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| Reading the Tea Leaves on the End of the War in Ukraine | Reading the Tea Leaves on the End of the War in Ukraine |
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| The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February last year has led to the biggest war in Europe in many generations. Even before the Wagner Group — the 50,000-strong paramilitary force that had been fighting alongside Russian soldiers — seized control of military sites in the southwestern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don last week, with the apparent aim of toppling Moscow’s military command, the incursion into Ukraine looked like a major failure for its instigator, President Vladimir Putin. Within a month of the war’s onset, it had already become “a [foul]-up of historic proportions,” as one veteran Ukraine correspondent recently put it. So it is no wonder that this year brings several new books aiming to summarize the conflict and to mull how it might end. | The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February last year has led to the biggest war in Europe in many generations. Even before the Wagner Group — the 50,000-strong paramilitary force that had been fighting alongside Russian soldiers — seized control of military sites in the southwestern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don last week, with the apparent aim of toppling Moscow’s military command, the incursion into Ukraine looked like a major failure for its instigator, President Vladimir Putin. Within a month of the war’s onset, it had already become “a [foul]-up of historic proportions,” as one veteran Ukraine correspondent recently put it. So it is no wonder that this year brings several new books aiming to summarize the conflict and to mull how it might end. |
| In considering where the war is going, it is useful to begin by remembering how wrong many Russian observers have been about its course so far. Back when it started, the Russian newspaper Izvestia promised a Ukrainian defeat within five days of the initial attack. Five weeks after the invasion, Putin’s spokesman claimed that Ukraine’s military was “largely destroyed.” | In considering where the war is going, it is useful to begin by remembering how wrong many Russian observers have been about its course so far. Back when it started, the Russian newspaper Izvestia promised a Ukrainian defeat within five days of the initial attack. Five weeks after the invasion, Putin’s spokesman claimed that Ukraine’s military was “largely destroyed.” |
| But a war intended to undercut Ukraine’s leaders and NATO has instead strengthened both. Bulgaria, Romania and the three Baltic states have all voiced strong opposition to Putin’s acts. Less noticed in the West is how Russia’s war has also alienated former Soviet nations such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. | But a war intended to undercut Ukraine’s leaders and NATO has instead strengthened both. Bulgaria, Romania and the three Baltic states have all voiced strong opposition to Putin’s acts. Less noticed in the West is how Russia’s war has also alienated former Soviet nations such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. |
| To be fair, many non-Russian analysts were also wide of the mark. Just before the war, the Scottish American historian Niall Ferguson wrote that Ukraine would receive “no significant military support from the West” and speculated on the location of Putin’s victory parade. When the invasion began, the German finance minister, who is also an officer in the German Air Force Reserves, reportedly told the Ukrainian ambassador that the war would be over in a matter of hours. The ambassador wept. | To be fair, many non-Russian analysts were also wide of the mark. Just before the war, the Scottish American historian Niall Ferguson wrote that Ukraine would receive “no significant military support from the West” and speculated on the location of Putin’s victory parade. When the invasion began, the German finance minister, who is also an officer in the German Air Force Reserves, reportedly told the Ukrainian ambassador that the war would be over in a matter of hours. The ambassador wept. |
| So who seems to have it right now? | |
| The most thought-provoking of the new crop of books about the war in Ukraine is Alexander Etkind’s quick and incisive RUSSIA AGAINST MODERNITY (Polity, 166 pp., paperback, $19.95). The book is set in the future and cast as a postwar analysis of why Russia was defeated in Ukraine. Etkind, a professor at the Central European University in Vienna, builds his speculations off the flaws of the society Putin built — an antidemocratic, parasitic petrostate that historically relied on fossil fuels like oil and gas for two-thirds of its exports. Their extraction is mainly controlled in Russia by politicians and former security men who value political loyalty far more than managerial competence. |