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A visual guide to the collapse of Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka dam A visual guide to the collapse of Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka dam
(2 days later)
Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing up Dnipro River dam, which has largely been swept awayUkraine accuses Russia of blowing up Dnipro River dam, which has largely been swept away
Where is the dam and what has happened to it? Where is the dam and what has happened?
The dam is located upstream from the city of Kherson on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. Russia controls territory on the left bank of the river. The right bank is held by Ukraine. The dam is located upstream of the city of Kherson on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. Russia controls the territory on the left bank of the river. The right bank is held by Ukraine.
The 2km-long dam has a road running along its top and is about 30 metres high. It powers the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant, a major energy producer, and holds back a reservoir containing 18 cubic km of water, which in turn feeds the north Crimea canal. The canal carries drinking water to Russian-occupied Crimea. In the early hours of 6 June, the dam collapsed.
While there is still a lot of conflicting information, one version has it that at around 3am on Tuesday morning a large explosion occurred. The blast was reportedly loud enough to be heard 80km away. Footage from a monitoring camera overlooking the dam appears to show a flash, explosion and breakage of the dam. Before its collapse, the 30-metre-high, 2km-long dam had a road running along its top. It powered the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant, a major energy producer, and held back a reservoir containing 18 cubic km of water that supplied communities and agriculture and provided cooling water to the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia, which is under Russian control.
How serious is the damage? How serious is the damage and the flooding?
Before and after satellite images of the dam show the extent of the damage. Before-and-after satellite images show the extent of the damage to the dam and the adjacent Kakhovka hydroelectric plant, which were largely swept away.
The dam and Kakhovka hydroelectric plant appear to have been largely swept away, releasing a wall of water downstream. The collapse sent water cascading downstream, flooding 230 sq miles of territory, according to Ukrainian authorities. This map shows the extent of the flooding as of 7 June.
Video images from the city of Nova Kakhovka show flood waters in the main square rising around the municipal building. The geography around the river means Russian-controlled areas to the south have been more badly hit. North of Kherson city, the land rises to a plain overlooking the river. To the south is a wide delta with marshes, low-lying islands and flat, sandy levels.
On the Ukrainian-controlled right bank of the river, evacuations have been ordered in 10 riverside settlements and districts of Kherson city. Video images from the city of Russian-controlled Nova Kakhovka showed flood waters in the main square rising around the municipal building on 6 June.
Drone footage also appears to show the river at roof height in an unidentified settlement, presumably on the Russian-controlled left bank. This footage shows flooding in Korsunka, Dnipriany and Nova Kakhovka the three settlements immediately downstream of the dam on the Russian-controlled left bank of the river.
The geography around the river means it is likely that Russian-controlled areas will be more badly hit by the flooding. Above Kherson city the land rises to a plain that overlooks the river. To the south is a wide delta with marshes, low-lying islands and flat sandy levels. These before-and-after satellite images show the impact of the flooding on the settlements of Krynky and Oleshky.
These images show the flooding of a granary in Nova Kakhovka.
What has the humanitarian impact been?
At least five people have reportedly died as a result of the floods, a number that is expected to increase. Emergency services in the occupied southern portion of Kherson said on 8 June that up to 14,000 homes had been flooded.
Tens of thousands of people have fled their homes. Some of those who haven’t left have become stranded on rooftops as the water levels have risen.
This drone footage shows water being delivered by air to a family trapped in their house in Oleshky. They were later rescued.
Who was responsible?Who was responsible?
Ukraine has blamed Russian occupying forces, which have had control of the dam and the adjacent town since last year’s full-scale invasion, of blowing up the dam in an attempt to ward off a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukraine has blamed Russian occupying forces, which have had control of the dam and the adjacent town since last year’s full-scale invasion, of blowing it up in an attempt to ward off a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
For its part the Kremlin on Tuesday accused Kyiv of sabotaging the dam to deprive Russian-controlled Crimea of the fresh water it receives from the reservoir and to distract attention from the counteroffensive. The Kremlin says Kyiv sabotaged the dam to deprive Russian-controlled Crimea of the fresh water it receives from the reservoir and to distract attention from the counteroffensive.
How will this affect Ukraine’s counteroffensive? Ukraine’s allies in the west have not directly apportioned blame to Russia, but they have questioned why Kyiv would want to destroy the dam. Engineering experts have said the collapse was most likely caused by a deliberate explosion inside the dam.
With so little known about Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive, that question remains unclear. It is possible that the collapse was made more impactful by the fact that Russia had deliberately allowed water levels to rise in the reservoir behind it.
Ukrainian forces have been trying to cross the Dnipro south of Kherson city, while also attempting to advance along the narrow Kinburn spit at the mouth of the river. How will it affect Ukraine’s counteroffensive?
Both the dam area and the delta are seen as vulnerabilities for Russian forces, and the flooding has put paid for now at least to any potential Ukrainian attempt to cross the Dnipro River around Kherson/Nova Kakhovka by widening the barrier separating the two forces. The delta area had been seen as vulnerable for Russian forces in part because of its low elevation.
Russian defensive positions have already been concentrated on higher ground on the southern bank, at Olekshy and Hola Prystan. The flooding has put paid for now at least to any potential Ukrainian attempt to cross the Dnipro River around Kherson/Nova Kakhovka by widening the barrier separating the two forces.
The loss of the road across the top of the dam also deprives Ukraine of a potential line of attack across the river, leaving only the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson city as a paved river crossing.The loss of the road across the top of the dam also deprives Ukraine of a potential line of attack across the river, leaving only the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson city as a paved river crossing.
The flooding might also allow Russian reserves in the south to block any move on Melitopol. And it could free up troop reserves concentrated in the south to be directed elsewhere. The flooding may also allow Russian reserves in the south to block any move on Melitopol. And it could free up troop reserves concentrated in the south, allowing them to be directed elsewhere.
The Dnipro delta is one of the more underreported fronts in the war. Following Ukraine’s capture of Kherson, a quiet struggle has been going on for control on the marshy islands there, reported on by the Guardian in early May. A relative risky attack could, if successful, have opened up the option of a more direct strike towards Crimea. What is the impact on farming and the environment?
How serious could the flooding be? In the hours after the collapse, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said “a global ecological disaster” was playing out. On 8 June Zelenskiy himself said that 50,000 hectares of forest had been flooded, and that 20,000 animals and 10,000 birds were “under threat of imminent death”.
A Ukrainian nongovernmental organisation estimated ahead of the dam’s collapse that nearly 100 villages and towns could be flooded. It also reckoned that the water level would start dropping only after 5-7 days. This footage from upstream shows dead and dying fish on the drained bottom of the Nova Kakhovka reservoir on 7 June.
At the time of writing, flood waters were still rising, with the flood level expected to peak later on Tuesday. There are fears that the depleted reservoir will leave three critical regions in Ukraine’s “bread basket” without a key water supply. A series of canals run from the reservoir, all of which help irrigate swaths of agricultural land.
Last month, it was reported that water levels in the reservoir had reached a 30-year high as the Russian occupiers had kept relatively few sluice gates open. The most significant of these canals are the North Crimean canal, which supplies water to western Kherson before flowing down to Crimea, and the Kakhovsky canal, which irrigates most of the Kherson region’s fields before entering Zaporizhzhia.
A senior Ukrainian presidential adviser said “a global ecological disaster is playing out now, online, and thousands of animals and ecosystems will be destroyed in the next few hours”. Satellite imagery of the area directly south of the reservoir taken before the dam collapse shows mile upon mile of agricultural land.
Another worry is what the drop in water levels further upstream might mean for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukraine’s nuclear operator said the blowing up of the dam “could have negative consequences” for the plant, which is Europe’s biggest, but that for now the situation is “controllable”. Ukraine has warned that agricultural land in these regions could be so heavily affected that they could turn into “deserts”.
In February, water levels were so low that many feared a meltdown at the plant, whose cooling systems are supplied with water from the Kakhovka reservoir. What is the impact on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant?
The cooling systems for Europe’s largest nuclear plant are supplied with water from the Kakhovka reservoir. If the dam falls below 12.7m, the lowest level at which water can still be pumped upstream to Zaporizhzhia, there are alternative water sources to keep the nuclear plant cool.