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| A risky business | A risky business |
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| Scientific advice may suggest how dangerous things are - like smoking cannabis and horse riding - but risk is not all about numbers, says Michael Blastland in his regular column. | Scientific advice may suggest how dangerous things are - like smoking cannabis and horse riding - but risk is not all about numbers, says Michael Blastland in his regular column. |
| Sir David King, a former chief scientific adviser (not to be confused with Professor David Nutt of cannabis and horse riding fame - we'll come to him in a minute), said the government should press ahead, urgently, with a new generation of nuclear reactors because of the threat of climate change. | Sir David King, a former chief scientific adviser (not to be confused with Professor David Nutt of cannabis and horse riding fame - we'll come to him in a minute), said the government should press ahead, urgently, with a new generation of nuclear reactors because of the threat of climate change. |
| Professor Nutt was sacked from his job as drugs adviser | Professor Nutt was sacked from his job as drugs adviser |
| Two conclusions in just one policy, but sufficient to skewer many people. Some will agree with his assessment of the threat to the climate, while recoiling at his remedy. Others will be comfortable with nuclear power but not share the rationale. Sir David also famously argued that genetically modified crops were safer than conventional ones. | Two conclusions in just one policy, but sufficient to skewer many people. Some will agree with his assessment of the threat to the climate, while recoiling at his remedy. Others will be comfortable with nuclear power but not share the rationale. Sir David also famously argued that genetically modified crops were safer than conventional ones. |
| If you find yourself resisting any of the policy implications here, you are guilty of rejecting scientific advice. For though opinions vary, Sir David was, after all, the chief scientific adviser. | If you find yourself resisting any of the policy implications here, you are guilty of rejecting scientific advice. For though opinions vary, Sir David was, after all, the chief scientific adviser. |
| The point is a simple one, that people's attitude to the validity of scientific advice often shifts according to how congenial they find it. It's a point worth bearing in mind in the case this week of Professor David Nutt versus the Home Office on the classification of cannabis and other drugs. | The point is a simple one, that people's attitude to the validity of scientific advice often shifts according to how congenial they find it. It's a point worth bearing in mind in the case this week of Professor David Nutt versus the Home Office on the classification of cannabis and other drugs. |
| For though there is a statistical basis to David Nutt's claim that cannabis is no more dangerous than horse riding (though even these numbers can be interpreted differently and are contested), and he seems correct that the health risk of drinking and smoking is greater, risk is not now and never has been a question only, or even primarily, of numbers. | For though there is a statistical basis to David Nutt's claim that cannabis is no more dangerous than horse riding (though even these numbers can be interpreted differently and are contested), and he seems correct that the health risk of drinking and smoking is greater, risk is not now and never has been a question only, or even primarily, of numbers. |
| The numbers begin in sources such as a catalogue of deaths, this one for England and Wales. | The numbers begin in sources such as a catalogue of deaths, this one for England and Wales. |
| Deaths by drug poisonings can also be found separately and more easily at the Office for National Statistics . | Deaths by drug poisonings can also be found separately and more easily at the Office for National Statistics . |
| The tables tell us, among myriad morbid details, that through a variety of causes 23 people drowned in the bath in 2008, 108 died from "inhalation of gastric contents" and five starved to death. | The tables tell us, among myriad morbid details, that through a variety of causes 23 people drowned in the bath in 2008, 108 died from "inhalation of gastric contents" and five starved to death. |
| Of course, death is not the only measure of the harm drugs can do. Professor Nutt's team considered eight others - including the likelihood of psychotic illness - to arrive at their suggested classification. | Of course, death is not the only measure of the harm drugs can do. Professor Nutt's team considered eight others - including the likelihood of psychotic illness - to arrive at their suggested classification. |
| To see why even this exhaustive effort will struggle to be definitive, here is a true story. | To see why even this exhaustive effort will struggle to be definitive, here is a true story. |
| Spectacular but highly unlikely events worry us more than routine and more likely hazards that are just around the corner | Spectacular but highly unlikely events worry us more than routine and more likely hazards that are just around the corner |
| Sixty years ago, a young woman named Mary Douglas studying tribal custom in Africa, came across the following belief: if a woman had been unfaithful, she risked miscarriage in pregnancy. This was viewed not as bad luck or magic, but as a law of nature, as today we might regard gravity. | Sixty years ago, a young woman named Mary Douglas studying tribal custom in Africa, came across the following belief: if a woman had been unfaithful, she risked miscarriage in pregnancy. This was viewed not as bad luck or magic, but as a law of nature, as today we might regard gravity. |
| At the time she thought the tribe primitive, exercising a crude means of asserting power and ignorant of science. Later, Douglas, a celebrated anthropologist, came to the view that their behaviour was not primitive at all but normal in all societies. That is, what we call "risky" is often an expression of disapproval - though we might not be aware that this is what it is - as much as a measure of real danger. | At the time she thought the tribe primitive, exercising a crude means of asserting power and ignorant of science. Later, Douglas, a celebrated anthropologist, came to the view that their behaviour was not primitive at all but normal in all societies. That is, what we call "risky" is often an expression of disapproval - though we might not be aware that this is what it is - as much as a measure of real danger. |
| Her work suggests that even if Professor Nutt is right about the numbers - that there are many nasty things society smiles on and this is inconsistent, hypocritical you might say - this is only the beginning of the baggage carried by the concept of risk. | Her work suggests that even if Professor Nutt is right about the numbers - that there are many nasty things society smiles on and this is inconsistent, hypocritical you might say - this is only the beginning of the baggage carried by the concept of risk. |
| Anti-science | Anti-science |
| Risk is also about power and taboo, about cultural habits and our sense of control, about class, prejudice and values. Among these cultural complications is the fact that many people find "unnatural" risks somehow worse than natural ones, even though swine flu and arsenic are natural enough. Risks also depend on the political implications we attach to them, else why is a suitcase left at an airport frightening? | Risk is also about power and taboo, about cultural habits and our sense of control, about class, prejudice and values. Among these cultural complications is the fact that many people find "unnatural" risks somehow worse than natural ones, even though swine flu and arsenic are natural enough. Risks also depend on the political implications we attach to them, else why is a suitcase left at an airport frightening? |
| Risks we hope to control are thought less nasty than those imposed on us, so we might be paranoid about pesticides in our food but sometimes unconcerned as we spray the garden where the children play. Spectacular but highly unlikely events worry us more than routine and more likely hazards that are just around the corner. | Risks we hope to control are thought less nasty than those imposed on us, so we might be paranoid about pesticides in our food but sometimes unconcerned as we spray the garden where the children play. Spectacular but highly unlikely events worry us more than routine and more likely hazards that are just around the corner. |
| For some, of course, risk is an allure. Tell them it might be dangerous and they can't wait to try. That is one reason they climb big mountains, drive cars too fast, smoke underage. There is evidence that the more we try to protect some people from the risks they take, the more danger they seek. | For some, of course, risk is an allure. Tell them it might be dangerous and they can't wait to try. That is one reason they climb big mountains, drive cars too fast, smoke underage. There is evidence that the more we try to protect some people from the risks they take, the more danger they seek. |
| How dangerous is horse riding? | How dangerous is horse riding? |
| This is known as risk homeostasis and acts like a personal thermostat, so that if someone gives you an airbag, you feel more at liberty to put your foot down. (Funnily enough, one psychological trait among the young is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood of bad things happening. They think the chance of HIV-Aids is far greater than it really is. But does that stop unprotected sex?) | |
| There can also be confusion between the probability of a harm occurring and the severity of that harm. So if a chief scientist says nuclear power isn't risky, he might mean it's highly unlikely to go wrong. Someone else might think, "but if it does..." | There can also be confusion between the probability of a harm occurring and the severity of that harm. So if a chief scientist says nuclear power isn't risky, he might mean it's highly unlikely to go wrong. Someone else might think, "but if it does..." |
| And no measure of risk is complete without a calculation of the potential benefits. | And no measure of risk is complete without a calculation of the potential benefits. |
| For all these reasons, when in answer to either of the scientific Davids the government demurs, does it have a point that this is politics, not science? It has produced a classification list which is ostensibly about degrees of harm, but might also be a list of "things politicians think voters don't like". Or should we dismiss cultural considerations as anti-science? | For all these reasons, when in answer to either of the scientific Davids the government demurs, does it have a point that this is politics, not science? It has produced a classification list which is ostensibly about degrees of harm, but might also be a list of "things politicians think voters don't like". Or should we dismiss cultural considerations as anti-science? |
| When the classification system is designed not only as a ranking of harm, but as the basis of a policy that tries to satisfy public preferences, maybe it tries to do too much, stretched between two conflicting objectives, one about numbers (approximately), the other about culture (in all its contradictory vagueness). Maybe that is why the sides fail to see eye to eye. As with all measurements, it pays to be clear what we are measuring. | When the classification system is designed not only as a ranking of harm, but as the basis of a policy that tries to satisfy public preferences, maybe it tries to do too much, stretched between two conflicting objectives, one about numbers (approximately), the other about culture (in all its contradictory vagueness). Maybe that is why the sides fail to see eye to eye. As with all measurements, it pays to be clear what we are measuring. |
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