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| A tale of small numbers | A tale of small numbers |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| Politicians like to talk big, but perhaps we - and even they - might have a better idea what they were up to if they counted small, suggests Michael Blastland in his regular column. | Politicians like to talk big, but perhaps we - and even they - might have a better idea what they were up to if they counted small, suggests Michael Blastland in his regular column. |
| The language of politics is billions. Billions up, billions down, billions more, billions cut. Feeling dizzy about the state of the public finances when one telephone number of pounds succeeds another? | The language of politics is billions. Billions up, billions down, billions more, billions cut. Feeling dizzy about the state of the public finances when one telephone number of pounds succeeds another? |
| Here's a simple alternative, a language politicians seldom use, perhaps because it would be revealing. This language uses small numbers like two, for example. Not a number to excite headline writers. But to see the big picture, you need small numbers. | Here's a simple alternative, a language politicians seldom use, perhaps because it would be revealing. This language uses small numbers like two, for example. Not a number to excite headline writers. But to see the big picture, you need small numbers. |
| Here's how they work. Governments can only spend what they tax or borrow. They can only tax a share of what we, the public, already have. So it helps to know what share they want and then how they plan to share that out between all the things they want to do. Note that we're talking shares here, or proportions. Not billions. | Here's how they work. Governments can only spend what they tax or borrow. They can only tax a share of what we, the public, already have. So it helps to know what share they want and then how they plan to share that out between all the things they want to do. Note that we're talking shares here, or proportions. Not billions. |
| We used to spend four on defence, now we spend two | We used to spend four on defence, now we spend two |
| So two is about the percentage share of what the nation has each year that the government spends on defence. Two is also the percentage share of GDP by which defence has been cut in the last 20 years. | |
| That is, the share of what we have as a nation that we devote to defence has roughly halved, from four to two. The Conservatives took it down most of the way, while Labour seemed content with that and then let it drift a smidgen further. | That is, the share of what we have as a nation that we devote to defence has roughly halved, from four to two. The Conservatives took it down most of the way, while Labour seemed content with that and then let it drift a smidgen further. |
| Two is also roughly the extra percentage share of national income that the government put into health over about five years to provide those record quantities of billions we were often told about. | Two is also roughly the extra percentage share of national income that the government put into health over about five years to provide those record quantities of billions we were often told about. |
| Using small numbers like these enables us to see how the money we have available is moved around over time. It also shows us how big government is - a bit over 40 (out of 100) depending whether you measure with or without recession - and how much it borrows compared with its income. | Using small numbers like these enables us to see how the money we have available is moved around over time. It also shows us how big government is - a bit over 40 (out of 100) depending whether you measure with or without recession - and how much it borrows compared with its income. |
| If someone says they want more for defence, or more for education, we can say "what share?" or "and what other share does this share come from?" A bit more of the taxpayers' share, a bit more of the share for transport? Tricky, only 1.5 goes to transport as it is. | If someone says they want more for defence, or more for education, we can say "what share?" or "and what other share does this share come from?" A bit more of the taxpayers' share, a bit more of the share for transport? Tricky, only 1.5 goes to transport as it is. |
| We could more easily identify trends like those in this chart, and see shifting priorities over the years. | We could more easily identify trends like those in this chart, and see shifting priorities over the years. |
| Now the sums become easier too. First, you say what the state is going to take - whether it's 40 or maybe 38, or perhaps 42 (these numbers tend not to vary as much as the billions-based commentary might suggest). Then you say how you are going to share it out, whether health is to remain at about eight-ish as now, or grow, or shrink. | Now the sums become easier too. First, you say what the state is going to take - whether it's 40 or maybe 38, or perhaps 42 (these numbers tend not to vary as much as the billions-based commentary might suggest). Then you say how you are going to share it out, whether health is to remain at about eight-ish as now, or grow, or shrink. |
| You also have to say how you're going to find something like the six that is roughly equivalent to what the government has been spending each year more than its underlying income - whether you plan to take this from the taxpayer or cut it. | You also have to say how you're going to find something like the six that is roughly equivalent to what the government has been spending each year more than its underlying income - whether you plan to take this from the taxpayer or cut it. |
| And at least now we can also see the scale of the borrowing problem. Six is about three times the defence budget or about three-quarters of the entire health budget. This has little to do with the one-off cost of the recession - it is simply the share of underlying borrowing needed every year if the government raises, say, 36 from tax and spends 42. | And at least now we can also see the scale of the borrowing problem. Six is about three times the defence budget or about three-quarters of the entire health budget. This has little to do with the one-off cost of the recession - it is simply the share of underlying borrowing needed every year if the government raises, say, 36 from tax and spends 42. |
| Gordon Brown wants to raise £16bn by selling assets. That's about a one | |
| When the Institute for Fiscal Studies crunches the political numbers and pronounces on their coherence, the simple method it uses is first to do the calculations with the small numbers and then work out what they might mean in detail. | When the Institute for Fiscal Studies crunches the political numbers and pronounces on their coherence, the simple method it uses is first to do the calculations with the small numbers and then work out what they might mean in detail. |
| This doesn't tell us everything, but we'd know much more about what the government or opposition plans to do, roughly how they intend to make the books balance, or not, roughly what their priorities are (instead of telling us that everything is a priority) and how much of our income they will take. | This doesn't tell us everything, but we'd know much more about what the government or opposition plans to do, roughly how they intend to make the books balance, or not, roughly what their priorities are (instead of telling us that everything is a priority) and how much of our income they will take. |
| Shadow Chancellor George Osborne could tell us how his billions of savings announced at the Conservative conference compare with the six necessary to achieve balance (they equal about 0.5 by the year 2014). Prime Minister Gordon Brown might tell us how the government reached a position of spending six more than it really raised, even after assuming the recession and all the unemployment it creates has gone. | Shadow Chancellor George Osborne could tell us how his billions of savings announced at the Conservative conference compare with the six necessary to achieve balance (they equal about 0.5 by the year 2014). Prime Minister Gordon Brown might tell us how the government reached a position of spending six more than it really raised, even after assuming the recession and all the unemployment it creates has gone. |
| Our message to politicians could be simple. If you are really interested in informing us, rather than trying to dazzle us, don't only tell us billions, also tell us the small numbers. Tell us the shares. Share with us your priorities. What do you think the shares should be in future? | Our message to politicians could be simple. If you are really interested in informing us, rather than trying to dazzle us, don't only tell us billions, also tell us the small numbers. Tell us the shares. Share with us your priorities. What do you think the shares should be in future? |
| Do that, and we could then work out what it means to each of us in pounds, and what it means to the long-term prospects for services like health, education and defence. | Do that, and we could then work out what it means to each of us in pounds, and what it means to the long-term prospects for services like health, education and defence. |
| Though of course they will all say they will achieve everything by some miracle of efficiency. They always do. But have you noticed how these miracles also come in big numbers? | Though of course they will all say they will achieve everything by some miracle of efficiency. They always do. But have you noticed how these miracles also come in big numbers? |
| Send us your comments using the form below. | Send us your comments using the form below. |
| The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions | The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions |