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Afghan election scenarios Afghan poll: Possible outcomes
(3 days later)
Afghanistan's Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is set to announce the results of its investigation into allegations of fraud during August's presidential election. The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has published the results of its investigation into fraud in the Afghan presidential election. The BBC understands the findings indicate that Hamid Karzai did not gain enough votes to win the election outright. According to poll rules, there should now be a second round.
It has been recounting a sample of suspect ballots and its findings could force a second round of voting.
BBC News examines possible scenarios.BBC News examines possible scenarios.
KARZAI IS DECLARED THE WINNER
As results stand presidential incumbent Hamid Karzai leads preliminary results with about 55% of the vote, considerably ahead of former foreign minister Dr Adbdullah Abdullah, who has 28%.
Karzai questions vote fraud panel High stakes in Afghan vote recount
A candidate needs to secure more than 50% of the vote to avoid a second round run-off.
The votes that are confirmed by the ECC to be suspect are likely to be invalidated by Afghanistan's election commission.
If Mr Karzai retains more than 50% of the vote even after votes are invalidated then he will be confirmed as the victor and there will be no second round of voting.
Hamid Karzai would then embark on another five-year term as president.
This result may anger supporters of his nearest challenger Dr Abdullah - primarily Tajiks and Uzbeks based in the north of the country - where Dr Abdullah won the majority of the vote.
There is the possibility of demonstrations by people in these areas angered by the outcome of the recount.
But this would also depend on the margin of victory for Hamid Karzai.
It is still not clear if Dr Abdullah will accept the results should Mr Karzai be declared the winner even after the recount.
AFGHANISTAN PREPARES FOR A RUN-OFFAFGHANISTAN PREPARES FOR A RUN-OFF
If votes for Hamid Karzai fall below 50% after ballots are invalidated then the constitution states that there has to be a second round run-off between the two candidates with the most votes. If no candidate secures more than 50% of ballots then the constitution states there has to be a second round run-off between the two with the most votes.
AFGHAN FRAUD ALLEGATIONS 30 Sep: UN recalls envoy Peter Galbraith following row over the vote recount process15 Sep: ECC chief says 10% of votes need to be recounted8 Sep: Poll complaints body orders some recounts nationwide8 Sep: IEC says votes from 600 polling stations "quarantined"3 Sep: Claims 30,000 fraudulent votes cast for Karzai in Kandahar30 Aug: 2,000 fraud allegations are probed; 600 deemed serious20 Aug: Election day and claims 80,000 ballots were filled out fraudulently for Karzai in Ghazni18 Aug: Ballot cards sold openly and voter bribes offered href="/2/hi/south_asia/8244125.stm">Election: Main fraud allegations href="/2/hi/south_asia/8278868.stm">High stakes in Afghan vote recount
This has to be held within two weeks of the announcement. This has to be held within two weeks of the announcement of a result.
But the rapid onset of winter from early November will make matters difficult. Severe winter weather is likely to make parts of the country almost inaccessible. But the rapid onset of winter from early November will make matters difficult, with parts of the country almost inaccessible.
There is fear that the journey to a local polling station in the depths of winter will simply be too gruelling for many Afghans. There is a fear that the journey to a local polling station in the depths of winter will simply be too gruelling for many Afghans.
In addition, the authorities will have to once again mobilise election officials, polling stations, polling cards, security and organise the collection of ballot boxes and counting.In addition, the authorities will have to once again mobilise election officials, polling stations, polling cards, security and organise the collection of ballot boxes and counting.
Decisions about the location of polling stations and the staff they hire to man them will also have to be made to prevent repeating mistakes made in the first round.Decisions about the location of polling stations and the staff they hire to man them will also have to be made to prevent repeating mistakes made in the first round.
The election itself took months to plan. The run-off would have a matter of weeks. But authorities are reported to have already printed ballot papers.The election itself took months to plan. The run-off would have a matter of weeks. But authorities are reported to have already printed ballot papers.
Correspondents say there is no guarantee that the authorities could prevent the security breaches and corruption that marred the first round. Many analysts say Mr Karzai, a Pashtun from the country's largest ethnic group, would probably still win any second round.
But delaying a vote until the spring could leave Afghanistan in political limbo at a time when major Western powers are pondering whether to send more troops or not - leaving the way open for militants to make their mark. Correspondents say there is no guarantee, however, that the authorities could prevent the security breaches and corruption that marred the first round.
But delaying a vote until the spring would leave Afghanistan in political limbo at a time when major Western powers are deciding whether to send more troops or not - leaving the way open for militants to make their mark.
Many analysts suggest a substantial delay is highly unlikely.Many analysts suggest a substantial delay is highly unlikely.
ECC FINDINGS ARE DISPUTED
It is also possible that Afghanistan's election commission or one of the main challengers will not accept the findings of the fraud investigation.
AFGHAN FRAUD ALLEGATIONS 30 Sep: UN recalls envoy Peter Galbraith following row over the vote recount process15 Sep: ECC chief says 10% of votes need to be recounted8 Sep: Poll complaints body orders some recounts nationwide8 Sep: IEC says votes from 600 polling stations "quarantined"3 Sep: Claims 30,000 fraudulent votes cast for Karzai in Kandahar30 Aug: 2,000 fraud allegations are probed; 600 deemed serious20 Aug: Election day and claims 80,000 ballots were filled out fraudulently for Karzai in Ghazni18 Aug: Ballot cards sold openly and voter bribes offered Election: Main fraud allegations
They could decide to mount a legal challenge to the ECC's findings.
The legal position is not clear. As things stand the election commission is bound to accept the ECC's findings and invalidate results accordingly.
However, recent media reports suggest Hamid Karzai may not accept the results and could launch a Supreme Court challenge to the ECC's findings - which would further postpone a final result.
Mr Karzai led preliminary results with about 55% of the vote, considerably ahead of former foreign minister Dr Adbdullah Abdullah, who was on 28%.
It is not clear on what basis any challenges to the ECC's findings would be made. But some analysts say the methodology it used could be disputed.
An Afghan member of the five-member ECC panel recently resigned saying that Afghans were not involved in decision-making on the panel. Dr Abdullah's team accused Hamid Karzai of being behind the resignation.
A UNITY GOVERNMENT BRINGS OPPONENTS TOGETHERA UNITY GOVERNMENT BRINGS OPPONENTS TOGETHER
Another option which has been mooted is that the main challengers form a power-sharing government. Another option which has been suggested is that the main challengers form a power-sharing government.
Many ballot boxes were quarantined after the elections class="" href="/2/hi/south_asia/8302288.stm">Afghan quits election fraud panel class="" href="/2/hi/south_asia/8304592.stm">Karzai questions vote fraud panel
Even if Mr Karzai's vote drops below 50% there is the possibility that a deal is brokered whereby members of Dr Abdullah's team are somehow included in a Karzai cabinet. There has been intensive diplomacy in recent days, aimed at ensuring the UN-backed election process is respected.
Dr Abdullah himself may even be included even though he has previously ruled himself out of such an arrangement. Some observers say diplomats have also been pushing the protagonists to reach a deal that would avoid more voting.
However, in recent days he has appeared to have softened his stance. Mr Karzai has been insisting that he be declared the winner and then he will include members of Dr Abdullah's team in his cabinet.
Dr Abdullah at first ruled out negotiations but in recent days he appears to have softened his stance.
In comments to the press on Wednesday, Dr Abdullah said: "Once results are announced, I would be open to dialogue."In comments to the press on Wednesday, Dr Abdullah said: "Once results are announced, I would be open to dialogue."
And in an interview on US television earlier this week, Mr Karzai said that for the past seven years, he had been known as "a man who brings inclusiveness". And in an interview on US television last week, Mr Karzai said that for the past seven years, he had been known as "a man who brings inclusiveness".
"The unity of [the] Afghan people is paramount here and we will continue to strive for that," he said."The unity of [the] Afghan people is paramount here and we will continue to strive for that," he said.
TRADITIONAL LOYA JIRGA TO RESTORE LEGITIMACYTRADITIONAL LOYA JIRGA TO RESTORE LEGITIMACY
Some analysts have suggested that one possible course of action is that a loya jirga - a traditional tribal gathering of senior politicians and tribal leaders - meets to broker a solution to the impasse at some point in the political process.Some analysts have suggested that one possible course of action is that a loya jirga - a traditional tribal gathering of senior politicians and tribal leaders - meets to broker a solution to the impasse at some point in the political process.
This could happen at any time whether or not Hamid Karzai retains 50% of the vote after fraudulent ballots are discarded. Many ballot boxes were quarantined after the elections
This could happen at any time, whether or not there is a second round after fraudulent ballots are discarded.
One possible scenario is that a run-off is called, Mr Karzai wins a second round, but he still convenes a loya jirga at the end of it all to suggest solutions which could restore legitimacy and credibility to a bedevilled process.One possible scenario is that a run-off is called, Mr Karzai wins a second round, but he still convenes a loya jirga at the end of it all to suggest solutions which could restore legitimacy and credibility to a bedevilled process.