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US election betting skyrocketing  US election betting surges following historic court ruling
(about 2 hours later)
Prediction markets are surging, enabling wagers of up to $100 million on either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump Prediction markets can now enable wagers of up to $100 million on either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump
Election betting using so-called ‘prediction markets’ is skyrocketing in the US after a ban on the practice was recently lifted, according to media reports. Platforms are currently forecasting a narrow win for Republican candidate Donald Trump against Democratic rival Kamala Harris. Election betting in the US has seen a sharp rise after a court ruling lifted restrictions on the practice, allowing platforms to accept substantial stakes on the presidential race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trading platform Kalshi, which last week won its legal fight against a US regulator in a Washington court, is offering investors the opportunity to stake up to $100 million on the result of the November vote.    This surge follows a legal victory by trading platform Kalshi, which successfully challenged a US regulator’s opposition in court last week.
The court’s decision came after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) failed to demonstrate harm to elections, despite arguing that such bets are similar to gaming and could undermine democratic integrity. The CFTC’s appeal against the ruling is ongoing.   The company, which is now cleared to operate, allows investors to bet up to $100 million on the outcome of the November election. The platform is currently forecasting a tight race, with trends indicating a slight lead for Trump over Harris.
In the first days since the ban was lifted, more than $12 million has been taken in, according to Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour. He added that the platform is working to attract more traders and several institutional investors.     The legal battle came to a head when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) attempted to block Kalshi, arguing that election betting could harm democratic integrity by resembling gambling. However, a Washington court ruled in favor of the platform, citing insufficient evidence of potential harm. The CFTC’s appeal of the decision is ongoing.
The bets are structured as binary options, priced up to $1 per contract. As of Monday, contracts favoring the former US president traded at 54 cents, while those for current Vice President Harris were at 47 cents. The prices also reflected a widening gap between Trump and Harris that has fluctuated between 51 and 49 cents for either candidate since the market opened a week ago. Since the ruling, Kalshi has reported over $12 million in bets, with founder Tarek Mansour noting efforts to attract more traders, including institutional investors. “We’ve seen strong early interest, but we expect volumes to climb as election day approaches,” Mansour said.
Although betting prices may indicate belief among traders that Trump will win the election, experts are cautious, saying that only the participation of institutional players could bring a clearer assessment.     Stakes are placed through binary options, which are priced up to $1 per contract. As of Monday, contracts favoring Trump traded at 54 cents, while those for Harris were priced at 47 cents. This narrow gap has fluctuated since the market opened, but analysts caution against over-interpreting these figures.
“You may want more institutional money because while these investors might have their own particular political views, they’ll have studied the outcome and their wagers represent especially informed opinion,” Grant Ferguson, a political scientist and a follower of prediction markets at Texas Christian University told the Financial Times on Tuesday.    “While these numbers suggest traders are leaning towards a Trump victory, the true picture will become clearer with more institutional money in play,” Grant Ferguson, a political scientist at Texas Christian University, said.
Offshore prediction platforms such as Polymarket have also seen a surge in bets with over $1.9 billion staked on the presidential race. Experts expect volumes to soar tenfold as election day approaches. Offshore platforms, such as Polymarket, have also seen a sharp increase in election-related betting, with more than $1.9 billion currently staked. Experts predict this figure could rise tenfold as Election Day nears.
Despite the enthusiasm, concerns remain over the impact of election betting on voter perceptions and the democratic process, issues that are expected to persist as legal appeals unfold.