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| From Ukraine to Aspen, nervousness over a critical moment for the war | From Ukraine to Aspen, nervousness over a critical moment for the war |
| (12 days later) | |
| Weapons and ammunition could make the difference in the war for Ukraine | Weapons and ammunition could make the difference in the war for Ukraine |
| The rarefied setting of Aspen, Colorado, with its mountain views and manicured lawns, is a world away from the minefields and trenches of Ukraine's front-line, but for a few days this past week the two places were connected. | The rarefied setting of Aspen, Colorado, with its mountain views and manicured lawns, is a world away from the minefields and trenches of Ukraine's front-line, but for a few days this past week the two places were connected. |
| Every year, the Aspen Security Forum plays host to the influential elite who shape America's relationship with the wider world. | Every year, the Aspen Security Forum plays host to the influential elite who shape America's relationship with the wider world. |
| And this time, uppermost in the minds of policymakers and think-tankers were questions about the progress of the war in Ukraine. | And this time, uppermost in the minds of policymakers and think-tankers were questions about the progress of the war in Ukraine. |
| President Volodymyr Zelensky even made an appearance - showing up remotely on a vast screen in the auditorium - to express thanks and ask for more help, an acknowledgement that this is a critical period in which much seems to lie in the balance. | President Volodymyr Zelensky even made an appearance - showing up remotely on a vast screen in the auditorium - to express thanks and ask for more help, an acknowledgement that this is a critical period in which much seems to lie in the balance. |
| And arriving in Aspen off the back of three weeks in Ukraine, I found a nervousness not far beneath the surface about not just the pace of Ukraine's current counter-offensive but also about America's long-term commitment. | And arriving in Aspen off the back of three weeks in Ukraine, I found a nervousness not far beneath the surface about not just the pace of Ukraine's current counter-offensive but also about America's long-term commitment. |
| Ukraine is a month into its counter-offensive and it is clear that it's proving, as one speaker put it, a "hard slog" with often just a few metres of ground taken each day. | Ukraine is a month into its counter-offensive and it is clear that it's proving, as one speaker put it, a "hard slog" with often just a few metres of ground taken each day. |
| The first question to President Zelensky was why things were going slower than expected. He patiently explained that the launch of the counter-offensive had been delayed because of a lack of weapons, ammunition and training and that this had given Russia a chance to lay more mines and improve its defences. | The first question to President Zelensky was why things were going slower than expected. He patiently explained that the launch of the counter-offensive had been delayed because of a lack of weapons, ammunition and training and that this had given Russia a chance to lay more mines and improve its defences. |
| But, he said to reassure those that might be growing worried, the moment when actions would "gain pace" was approaching. | But, he said to reassure those that might be growing worried, the moment when actions would "gain pace" was approaching. |
| Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at the US Capitol in 2022, but is support waning? | Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at the US Capitol in 2022, but is support waning? |
| Ukraine relies on US military aid - and you can glimpse tension over what has been given and when. | Ukraine relies on US military aid - and you can glimpse tension over what has been given and when. |
| Where President Zelensky in Aspen renewed his call for more, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan barely an hour or two later said that US military advisers do not believe F-16 fighter jets would play a significant role in current operations. | Where President Zelensky in Aspen renewed his call for more, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan barely an hour or two later said that US military advisers do not believe F-16 fighter jets would play a significant role in current operations. |
| How to teach Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 jets | How to teach Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 jets |
| Other Americans who have been closely involved in the weapons supply also privately say that Ukraine has what it needs for the current counter-offensive and re-arming them again to the same extent in the future may not be so easy. For that reason the next period on the battlefield will be pivotal. | Other Americans who have been closely involved in the weapons supply also privately say that Ukraine has what it needs for the current counter-offensive and re-arming them again to the same extent in the future may not be so easy. For that reason the next period on the battlefield will be pivotal. |
| The war may look slow but it is not a stalemate - or at least not yet. | The war may look slow but it is not a stalemate - or at least not yet. |
| Ukraine is still probing to find a weakness in Russia's defences so it can then apply the forces it has held in reserve in the hope of making a significant breakthrough. | Ukraine is still probing to find a weakness in Russia's defences so it can then apply the forces it has held in reserve in the hope of making a significant breakthrough. |
| If that works, then Ukraine could be in a strong position. But if they cannot break through, then talk of a stalemate may be more accurate and lead to difficult conversations. | If that works, then Ukraine could be in a strong position. But if they cannot break through, then talk of a stalemate may be more accurate and lead to difficult conversations. |
| And war is a battle of wills and of staying power as well as of weapons and ammunition. | And war is a battle of wills and of staying power as well as of weapons and ammunition. |
| At Aspen and in Kyiv, intelligence officials and diplomats are keen to draw attention to signs that the pressure is beginning to tell within Russia. | At Aspen and in Kyiv, intelligence officials and diplomats are keen to draw attention to signs that the pressure is beginning to tell within Russia. |
| That was most evident in Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny a month ago with his complaints about the failures of Moscow's military leadership. Other generals have been sacked amid reports of low morale and frustrations among Russian troops and their commanders. | That was most evident in Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny a month ago with his complaints about the failures of Moscow's military leadership. Other generals have been sacked amid reports of low morale and frustrations among Russian troops and their commanders. |
| Putin may still seek revenge on Wagner boss - CIA chief | Putin may still seek revenge on Wagner boss - CIA chief |
| What is Russia's Wagner group, and where are its fighters? | What is Russia's Wagner group, and where are its fighters? |
| Both Ukrainian and American officials are keen to highlight those fissures and suggest they may deepen. | Both Ukrainian and American officials are keen to highlight those fissures and suggest they may deepen. |
| In Ukraine, there is a clear sense of determination from a population that has suffered and that wants to regain the territory that Russia has taken. No one appears in the mood to talk about negotiations or compromise. | In Ukraine, there is a clear sense of determination from a population that has suffered and that wants to regain the territory that Russia has taken. No one appears in the mood to talk about negotiations or compromise. |
| Still, there are hints of cracks in Western support. | Still, there are hints of cracks in Western support. |
| Members of the US Congress spoke openly at Aspen of how their constituents could not place Ukraine on a map and questioned the scale of the financial commitment. | Members of the US Congress spoke openly at Aspen of how their constituents could not place Ukraine on a map and questioned the scale of the financial commitment. |
| Seventy Republicans in Congress had voted to end future assistance to Ukraine a week earlier - more than many expected. In the Republican primary to pick a presidential candidate, saying money should be spent in the US and not abroad makes for an easy applause line. | Seventy Republicans in Congress had voted to end future assistance to Ukraine a week earlier - more than many expected. In the Republican primary to pick a presidential candidate, saying money should be spent in the US and not abroad makes for an easy applause line. |
| The looming shadow of Donald Trump also hung over Aspen with questions about what his possible re-election would mean not just for Ukraine but for America's position in the world and relationship with its allies. | The looming shadow of Donald Trump also hung over Aspen with questions about what his possible re-election would mean not just for Ukraine but for America's position in the world and relationship with its allies. |
| Some Republicans, like Representatives Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene, do not support Ukraine assistance | Some Republicans, like Representatives Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene, do not support Ukraine assistance |
| America's allies are aware - and privately express their concerns - about the risks of support for Ukraine eroding, especially as the US heads into an election next year. | America's allies are aware - and privately express their concerns - about the risks of support for Ukraine eroding, especially as the US heads into an election next year. |
| UK defence secretary Ben Wallace caused a stir at the Nato summit when he talked of Ukraine's need to show more gratitude. | UK defence secretary Ben Wallace caused a stir at the Nato summit when he talked of Ukraine's need to show more gratitude. |
| What he seemed to mean was that Ukraine needed to be more mindful of the debates in Washington DC, especially after President Zelensky's tweet criticising the lack of a clear path to Nato membership. | What he seemed to mean was that Ukraine needed to be more mindful of the debates in Washington DC, especially after President Zelensky's tweet criticising the lack of a clear path to Nato membership. |
| The UK's foreign secretary, James Cleverly, travelled to Aspen to make his case. | The UK's foreign secretary, James Cleverly, travelled to Aspen to make his case. |
| "We must not allow ourselves to be seduced by the Russian propaganda that this is somehow a stalemate," he told the audience. | "We must not allow ourselves to be seduced by the Russian propaganda that this is somehow a stalemate," he told the audience. |
| His message was that the US needs to be less defensive about its support for Ukraine and to do more to make that case, including to its own public. | His message was that the US needs to be less defensive about its support for Ukraine and to do more to make that case, including to its own public. |
| All of that suggests that there is an understanding in both Ukraine and amongst the Aspen elite that the next few weeks and months will be pivotal. | All of that suggests that there is an understanding in both Ukraine and amongst the Aspen elite that the next few weeks and months will be pivotal. |
| They are likely to determine whether Ukraine can break through militarily, whether cracks in Russia deepen and whether Western - and particularly American - support holds up. | They are likely to determine whether Ukraine can break through militarily, whether cracks in Russia deepen and whether Western - and particularly American - support holds up. |