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How fast is the UK's economy growing and what is GDP? How fast is the UK's economy growing and what is GDP?
(about 1 month later)
The UK's economy grew by more than expected at a rate of 0.5% in February, according to the latest official figures. The UK's economy grew by 0.7% in the first three months of 2025, according to the latest official figures, which was more than expected.
The strength of the economy affects things like pay increases for workers and the amount of tax the government can raise to pay for services.The strength of the economy affects things like pay increases for workers and the amount of tax the government can raise to pay for services.
What is GDP and how is it worked out?What is GDP and how is it worked out?
GDP stands for gross domestic product, and is a measure of all the economic activity of companies, governments and people in a country. GDP stands for gross domestic product, and is a measure of all the economic activity of companies, governments, and people in a country.
In the UK, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) publishes new GDP figures every month, external. However, quarterly figures - covering three months at a time - are considered more important. In the UK, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes new GDP figures every month, external. However, quarterly figures - covering three months at a time - are considered more important.
Most economists, politicians and businesses like to see GDP rising steadily. Most economists, politicians, and businesses like to see GDP rising steadily.
That's because it usually means people are spending more, extra jobs are created, more tax is paid and workers get better pay rises. That's because it usually means people are spending more, extra jobs are created, more tax is paid, and workers get better pay rises.
When GDP is falling, it means the economy is shrinking - which can be bad news for businesses and workers.When GDP is falling, it means the economy is shrinking - which can be bad news for businesses and workers.
If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, that is known as a recession, which can lead to pay freezes and job losses.If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, that is known as a recession, which can lead to pay freezes and job losses.
How much money does the UK government raise and spend each year?
Where does the government borrow billions from?Where does the government borrow billions from?
What is happening to the UK economy?What is happening to the UK economy?
The UK grew strongly in the first half of 2024, when the economy was rebounding from the brief recession at the end of 2023. Many economists and politicians are concerned that the UK economy is not growing fast enough.
GDP increased by 0.7% between January and March, and 0.5% between April and June. When the Labour government took power in July 2024, it made growth its top priority.
However, growth has slowed since then. The economy had fallen into the recession at the end of 2023 but rebounded in the first half of 2024.
The economy had zero growth between July and September last year, before picking up slightly in the final three months of 2024. Since then, growth has been sluggish.
February's uptick was driven by a boost in manufacturing and production. Although the UK economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025, analysts warn that the disruption and uncertainty caused by the US trade tariffs which began in April could limit growth in the later part of the year.
The government has made economic growth a key political priority. This is despite the recent deal with the US, which reduced or removed tariffs on some UK exports, including cars, steel and aluminium.
However, the Bank of England has halved its growth forecast for the year ahead. In February it said it expects the economy to grow by 0.75% during 2025, down from its previous estimate of 1.5%. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for 2025 global growth - and reduced its prediction for the UK from 1.6% to 1.1%.
It is concerned about the impact of higher inflation in the UK as a result of higher wage and national insurance costs for employers, and increased energy and water bills for consumers. US trade tariffs could also put prices up. That is close to the 1% forecast that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - which monitors the government's spending plans and performance – made in March.
On 26 March, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - which monitors the government's spending plans and performance - also halved its growth forecast for this year to 1%. Economic forecasts are not always accurate, but predictions from organisations such as the IMF and OBR are looked at closely.
Economic forecasts are not always accurate but predictions from the Bank of England and the OBR are looked at closely. What tariffs has Trump announced and why?
UK economy grew more than expected in February
Low growth and rising prices - it's looking gloomy for the UK
How does GDP affect me?How does GDP affect me?
If GDP is going up steadily, people pay more in tax because they're earning and spending more.If GDP is going up steadily, people pay more in tax because they're earning and spending more.
This means more money for the government, which it can choose to spend on public services, such as schools, police and hospitals.This means more money for the government, which it can choose to spend on public services, such as schools, police and hospitals.
When the economy shrinks and a country goes into recession, these things can go into reverse.When the economy shrinks and a country goes into recession, these things can go into reverse.
Governments tend to get less money in tax, which means they may decide to freeze or cut public spending, or put taxes up.Governments tend to get less money in tax, which means they may decide to freeze or cut public spending, or put taxes up.
In 2020, the Covid pandemic caused the most severe UK recession for more than 300 years, which forced the government to borrow hundreds of billions of pounds to support the economy.In 2020, the Covid pandemic caused the most severe UK recession for more than 300 years, which forced the government to borrow hundreds of billions of pounds to support the economy.
Why are prices rising in the UK? How quickly are prices rising?
When will interest rates fall?When will interest rates fall?
How is GDP measured?How is GDP measured?
GDP can be measured in three ways:GDP can be measured in three ways:
Output: The total value of the goods and services produced by all sectors of the economy - agriculture, manufacturing, energy, construction, the service sector and governmentOutput: The total value of the goods and services produced by all sectors of the economy - agriculture, manufacturing, energy, construction, the service sector and government
Expenditure: The value of goods and services bought by households and by government, investment in machinery and buildings - this also includes the value of exports, minus importsExpenditure: The value of goods and services bought by households and by government, investment in machinery and buildings - this also includes the value of exports, minus imports
Income: The value of the income generated, mostly in terms of profits and wagesIncome: The value of the income generated, mostly in terms of profits and wages
In the UK, the ONS publishes one single measure of GDP, which is calculated using all three measurements.In the UK, the ONS publishes one single measure of GDP, which is calculated using all three measurements.
But early estimates mainly use the output measure, using data collected from thousands of companies.But early estimates mainly use the output measure, using data collected from thousands of companies.
Why does the GDP figure sometimes change?Why does the GDP figure sometimes change?
The UK produces one of the quickest estimates of GDP of the major economies, about 40 days after the quarter in question.The UK produces one of the quickest estimates of GDP of the major economies, about 40 days after the quarter in question.
At that stage, only about 60% of the data is available, so the figure is revised as more information comes in.At that stage, only about 60% of the data is available, so the figure is revised as more information comes in.
The ONS publishes more information about this on its website, external.The ONS publishes more information about this on its website, external.
What are the limitations of the GDP figure?What are the limitations of the GDP figure?
GDP doesn't tell the whole story:GDP doesn't tell the whole story:
the hidden economy: unpaid work such as caring for children or elderly relatives isn't captured
inequality: rising GDP could result from the richest getting richer, rather than everyone becoming better off, and some people could be worse off The hidden economy: unpaid work such as caring for children or elderly relatives isn't captured
living standards: if the population is also growing, increased GDP can still mean less money per person, which can reduce people's living standards. This is why the GDP per capita measure is important Inequality: rising GDP could result from the richest getting richer, rather than everyone becoming better off, and some people could be worse off
Living standards: if the population is also growing, increased GDP can still mean less money per person, which can reduce people's living standards. This is why the GDP per capita measure is important
Official GDP figures don't take into account unpaid work like looking after childrenOfficial GDP figures don't take into account unpaid work like looking after children
Some critics also argue that GDP doesn't take into account whether the economic growth it measures is sustainable, or the environmental damage it might do.Some critics also argue that GDP doesn't take into account whether the economic growth it measures is sustainable, or the environmental damage it might do.
Alternative measures have been developed which try to capture this.Alternative measures have been developed which try to capture this.
Since 2010, the ONS has also measured well-being, external alongside economic growth. This assesses health, relationships, education and skills, as well as people's personal finances and the environment.Since 2010, the ONS has also measured well-being, external alongside economic growth. This assesses health, relationships, education and skills, as well as people's personal finances and the environment.
But despite its limitations, GDP is still the most widely-used measure for most government decisions and international comparisons.But despite its limitations, GDP is still the most widely-used measure for most government decisions and international comparisons.