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| Can UK’s Storm Shadow missiles change Ukraine fight against Russia? | Can UK’s Storm Shadow missiles change Ukraine fight against Russia? |
| (6 months later) | |
| On 11 May, the UK government confirmed it had donated an undisclosed number of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. | On 11 May, the UK government confirmed it had donated an undisclosed number of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. |
| The Storm Shadow cruise missile has a range of over 150 miles - triple the range of the missiles Ukraine has used up to now. | The Storm Shadow cruise missile has a range of over 150 miles - triple the range of the missiles Ukraine has used up to now. |
| This makes it easier for Ukraine to launch precision strikes against Russian high-value targets that were previously beyond reach. | This makes it easier for Ukraine to launch precision strikes against Russian high-value targets that were previously beyond reach. |
| With a limited number of Storm Shadows available, Ukraine is likely to focus their use on Russian military assets inside occupied areas. | With a limited number of Storm Shadows available, Ukraine is likely to focus their use on Russian military assets inside occupied areas. |
| Given the missile's range, Russian military planners will again need to consider how to better protect logistics, command and control centres, and equipment stationed behind the frontline. | Given the missile's range, Russian military planners will again need to consider how to better protect logistics, command and control centres, and equipment stationed behind the frontline. |
| Plus, Storm Shadow missiles can penetrate hardened aircraft hangars - so Russia's airbases will be more vulnerable in occupied areas of Ukraine. As a result, Russia may draw back some of its air defences, says Ben Barry, a senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. | Plus, Storm Shadow missiles can penetrate hardened aircraft hangars - so Russia's airbases will be more vulnerable in occupied areas of Ukraine. As a result, Russia may draw back some of its air defences, says Ben Barry, a senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. |
| Ukraine's Soviet-era Su-24 Fencer jet fighters have been equipped with the missile and crucially, will therefore be able to launch surgical strikes from a safer distance. | Ukraine's Soviet-era Su-24 Fencer jet fighters have been equipped with the missile and crucially, will therefore be able to launch surgical strikes from a safer distance. |
| UK confirms supply of Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Ukraine | UK confirms supply of Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Ukraine |
| We may already be seeing the impact of the Storm Shadow missiles. | We may already be seeing the impact of the Storm Shadow missiles. |
| On 12 May, Russia accused Ukraine of firing the UK-supplied missile at two industrial sites in the Russian-held city of Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. | On 12 May, Russia accused Ukraine of firing the UK-supplied missile at two industrial sites in the Russian-held city of Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. |
| The BBC is unable to verify these claims. | The BBC is unable to verify these claims. |
| Ukraine has not confirmed specific Storm Shadow strikes. However, it recently claimed to have hit a Russian military headquarters located deep inside the Southern Eastern region of Zaporizhzhia, at the Port city of Berdiansk. | Ukraine has not confirmed specific Storm Shadow strikes. However, it recently claimed to have hit a Russian military headquarters located deep inside the Southern Eastern region of Zaporizhzhia, at the Port city of Berdiansk. |
| Berdiansk is approximately 70 miles from assessed Ukrainian frontline positions and therefore beyond the range of previously available missiles. | Berdiansk is approximately 70 miles from assessed Ukrainian frontline positions and therefore beyond the range of previously available missiles. |
| Whilst the BBC is unable to verify this attack, Ukraine is clearly determined to dislocate Russia's war machine - and Russia's Defence Ministry is now acutely aware that Ukraine is able to pursue longer range attacks. | Whilst the BBC is unable to verify this attack, Ukraine is clearly determined to dislocate Russia's war machine - and Russia's Defence Ministry is now acutely aware that Ukraine is able to pursue longer range attacks. |
| Storm Shadows vs US-supplied Himars | Storm Shadows vs US-supplied Himars |
| In July 2022, the US supply of Himars rockets empowered Ukraine to hit targets up to 50 miles away. | In July 2022, the US supply of Himars rockets empowered Ukraine to hit targets up to 50 miles away. |
| These strikes caused Russia to move back and disperse logistics out of the missile's range. | These strikes caused Russia to move back and disperse logistics out of the missile's range. |
| Ukrainian strikes on the Antonivka Road Bridge also stopped Russia resupplying its forces occupying Kherson city, forcing them to withdraw across the Dnipro River. | Ukrainian strikes on the Antonivka Road Bridge also stopped Russia resupplying its forces occupying Kherson city, forcing them to withdraw across the Dnipro River. |
| Himars are also, in part, credited for a Ukrainian shift to Western-style flexibility in tactics. | Himars are also, in part, credited for a Ukrainian shift to Western-style flexibility in tactics. |
| Ukraine: What are Himars missiles and are they changing the war? | Ukraine: What are Himars missiles and are they changing the war? |
| Kherson: Russia to withdraw troops from key Ukrainian city | Kherson: Russia to withdraw troops from key Ukrainian city |
| Ukraine is likely to have fewer Storm Shadow missiles than it has Himars - but it should still be better able to disrupt Russia's battle rhythm. | Ukraine is likely to have fewer Storm Shadow missiles than it has Himars - but it should still be better able to disrupt Russia's battle rhythm. |
| As J Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations, says: "If Russia has to devote more resources to protecting command and logistic hubs or decides to pull them further from the frontlines that will significantly slow forward moving operations." | As J Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations, says: "If Russia has to devote more resources to protecting command and logistic hubs or decides to pull them further from the frontlines that will significantly slow forward moving operations." |
| And while Himars have proven highly effective against static positions, they are reported to be unable to hit moveable targets, like ground-based air defences that are mounted on vehicles. | And while Himars have proven highly effective against static positions, they are reported to be unable to hit moveable targets, like ground-based air defences that are mounted on vehicles. |
| Storm Shadow may therefore help thin out Russian air defences across occupied areas of Ukraine and undermine Russian air power ahead of an anticipated counter-offensive, particularly making life easier for Ukrainian ground forces. | Storm Shadow may therefore help thin out Russian air defences across occupied areas of Ukraine and undermine Russian air power ahead of an anticipated counter-offensive, particularly making life easier for Ukrainian ground forces. |
| There are, however, political limits for the UK-supplied missile. While on paper it can hit targets inside Russia, Ukraine will have agreed not to use it against military assets inside the Russian Federation - or even just over the border - to avoid escalating the war. | There are, however, political limits for the UK-supplied missile. While on paper it can hit targets inside Russia, Ukraine will have agreed not to use it against military assets inside the Russian Federation - or even just over the border - to avoid escalating the war. |
| Russia and Ukraine both face the challenge of sustaining what has become a war of attrition. | Russia and Ukraine both face the challenge of sustaining what has become a war of attrition. |
| The West's resolve to support Ukraine remains, but its ability to supply advanced missiles and air defences are not infinite. | The West's resolve to support Ukraine remains, but its ability to supply advanced missiles and air defences are not infinite. |
| Ukraine will remember that when the UK pledged to send its main battle tank, Challenger 2, the US and European countries followed in supplying Western tanks to Ukraine. | Ukraine will remember that when the UK pledged to send its main battle tank, Challenger 2, the US and European countries followed in supplying Western tanks to Ukraine. |
| The Storm Shadow may set another Western precedent. | The Storm Shadow may set another Western precedent. |
| Related Topics | Related Topics |
| War in Ukraine | |
| Military | Military |
| Ukraine | Ukraine |