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A Mutiny That Showed the Stress on Putin’s System of Rule A Mutiny That Showed the Stress on Putin’s System of Rule
(about 5 hours later)
Since it began last year, Russia’s war in Ukraine has hinged not just on battlefield results, but also a question in Moscow: Could President Vladimir V. Putin’s grip on power withstand the strain of fighting a long and costly war, with no end in sight?Since it began last year, Russia’s war in Ukraine has hinged not just on battlefield results, but also a question in Moscow: Could President Vladimir V. Putin’s grip on power withstand the strain of fighting a long and costly war, with no end in sight?
The events of the last few days, in which Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of a notorious private army called Wagner, mounted a brief rebellion against Russia’s military leadership, are not enough to answer that question. But they do suggest that Mr. Putin’s hold over the elite coalition that keeps him in power is under stress, with unpredictable consequences.The events of the last few days, in which Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of a notorious private army called Wagner, mounted a brief rebellion against Russia’s military leadership, are not enough to answer that question. But they do suggest that Mr. Putin’s hold over the elite coalition that keeps him in power is under stress, with unpredictable consequences.
Even though authoritarian leaders may appear to rule by fiat, they all rely on coalitions of powerful elites to stay in power, analysts say. The specifics vary by country and situation: Some count on the military, others on a single ruling party, the religious authorities, or wealthy business leaders.Even though authoritarian leaders may appear to rule by fiat, they all rely on coalitions of powerful elites to stay in power, analysts say. The specifics vary by country and situation: Some count on the military, others on a single ruling party, the religious authorities, or wealthy business leaders.
In Syria, for instance, the military is dominated by members of Bashar al-Assad’s Alawite religious minority, and officers have long relied on the government for housing and other benefits, entangling their lives with the survival of the regime. Even when a 2011 popular uprising turned into a bloody, protracted civil war, Mr. Assad’s supporters within the military kept him in power: The benefits of loyalty, to them, far outweighed the costs.In Syria, for instance, the military is dominated by members of Bashar al-Assad’s Alawite religious minority, and officers have long relied on the government for housing and other benefits, entangling their lives with the survival of the regime. Even when a 2011 popular uprising turned into a bloody, protracted civil war, Mr. Assad’s supporters within the military kept him in power: The benefits of loyalty, to them, far outweighed the costs.
Mr. Putin’s alliance had until recently seemed very robust, centered around the “siloviki,” a group of officials who came to politics after serving in the K.G.B. or other security services, and who now occupy key roles in Russia’s intelligence services, oil and gas industry and ministries.
His high public support has long been another major source of strength, and Mr. Putin had structural advantages as well. He does not answer to a political party whose leadership could band together and replace him, as was the case in the Soviet Union. And by dividing power between different agencies, ministers and wealthy businessmen, he ensured that no person or institution was strong enough to overthrow him.