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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
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| A tale of how it turned out right | A tale of how it turned out right |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| VIEWPOINT Andrew Simms | VIEWPOINT Andrew Simms |
| Western governments, including the UK's, are desperate to restore the global economy along "business as usual" lines. But, argues Andrew Simms, that is a short-sighted approach; a radical, green-tinged redevelopment would bring much bigger environmental, social and economic benefits. | Western governments, including the UK's, are desperate to restore the global economy along "business as usual" lines. But, argues Andrew Simms, that is a short-sighted approach; a radical, green-tinged redevelopment would bring much bigger environmental, social and economic benefits. |
| If the only navigation system you have keeps directing you over a cliff, it's time to reprogram it | If the only navigation system you have keeps directing you over a cliff, it's time to reprogram it |
| If someone offered you a plan that would get rich countries on to a radical path of deep, immediate carbon cuts to tackle climate change and also solved a great swathe of social problems, would you take it? | If someone offered you a plan that would get rich countries on to a radical path of deep, immediate carbon cuts to tackle climate change and also solved a great swathe of social problems, would you take it? |
| A team of scientists and economists at the New Economics Foundation (nef) has come up with one. | A team of scientists and economists at the New Economics Foundation (nef) has come up with one. |
| It's called The Great Transition. | It's called The Great Transition. |
| It provides a blueprint - or rather, a greenprint - for how the UK can make a step-change in delivering quality of life for all, whilst living within our collective environmental means. | It provides a blueprint - or rather, a greenprint - for how the UK can make a step-change in delivering quality of life for all, whilst living within our collective environmental means. |
| What may shock some people is that it will do this even as the UK economy stops growing in a conventional economic manner and GDP falls significantly. | What may shock some people is that it will do this even as the UK economy stops growing in a conventional economic manner and GDP falls significantly. |
| Economic madness | Economic madness |
| For decades, the addiction of business and politics to economic growth has steamrollered all attempts to make the economy environmentally sustainable. | For decades, the addiction of business and politics to economic growth has steamrollered all attempts to make the economy environmentally sustainable. |
| The assumption of "growth forever" sits behind every major industrialised economy. Yet, as the great economist Kenneth Boulding put it: "Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist." | The assumption of "growth forever" sits behind every major industrialised economy. Yet, as the great economist Kenneth Boulding put it: "Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist." |
| Electric cars: enough of a bright spark for green transition? | Electric cars: enough of a bright spark for green transition? |
| One thing is sure: in spite of being well-intended, the recent Climate Change Committee call for more electric cars and nuclear power was a disastrously inadequate distraction from the type, scale and speed of measures actually needed. | One thing is sure: in spite of being well-intended, the recent Climate Change Committee call for more electric cars and nuclear power was a disastrously inadequate distraction from the type, scale and speed of measures actually needed. |
| So how did we find this holy grail of policymakers - a genuine win-win in which environmental imperatives, social objectives and the economy are brought together? | So how did we find this holy grail of policymakers - a genuine win-win in which environmental imperatives, social objectives and the economy are brought together? |
| In short, by coming up with the equivalent of a new economic sat-nav. Because if the only navigation system you have keeps directing you over a cliff, it's time to reprogram it. | In short, by coming up with the equivalent of a new economic sat-nav. Because if the only navigation system you have keeps directing you over a cliff, it's time to reprogram it. |
| Only by including in economic calculations the social and environmental costs of business-as-usual can we properly assess the alternatives. | Only by including in economic calculations the social and environmental costs of business-as-usual can we properly assess the alternatives. |
| Alarm warming | Alarm warming |
| At one extreme, of course, allowing runaway climate change to occur is infinitely expensive and therefore unthinkable. | At one extreme, of course, allowing runaway climate change to occur is infinitely expensive and therefore unthinkable. |
| The great re-skilling of society... could even break the zombie walk of consumer society and bring us alive again | The great re-skilling of society... could even break the zombie walk of consumer society and bring us alive again |
| So no cost below that should be too much to avoid it. | So no cost below that should be too much to avoid it. |
| But even over the next few decades, simply by factoring-in reasonable, even highly conservative, estimates of how much we can save by tackling social and environmental problems with proven solutions, the results are astonishing. | But even over the next few decades, simply by factoring-in reasonable, even highly conservative, estimates of how much we can save by tackling social and environmental problems with proven solutions, the results are astonishing. |
| Despite the destructive economic events of the last two years and the fact that we're now, perhaps, no more than 86 months away from a new, more perilous phase of global warming, governments are preparing a return to business-as-usual. | Despite the destructive economic events of the last two years and the fact that we're now, perhaps, no more than 86 months away from a new, more perilous phase of global warming, governments are preparing a return to business-as-usual. |
| The costs of doing so, we forecast, are huge. | The costs of doing so, we forecast, are huge. |
| Between 2010 and 2050 the cumulative cost of climate change would range from £1.6 trillion to £2.5 trillion ($2.6 trillion to $4.1 trillion). | Between 2010 and 2050 the cumulative cost of climate change would range from £1.6 trillion to £2.5 trillion ($2.6 trillion to $4.1 trillion). |
| And the cumulative cost of addressing social problems associated with high levels of inequality is £4.5 trillion. | And the cumulative cost of addressing social problems associated with high levels of inequality is £4.5 trillion. |
| Danish standards of equality are less of a burden to society | Danish standards of equality are less of a burden to society |
| The Great Transition tackles climate and inequality at the same time. | The Great Transition tackles climate and inequality at the same time. |
| It puts the UK economy on a rapid decarbonisation diet that puts us on track to playing our fair part in an effective global deal. | It puts the UK economy on a rapid decarbonisation diet that puts us on track to playing our fair part in an effective global deal. |
| These cuts will avoid between £0.4 trillion and £1.3 trillion in environmental costs. | These cuts will avoid between £0.4 trillion and £1.3 trillion in environmental costs. |
| Simultaneously, progressive redistribution toward Danish levels of equality, we calculate, could generate £7.35 trillion of social value. | Simultaneously, progressive redistribution toward Danish levels of equality, we calculate, could generate £7.35 trillion of social value. |
| What is saved and generated in terms of cost and income more than compensates for the drop in GDP that happens as we consume fewer resources. | What is saved and generated in terms of cost and income more than compensates for the drop in GDP that happens as we consume fewer resources. |
| Mending Britain | Mending Britain |
| How will it happen? First we need to get a real picture of what is going on in the economy. That means having a proper set of accounts that include real environmental and social value. | How will it happen? First we need to get a real picture of what is going on in the economy. That means having a proper set of accounts that include real environmental and social value. |
| If we do that, what looks like radical and expensive change turns out to be a new direction we cannot afford to miss. | If we do that, what looks like radical and expensive change turns out to be a new direction we cannot afford to miss. |
| This is what we call the "great revaluing" - ensuring that prices reflect true social and environmental costs. | This is what we call the "great revaluing" - ensuring that prices reflect true social and environmental costs. |
| Inability to adapt to new conditions can spell the end of a society | Inability to adapt to new conditions can spell the end of a society |
| Next, following on from the ground-breaking, comprehensive work of social epidemiologists Richard Wilkinson and Kate Picket, whose work demonstrates that more equal societies almost always do better - against a host of indicators ranging from crime to health to the environment - we propose a "great redistribution" to mend so-called "broken Britain". | Next, following on from the ground-breaking, comprehensive work of social epidemiologists Richard Wilkinson and Kate Picket, whose work demonstrates that more equal societies almost always do better - against a host of indicators ranging from crime to health to the environment - we propose a "great redistribution" to mend so-called "broken Britain". |
| In the face of recent, catastrophic market failures, the "great re-balancing" then sets out a new productive relationship between markets, society and the state. | In the face of recent, catastrophic market failures, the "great re-balancing" then sets out a new productive relationship between markets, society and the state. |
| It builds a more effective "ecology of finance" so that money and investment flows to where it is most needed - such as the low carbon transition of our energy, housing and transport systems. | It builds a more effective "ecology of finance" so that money and investment flows to where it is most needed - such as the low carbon transition of our energy, housing and transport systems. |
| A national Green Investment Bank, for example, with start-up funding from windfall taxes on fossil fuel company profits, could provide initial capital. | A national Green Investment Bank, for example, with start-up funding from windfall taxes on fossil fuel company profits, could provide initial capital. |
| It's a big, bold plan that tears up business-as-usual. | It's a big, bold plan that tears up business-as-usual. |
| The details can be argued over; but given the scale of the challenge, we believe that this is one time when we really can say "there is no alternative". | The details can be argued over; but given the scale of the challenge, we believe that this is one time when we really can say "there is no alternative". |
| Chilling tale | Chilling tale |
| All change is threatening. Change to new ways of living - even if familiar to people in other cultures and different generations - we find hard to imagine. | All change is threatening. Change to new ways of living - even if familiar to people in other cultures and different generations - we find hard to imagine. |
| But failures of imagination can be fatal. | But failures of imagination can be fatal. |
| When Greenland was occupied by Icelandic and Scandinavian settlers in the early Middle Ages they soon made themselves at home with familiar customs and methods of food cultivation. | When Greenland was occupied by Icelandic and Scandinavian settlers in the early Middle Ages they soon made themselves at home with familiar customs and methods of food cultivation. |
| When the great chill bit deep in the 15th Century, instead of adapting by learning from the climate-adjusted indigenous people, who they dismissed as skraelings (wretches), they clung to what they knew, and died out. | When the great chill bit deep in the 15th Century, instead of adapting by learning from the climate-adjusted indigenous people, who they dismissed as skraelings (wretches), they clung to what they knew, and died out. |
| Far from that grim scenario, today the great re-skilling of society to manage this transition could even break the zombie walk of consumer society and bring us alive again as individuals and communities. | Far from that grim scenario, today the great re-skilling of society to manage this transition could even break the zombie walk of consumer society and bring us alive again as individuals and communities. |
| The Great Transition is a tale of how it turned out right. | The Great Transition is a tale of how it turned out right. |
| Andrew Simms is policy director of nef and a co-author of The Great Transition | Andrew Simms is policy director of nef and a co-author of The Great Transition |
| The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website | The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website |
| Do you agree with Andrew Simms? Does the UK - and other countries - need a Great Transition to a new way of measuring and stimulating value? What are the chances of governments making this kind of change? Or is continuing with GDP-oriented "business as usual" an acceptable way to progress? | Do you agree with Andrew Simms? Does the UK - and other countries - need a Great Transition to a new way of measuring and stimulating value? What are the chances of governments making this kind of change? Or is continuing with GDP-oriented "business as usual" an acceptable way to progress? |
| Brilliant. This kind of re-thinking of the way the economy and society works is vital. The current obsession with constant growth will cause, and arguably already is causing, huge problems. Sustainability is not just a buzz word for hippy tree-huggers, it's a fantastically simple and important concept in how everything (and I do mean everything) works, either it's sustainable, or it eventually collapses. However, the people in power are old, educated in a era when such concepts were unthinkable and growth was the only way. However, will anyone listen?Chris, Bristol | |
| " start-up funding from windfall taxes on fossil fuel company profits It's a big, bold plan that tears up business-as-usual..." Um, no. Taking fossil fuel money to fund ineffective fossil fuel replacement and conservation initiatives IS business as usual. ('How fire can be domesticated': http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/ )G.R.L. Cowan, Cobourg, Canada | |
| Air headed enviro-communist tripe.David J. Ruck, Cambridge | |
| we need Total Cost Accounting (TCA), for everything. Businesses produce & sell products based on the costs of manufcturing. The waste, if disposed of "responsibly", costs the producer extra. Waste that goes into the environment usually costs the producer nothing and the clean up is paid for by the taxpayer. TCA would show that responsible disposal is more economic because the costs (and taxes) aren't imposed by stealth or criminality. pete, london | |
| I'll bet that Andrew Simms is another person who has spent his entire adult life living off the tax-payer. This piece is designed to help ensure his continued ability to do so. I have no doubt that, twenty years ago, he would have been espousing world socialism as the obvious solution to all mankind's problems, and pointing to the success of the Soviet Union as clear proof that capitalism was wrong. So, no, we absolutely do not need a Great Transition, or a Great Leap Forward, or any other euphemism for allowing these parasites to take over the free world. Freddy, | |
| The system needs to morph and do so quickly and seamlessly. The biggest block to that is most unfortunately the control my country, the US, has over the world finances by its control of the dollar as predominant currency of trade. It may be necessary for nations of the world to grab the reins from this run away team by reestablishing a new world currency that takes environmental responsibility and preservation of the common good seriously and lets the derivatives trading US fall in the waste basket of world history if it can not change.Dale Lanan, Longmont, Colorado, USA | |
| An economy that is pro environment and anti global warming is an economy in which consumerism is at a minimum. Therefore, it is a misconception to suggest that there can be a green economy in our current framework where globalisation is not controlled. This is the danger which the governments that will attend the Copenhagen United Nations' Climate Change Conference 2009 must contend with. S. PEREZ-GOLDZVEIG THEHOUSEOFBRANCHOFGOLDS. PEREZ-GOLDZVEIG, London | |
| This sounds like a lot of hand-waving with grand intentions but few actual details. Any real solution to the climate problems needs a healthy dose of what this essay lacks - pragmatism.Peter Saffrey, Glasgow, UK | |
| Yes, absolutely. Unfortunately, I don't think that the people who have the real power to change things are.Keith, Sheffield, UK | |
| This initiative has never been more urgent. There is real hope in it. The present system uses economic activity as the only measure, which is a bit like inspecting a cricket pitch, and being satisfied by the knowledge that it is 22 yards long. There is a lot more to a good life than 'how much?'. As Andrew Simms points out, Kenneth Boulding had it right. Tom Barker, Chester, England | |
| The telling line in this article is the last - The Great Transition is a Tale- yes it is a story, based on opinion rather than fact - that reduces the real debate about global warming - over since 2005 and now in a 30 year cooling phase - being used to promote a singular argument for the movement of finances into their own category.JohnS, South Coast | |
| "Between 2010 and 2050 the cumulative cost of climate change would range from £1.6 trillion to £2.5 trillion" Sounds a lot, but its about 0.1% of global GDP over this period. So actually not very much at all. Which is why I don't expect much to change until we get to about 3 or 4 degress of warming. Then people will start to take climate change seriously.Paul , | |
| WOW !!! That's really exciting !! . . er, exactly what are they talking about ? I followed the catchy analogy about the sat nav heading towards the cliff . . . - yes we know we have got the wrong values set; we are ripping up the planet whilst we are still standing on it; that bit is pretty obvious. And I followed their example of what happens to itinerant 15th Century Norsemen that didn't adapt to their chilly bits . . . . I got that bit too. - oh, er, is this the same 'Danish Society' that is now getting it right - I am puzzled ? However, not to wander off the point myself; What exactly do they propose to "do" ? - the whole "actual solution" bit seems a teeny little bit lost in the jargon-fuzzy-logic-buzzword-scenario-speak . . . ?? . . where do publish this "Great Transition" so we can read this marvelous revelation; and we can get on with doing whatever it is that they actually intend "do" ? - I was a teeny bit confused about that "doing" bit ? Did these guys just 'save the planet' . . . or simply go off on their own private "stimulating" jargon m*ste*ba*ion ? Speaking personally, it seems like a case of; "catchy title; but it might need a little bit more work in the actual pagey-bits inside ?" Stevensteven walker, Penzance | |
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