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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Child obesity 'is levelling off' | Child obesity 'is levelling off' |
| (30 minutes later) | |
| Forecasts of a huge rise in obesity among children in England have been significantly downgraded following a new analysis of data. | Forecasts of a huge rise in obesity among children in England have been significantly downgraded following a new analysis of data. |
| The National Heart Forum found evidence that the rate of increase in childhood obesity may be starting to slow. | The National Heart Forum found evidence that the rate of increase in childhood obesity may be starting to slow. |
| Its figures suggest that by 2020 the proportion of boys aged 2-11 who will be overweight or obese will be 30% - not 42% as previously predicted. | Its figures suggest that by 2020 the proportion of boys aged 2-11 who will be overweight or obese will be 30% - not 42% as previously predicted. |
| For girls of the same age the revised prediction is now 27% - down from 48%. | For girls of the same age the revised prediction is now 27% - down from 48%. |
| OBESITY IN 2020 For the age group two to 11 Boys:Overweight:Old prediction: 22%New prediction: 17%Obese: Old prediction: 20%New prediction: 13%Girls:Overweight: Old prediction: 34%New prediction: 17%Obese: Old prediction: 14%New prediction: 10% For the age group 12 to 19 Boys:Overweight:Old prediction: 25%New prediction: 18%Obese: Old prediction: 19%New prediction: 6%Girls:Overweight: Old prediction: 35%New prediction: 29%Obese: Old prediction: 30%New prediction: 9% | OBESITY IN 2020 For the age group two to 11 Boys:Overweight:Old prediction: 22%New prediction: 17%Obese: Old prediction: 20%New prediction: 13%Girls:Overweight: Old prediction: 34%New prediction: 17%Obese: Old prediction: 14%New prediction: 10% For the age group 12 to 19 Boys:Overweight:Old prediction: 25%New prediction: 18%Obese: Old prediction: 19%New prediction: 6%Girls:Overweight: Old prediction: 35%New prediction: 29%Obese: Old prediction: 30%New prediction: 9% |
| The revised predictions also indicate a big drop in the number of overweight and obese young people aged 12-19. | The revised predictions also indicate a big drop in the number of overweight and obese young people aged 12-19. |
| They represent the first sign of encouraging news for decades, as obesity rates have been rising in England - as in most developed nations - since the 1970s. | They represent the first sign of encouraging news for decades, as obesity rates have been rising in England - as in most developed nations - since the 1970s. |
| A similar trend has been recorded in several other countries, including the US, France and Denmark. | A similar trend has been recorded in several other countries, including the US, France and Denmark. |
| There are currently 1.5 million children in England who are overweight or obese - leaving them at increased risk of health problems such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and heart disease. | There are currently 1.5 million children in England who are overweight or obese - leaving them at increased risk of health problems such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and heart disease. |
| The Department of Health has set a target of reducing the number of overweight and obese children to 2000 levels by 2020. | The Department of Health has set a target of reducing the number of overweight and obese children to 2000 levels by 2020. |
| The National Heart Forum based its latest predictions on data collected for the Health Survey for England between 2000 and 2007. | The National Heart Forum based its latest predictions on data collected for the Health Survey for England between 2000 and 2007. |
| Previous estimates were based on data collected for the same survey between 1993 and 2004. | Previous estimates were based on data collected for the same survey between 1993 and 2004. |
| The researchers said it was not clear why obesity levels might have levelled off, but said government interventions and media coverage may have played a role. | The researchers said it was not clear why obesity levels might have levelled off, but said government interventions and media coverage may have played a role. |
| Work to do | Work to do |
| Lead researcher Professor Klim McPherson, said: "These trends present a more positive picture that obesity may be levelling off in children. | Lead researcher Professor Klim McPherson, said: "These trends present a more positive picture that obesity may be levelling off in children. |
| We will have to wait another two or three years to see if this is a trend or just a blip Tam FryNational Obesity Forum | |
| "However, prevalence and current trends of excess weight are still unacceptably high and these figures should not be taken as an argument for complacency. | "However, prevalence and current trends of excess weight are still unacceptably high and these figures should not be taken as an argument for complacency. |
| "The government needs to keep up the work they are doing to tackle obesity." | "The government needs to keep up the work they are doing to tackle obesity." |
| Professor McPherson said obesity rates had to be monitored closely to ensure the predictions were translated into hard fact. | Professor McPherson said obesity rates had to be monitored closely to ensure the predictions were translated into hard fact. |
| Dr Ian Campbell, medical director of the charity Weight Concern, stressed that while the rate of increase may have dropped, rates of obesity among children were still rising. | Dr Ian Campbell, medical director of the charity Weight Concern, stressed that while the rate of increase may have dropped, rates of obesity among children were still rising. |
| FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME More from Today programme | |
| He said the government's Change 4 Life campaign - which aims to improve children's diets and boost their level of physical activity - had been well received, and had hopefully made a lasting impact. | He said the government's Change 4 Life campaign - which aims to improve children's diets and boost their level of physical activity - had been well received, and had hopefully made a lasting impact. |
| But he added: "There is hope for the future but this is no time for complacency." | But he added: "There is hope for the future but this is no time for complacency." |
| Tam Fry, from the National Obesity Forum, said: "We will have to wait another two or three years to see if this is a trend or just a blip. | Tam Fry, from the National Obesity Forum, said: "We will have to wait another two or three years to see if this is a trend or just a blip. |
| "I am worried about the credit crunch which is already encouraging increased reliance on processed food." | "I am worried about the credit crunch which is already encouraging increased reliance on processed food." |
| The Minister for Public Health, Gillian Merron, said government initiatives had had a positive impact, along with local work by the NHS and schools. | The Minister for Public Health, Gillian Merron, said government initiatives had had a positive impact, along with local work by the NHS and schools. |
| But she added: "Obesity levels are still too high and we need to keep the momentum going. | But she added: "Obesity levels are still too high and we need to keep the momentum going. |
| "We'll only turn the tide on obesity for good if everyone - government, families and industry - play their part." | "We'll only turn the tide on obesity for good if everyone - government, families and industry - play their part." |
| And Susan Jebb, head of nutrition at the Medical Research Council, said: "It feels like we are in a different place from just two years ago - and that's justified. | And Susan Jebb, head of nutrition at the Medical Research Council, said: "It feels like we are in a different place from just two years ago - and that's justified. |
| "That's the result of a shift in public awareness and attitude, coupled with some concrete local initiatives to support healthier eating and more physical activity for children. | "That's the result of a shift in public awareness and attitude, coupled with some concrete local initiatives to support healthier eating and more physical activity for children. |
| "This is hopeful but there's no room for complacency." | "This is hopeful but there's no room for complacency." |