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Climate change: How is my country doing on tackling it? Climate change: How is my country doing on tackling it?
(12 days later)
Every year countries pledge to cut their greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to curb the impacts of climate change. With world leaders at COP28 in Dubai, there is a renewed sense of urgency to limit emissions to curb the harshest impacts of climate change.
But still global temperatures keep rising. Many of these governments have pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to keep global warming levels below a 1.5C rise on pre-industrial levels.
In May, scientists announced that average global temperatures would probably pass the 1.5C threshold for the first time in the next five years. As temperatures rise the world will see more devastating heatwaves, wildfires and floods. But after months of record-shattering heat, 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record.
What is 1.5 C and the Paris climate agreement? And scientists now anticipate average global temperatures to pass the 1.5C threshold within the next five years.
Find out using the interactive chart below which countries are on track with their commitments to meet the Paris climate goal of keeping global temperature rises below 1.5 degrees. Use the interactive chart below to see which countries are on track with their commitments to meet the Paris climate goal of keeping global temperature rises below 1.5 degrees.
The graphic shows how each country should be reducing emissions to line up with global climate commitments, considering their resources and technology available. Not all countries can independently afford the same kinds of emissions-reducing actions.
However, the pathways do not take into account historical emissions that countries have released. Some less affluent countries set two different goals - one they aim to meet completely on their own, and a more ambitious one they aim to meet if they can get support from wealthy donors. We've only shown the independent targets here.
Developed nations such as the UK began building factories and manufacturing earlier than other nations. Fossil fuels were used in the process and these countries began producing significant greenhouse gas emissions from the mid 19th Century. But the emissions debate is more nuanced than simple reductions.
Developing countries argue that it is fair for developed countries, who have emitted more greenhouse gases, and therefore contributed more to the issue of climate change, to reduce their emissions quicker and harder. Historical responsibility for climate change is not shared equally across all nations. So, a group of independent researchers at Climate Action Tracker, have devised a method to calculate what they call the "fair share" targets, which consider a country's historical contributions to total global emissions as well as their current levels.
Developed nations also benefited financially from industrialising earlier, and it is argued they should therefore use more resources to tackle the issue. Countries that have contributed only a marginal amount to the overall total have a lesser "fair share" of responsibility than those that have been heavy emitters for many years.
'Fair share' pathways are an alternative to the pathways in the graph above. They take into account these historical issues. By looking more closely at some individual countries, we can get a better sense of whether they are on or off track.
There is no international agreement on what a fair level of contribution would be for each country to cut their emissions. But in the global 2015 Paris Agreement countries did recognise they have a shared responsibility to tackle climate change but have different capabilities. China
Using more than 40 studies from the UN's climate scientists group, the IPCC, researchers at Climate Action Tracker have created a set of 'fair share' emissions pathways to get each country to align with the 1.5 degree Paris goal. China is the world's largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases.
Their research on fair shares is illustrated in the chart below. And while it is less responsible for past contributions to global warming, China's rapid economic growth in recent years has begun to tip that balance.
Saudi Arabia's most recent pledges could yield a range of emissions, according to the Climate Action Tracker. Emissions from its current policies could fall within the range of pledged emissions, but would still be higher than the midpoint shown in the chart above. Some of this growth has gone hand in hand with the world's fastest transition to renewable energies. China leads the world in its adoption of solar, wind and electric transportation.
Additional reporting by Becky Dale and Esme Stallard. But it has continued to rely heavily on coal, with no promised end.
Additionally, China - the world's leading methane emitter - has not yet joined the more than 150 countries who have signed up for the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030.
US
After China, the United States ranks second for annual emissions.
Recent policy changes have taken steps towards meeting its targets. The Inflation Reduction Act was the country's largest single investment in climate action.
And a joint statement with China ahead of COP28 promised the two countries would step up their cooperation on issues such as reducing methane and tripling renewable energy uptake. The statement fell short of setting new ambitious targets, though.
Bernice Lee, a distinguished Fellow at Chatham House and an expert on China, told the BBC at the time of the statement: "My suspicion is that it has proven to be too difficult to find the form of language that works for both. But nonetheless, I think it's good that they have a statement that's focused on the things they agree on, which is, obviously, the renewables and methane."
But the US is still a long way from reaching its stated emissions goals, and it has continued to approve new oil drilling projects in the Gulf of Mexico.
Brazil
One year into his presidency, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has made some progress on reversing the destruction of the Amazon that took place under his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.
In November 2023, Brazil's National Institute for Space Research announced that deforestation in the Amazon hit a six-year low and the government is calling for the creation of a forest fund at COP28 to incentivise other nations to reduce deforestation.
Brazil has reduced its emissions pledge, but it continues oil exploration and plans to align itself more closely with Opec in future, undermining the ambitions announced.
Brazil has restated its emissions targets, but it continues oil exploration and plans to align itself more closely with Opec in future.
UK
Much of the UK's success in lowering its emissions has come from the decarbonisation of the energy sector - by switching away from coal toward natural gas and, more recently, renewable sources.
Ambitious net zero targets have also been set by previous administrations.
But in 2023, the UK's independent Climate Change Committee found only 20% of the emissions reductions needed to meet the UK's Sixth Carbon Budget in 2035 were covered by viable policies.
Dr Mark Maslin, professor of earth systems at UCL, told the BBC: "UK progress toward net zero has been poor in 2023.
"This is because the government has weakened many of its green policies and granted new oil and gas licences, which are incompatible with a net zero future," he added.
The government said the licences would slow the decline in domestic production of oil and gas and secure domestic energy supply.
Some recent global developments have been positive.
On the first day of COP28 the parties agreed to implement a specific "loss and damage fund", seen as a major win for developing countries in particular.
This money will help poorer countries cope with the destruction caused by storms and droughts, which are expected to worsen with climate change.
For the first time, countries have agreed to include the greenhouse gas emissions from food and agriculture in their national plans to tackle climate change.
The world has also seen "impressive" uptake of clean energy sources, with record annual expansions in solar and wind capacity, according to the International Energy Agency.
And in the first week of COP28, around 100 countries have pledged to triple renewable energy use by the end of the decade.
However, the increase in clean energy has not seen a similar fall in fossil fuel use. In some places it is even expanding.
No matter the target, there is plenty of progress still needed.
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