning Syrian refugees.
How does the vote work? Mr Kilicdaroglu had already adopted a more strident tone on Syrians since the first round, promising to "send away" all refugees as soon as he came to power.
To enter the 600-seat parliament, a party needs to attract 7% of the vote, or be part of an alliance that does. Reacting to Mr Ogan's decision to back his rival, he said the vote was now a referendum: "We are coming to save this country from terrorism and refugees."
That is why alliances have become so important in Turkey, and the six-party opposition have highlighted changing that as one of their proposed reforms. President Erdogan said he had made no deals with Mr Ogan: 450,000 refugees had already returned home and the plan was to send back another million, he said.
Meral Aksener, leader of the Good Party, is one of the main backers of the opposition alliance Who controls parliament?
Turks vote for party lists rather than candidates under proportional representation, so seat numbers correspond to votes cast per party rather than alliances. The ruling AK Party of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has forged an alliance with the nationalist MHP and together they have secured a majority of 322 seats in the 600-seat parliament, down on five years ago.
The four smaller parties in the main opposition Nation Alliance will challenge for parliament under the banner of the two biggest parties: the CHP or the nationalist Good Party. Parties tend to form alliances because they need a minimum of 7% support to enter parliament.
The ruling AK Party is party of the People's Alliance, but its individual parties are fighting the election separately. The six-party opposition wants to change that but its Nation Alliance only managed 212 seats.
Candidates running for the Green Left instead of the pro-Kurdish party are part of the six-party Labour and Freedom Alliance. All but one of the six parties will run under the banner of the Green Left. The pro-Kurdish party ran under the banner of the Green Left to avoid a potential election ban, and came third with 61 seats.
Under the Erdogan reforms, it is now the president who chooses the government, so there is no prime minister. And if his broad People's Alliance fails to win a majority in parliament, he may struggle to rule in the same way as now. The pro-Erdogan People's Alliance currently has 334 MPs. Under the Erdogan reforms, it is now the president who chooses the government, so there is no prime minister.
Mr Erdogan has already served two terms as president, so a third appears to go against the rules of Turkey's constitution. Erdogan's future
But Turkey's YSK election board ruled that his first term should be seen as starting not in 2014 but in 2018, when the new presidential system began with elections for parliament and president on the same day. Under Turkey's revamped constitution allowing only two terms as president, Mr Erdogan would have to stand down in 2028 if he won the 28 May run-off. There are currently no plans for a successor.
He has already served two terms but Turkey's YSK election board ruled that his first term should be seen as starting not in 2014 but in 2018, when the new presidential system began with elections for parliament and president on the same day.
Opposition politicians had earlier asked the YSK to block his candidacy.Opposition politicians had earlier asked the YSK to block his candidacy.
How would the opposition change Turkey? What do the two candidates offer?
The Kilicdaroglu-led Nation Alliance wants to restore Turkey's parliamentary system and reform the presidency, removing the head of state's right to veto legislation, cutting the post's ties to political parties and making it electable every seven years. Under an Erdogan presidency, Turkey can expect increased control of state institutions and the media and a greater crackdown on dissent. Inflation is likely to remain high because of his preference for low interest rates.
The six parties also want to kickstart Turkey's decades-long bid to join the European Union and restore "mutual trust" with the US, after years of fractious relations during the Erdogan years. Internationally, he could continue to resist Sweden's bid to join Nato and will paint himself as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.
They have pledged to bring inflation below 10% within two years and send Syrian refugees home voluntarily. Turkey currently hosts some 3.6 million Syrian refugees. Voters face stark choices for presidency
Mr Kilicdaroglu and his allies want to remove the president's right to veto legislation, cutting the post's ties to political parties and making it electable every seven years.
He wants to bring inflation down to 10% and send 3.5 million Syrian refugees home. President Erdogan has promised to speed up the voluntary repatriation of a million Syrians.
Mr Kilicdaroglu also wants kickstart Turkey's decades-long bid to join the European Union and restore "mutual trust" with the US, after years of fractious relations during the Erdogan years.
Related TopicsRelated Topics
TurkeyTurkey
Turkish elections 2023Turkish elections 2023
Kemal Kilicdaroglu
Turkish lira crisisTurkish lira crisis
Recep Tayyip ErdoganRecep Tayyip Erdogan