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| India to have more people than China by mid-2023, UN says | India to have more people than China by mid-2023, UN says |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| India is set to overtake China to become the most populous country in the world by the middle of this year, data released by the United Nations shows. | India is set to overtake China to become the most populous country in the world by the middle of this year, data released by the United Nations shows. |
| India's population is expected to reach 1.4286 billion - 2.9 million more than its neighbour on 1.4257 billion. | India's population is expected to reach 1.4286 billion - 2.9 million more than its neighbour on 1.4257 billion. |
| The Asian nations have accounted for more than a third of the global population for over 70 years. | The Asian nations have accounted for more than a third of the global population for over 70 years. |
| China's birth rate has plunged recently with its population shrinking last year for the first time since 1961. | China's birth rate has plunged recently with its population shrinking last year for the first time since 1961. |
| India's population forecast provided in the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of World Population report is an estimate since there has been no census in the country since 2011. | India's population forecast provided in the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of World Population report is an estimate since there has been no census in the country since 2011. |
| After 140 years of uninterrupted census every 10 years, the 2021 census was cancelled because of Covid and postponed to 2022. Now it has been pushed back again to 2024. | After 140 years of uninterrupted census every 10 years, the 2021 census was cancelled because of Covid and postponed to 2022. Now it has been pushed back again to 2024. |
| In an interview with the BBC, the UN's Chief of Population Estimates and Projection, Patrick Gerland, says that any numbers about India's real population size are "naïve assumptions based on fragmental information". | In an interview with the BBC, the UN's Chief of Population Estimates and Projection, Patrick Gerland, says that any numbers about India's real population size are "naïve assumptions based on fragmental information". |
| "We don't have real official data coming out from India," he says. | "We don't have real official data coming out from India," he says. |
| Also, the UN says their estimate does not include the population of China's two Special Administrative Regions - Hong Kong and Macau, which together have more than 8 million people - or the island of Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a breakaway province to be unified with the mainland one day. Taiwan sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders. | Also, the UN says their estimate does not include the population of China's two Special Administrative Regions - Hong Kong and Macau, which together have more than 8 million people - or the island of Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a breakaway province to be unified with the mainland one day. Taiwan sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders. |
| In November, the global population crossed 8 billion. But experts say growth is not as rapid as it used to be and is now at its slowest rate since 1950. | In November, the global population crossed 8 billion. But experts say growth is not as rapid as it used to be and is now at its slowest rate since 1950. |
| What it will mean when Indians outnumber Chinese | What it will mean when Indians outnumber Chinese |
| Should China worry about its shrinking population? | Should China worry about its shrinking population? |
| What will China's population drop mean for the world? | What will China's population drop mean for the world? |
| Both India and China have seen declines in their fertility rates. This means in China, the population will start declining next year, despite the country abandoning its one-child policy in 2016 and introducing incentives for couples to have two or more children. | Both India and China have seen declines in their fertility rates. This means in China, the population will start declining next year, despite the country abandoning its one-child policy in 2016 and introducing incentives for couples to have two or more children. |
| Soaring living costs and the growing number of women joining the workforce are among other factors being blamed for the slowdown in China. | Soaring living costs and the growing number of women joining the workforce are among other factors being blamed for the slowdown in China. |
| In India, too, fertility rates have fallen substantially in recent decades from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to 2.2 births per woman today. | In India, too, fertility rates have fallen substantially in recent decades from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to 2.2 births per woman today. |
| A survey commissioned by the UNFPA had a majority of Indians saying their population was too large and fertility rates too high. Almost two in three respondents identified economic issues as top concerns when thinking about population growth. | A survey commissioned by the UNFPA had a majority of Indians saying their population was too large and fertility rates too high. Almost two in three respondents identified economic issues as top concerns when thinking about population growth. |
| Demographers, however, say India's population overtaking China's shouldn't be seen as a matter of concern and caution against giving into anxieties over the rising numbers. | Demographers, however, say India's population overtaking China's shouldn't be seen as a matter of concern and caution against giving into anxieties over the rising numbers. |
| "Instead, they should be seen as a symbol of progress, development, and aspirations if individual rights and choices are being upheld," the UN report says. | "Instead, they should be seen as a symbol of progress, development, and aspirations if individual rights and choices are being upheld," the UN report says. |
| BBC News India is now on YouTube. Click here to subscribe and watch our documentaries, explainers and features. | BBC News India is now on YouTube. Click here to subscribe and watch our documentaries, explainers and features. |
| Additional reporting by Ricardo Senra, Global Population correspondent | Additional reporting by Ricardo Senra, Global Population correspondent |
| Watch: How the world got to 8 billion - and where next | Watch: How the world got to 8 billion - and where next |
| Watch: How the world got to 8 billion - and where next | Watch: How the world got to 8 billion - and where next |
| Read more India stories from the BBC: | Read more India stories from the BBC: |
| When a biryani flies hundreds of miles to reach Indians | When a biryani flies hundreds of miles to reach Indians |
| Tim Cook launches India's first Apple Store | Tim Cook launches India's first Apple Store |
| India court hears historic same sex marriage case | India court hears historic same sex marriage case |
| The brazen murder of a mafia don-turned-politician | The brazen murder of a mafia don-turned-politician |
| An error that sent Indian teen to death row for 25 years | An error that sent Indian teen to death row for 25 years |
| Related Topics | Related Topics |
| Population growth | Population growth |
| Asia | Asia |
| India | India |