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Recovery hopes on recession stats Figures show 'longest' recession
(about 1 hour later)
Figures due to be published are likely to suggest the recession has ended. Despite expectations that the recession is over, official figures just released show that the UK is still in economic downturn.
The figures confirm that it is the longest recession since records began and the decline is continuing.
In Wales, thousands of jobs have been lost and more remain under threat, as manufacturing shrank by 10% according to assembly government figures.In Wales, thousands of jobs have been lost and more remain under threat, as manufacturing shrank by 10% according to assembly government figures.
The housing market has also taken a hit as last year's credit crunch turned to full-blown recession. The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% between July and September.
Now the long road to economic recovery is expected to begin with figures set to show five quarters of contraction has come to an end. It is the first time that GDP has contracted for six consecutive quarters since the ONS began compiling quarterly figures in 1955.
Economists are predicting the country's gross domestic product rose slightly by 0.2% between July and September. GDP measures the total amount of goods and services produced by a country.
Despite this, city analysts suggest there is every likelihood that unemployment will continue rising for several more months. I think there is a degree of optimism Richard Rees, independent financial advisor
The housing market been badly hit as last year's credit crunch turned to full-blown recession.
City analysts suggest there is every likelihood that unemployment will continue rising for several more months.
Unemployment in Wales is at its highest since 1993. Wales' current employment rate is 69.7% well below the 80% target.Unemployment in Wales is at its highest since 1993. Wales' current employment rate is 69.7% well below the 80% target.
I think there is a degree of optimism Richard Rees
Some 900 jobs are under threat at the Bosch plant in the Vale of Glamorgan. The company has announced it is beginning a 90-day consultation over the future of the factory, which may even have to close completely.Some 900 jobs are under threat at the Bosch plant in the Vale of Glamorgan. The company has announced it is beginning a 90-day consultation over the future of the factory, which may even have to close completely.
Last month, nearly 400 well-paid jobs were lost when metal production has ended at Anglesey Aluminium in Holyhead, a major employer in the region.Last month, nearly 400 well-paid jobs were lost when metal production has ended at Anglesey Aluminium in Holyhead, a major employer in the region.
Speaking about the expected announcement that the recession is over, Richard Rees, an independent financial advisor said: "I think there is a degree of optimism. Interest rates have fallen but on the other hand it's been difficult to get credit. As the latest GDP figures - which measure economic activity - were expected, a business breakfast in Chepstow was being held to gauge how the recession has affected industry in Wales.
Mike Gorshkov, managing director Cardiff-based Linea Resourcing, recruitment advisors in the engineering sector, said: "I have to say it's been probably the worse 12 months I have experienced in the sector. Vacancy levels are down 50% on this time last year."
'Optimism'
"But having said that, there are now positive signs clients are now looking at launching new projects and products which are resulting in recruiting for more technical-based skills - design engineers, product engineers and production engineers."
Richard Rees, an independent financial advisor said: "I think there is a degree of optimism. Interest rates have fallen but on the other hand it's been difficult to get credit.
"I think people are going to be feeling better about spending but that will be tempered by the worry over job losses."I think people are going to be feeling better about spending but that will be tempered by the worry over job losses.
"I don't think things have been as bad as was forecast.""I don't think things have been as bad as was forecast."
Bob Shepherd, of Bob Shepherd Associates, which provide business support services, said he expected it to take six-to-nine months to come out of recession in practical terms but he said it was now important to "talk up" the economy.
'Green shoots''Green shoots'
At a business breakfast in Chepstow, Bob Shepherd, of Bob Shepherd Associates, which provide business support services, said he expected it to take six to nine months to come out of recession in practical terms but it was now important to "talk up" the economy.
He said: "I am seeing the much vaunted 'green shoots'.He said: "I am seeing the much vaunted 'green shoots'.
"People are developing things. I was talking to somebody this week about buying a factory. You don't do that if you if you think the whole thing is going to fall apart.""People are developing things. I was talking to somebody this week about buying a factory. You don't do that if you if you think the whole thing is going to fall apart."
But Lynn Quick, who took over a branch of the Ferrari bakery, after the south Wales chain went into liquidation in November 2008, believes the financial problems will linger for longer.But Lynn Quick, who took over a branch of the Ferrari bakery, after the south Wales chain went into liquidation in November 2008, believes the financial problems will linger for longer.
"I think we need to be careful. It doesn't seem to me that we are coming out of the recession.""I think we need to be careful. It doesn't seem to me that we are coming out of the recession."