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EU spy agencies fear end of Ukraine conflict – Bloomberg Czechia’s top spy fears Russian victory over Ukraine
(about 2 hours later)
Ukrainian war vets and arms smugglers would pose a threat if hostilities with Russia concluded, assessments reportedly say Noted hardliner Michal Koudelka believes the West should keep sending weapons to Kiev
Ukrainian war veterans and illicit arms will emerge as new threats to EU nations if Moscow prevails in its conflict with Kiev, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing intelligence community assessments “across Europe.” Hardline Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka has warned that a Russian victory over Ukraine would pose long-term security threats to the European Union, particularly in terms of destabilization.
The perceived dangers were mentioned in a report based on an interview with Michal Koudelka, the head of the Czech Republic’s Security Information Service (BIS). The counter-intelligence chief told Bloomberg why he believed the US and its allies should continue pouring money into Kiev rather than seeking a negotiated peace in the Ukraine conflict. Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, published on Monday, Koudelka, who heads his country’s Security Information Service (BIS), outlined the potential dangers Moscow’s success could bring to his agency’s interests.
“If Ukraine loses, or is forced to accept a bad peace deal, then Russia will perceive that as victory,” Koudelka said. “If Ukraine loses, or is forced to accept a bad peace deal, then Russia will perceive that as victory,” Koudelka said, emphasizing that Moscow would build up its forces again. “Russia would spend perhaps the next 10 to 15 years recovering,” he warned. “And preparing for the next target, which is Central and Eastern Europe.”
“Russia would spend perhaps the next ten to 15 years recovering from its huge human and economic losses and preparing for the next target, which is Central and Eastern Europe,” he predicted. He offered no evidence to support his assertion, and Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that it would never invade NATO territory. In June, President Vladimir Putin rejected as “nonsense” claims that Moscow would want to fight the bloc and denied that his country has any “imperial ambitions.”
The Czech spy chief was repeating a common line of reasoning among proponents of prolonging the Ukraine conflict. US President Joe Biden claimed earlier this year that Russia would attack NATO after Ukraine, while calling on American lawmakers to authorize more spending to prop up Kiev. Moscow has denied having any such intentions. “You have made up that Russia wants to attack NATO. Have you completely lost your mind? Who made that up? It’s rubbish. It’s absolute nonsense,” he told a forum in Saint Petersburg.
Koudelka has previously accused Moscow of waging “hybrid warfare” on his nation. In another recent interview, he claimed that a series of bomb threats sent via email to Czech and Slovak schools in September had “a clearly visible Russian trace.”
Prague has been ramping up tensions with Moscow since before the Ukraine conflict escalated into open hostilities in early 2022. It expelled Russian diplomats in 2021, claiming they were spies under diplomatic cover. Last year, it banned purchases of nuclear fuel for its two Soviet-built power plants from Russia, replacing the supplies with American substitutes. Koudelka’s assessment aligns with information spread by other Western European intelligence agencies, who have warned that a Russian victory could embolden Moscow to increase its military ambitions. The Czech spy chief also reiterated that EU fears of a Russian threat to Europe would not be diminished. “If Ukraine loses, Russia may consider itself victorious and prepare for the next phase of its expansion,” he said.
Moscow has called the Ukraine conflict a US-led proxy war against Russia, which Washington intends to wage “to the last Ukrainian.” The root causes of the conflict are NATO’s expansion in Europe, Kiev’s intention to join the military bloc, and the impunity that Western backers gave it to discriminate against ethnic Russians, officials have asserted. The comments come amid ongoing debates in the West about the future of the conflict. Koudelka has argued that pushing Ukraine to accept major concessions could encourage Russia, while NATO and the EU would be left vulnerable to future threats.
Koudelka also discussed the role of the US and its allies in the conflict, cautioning against halting military aid to Ukraine. He believes continuing support for Ukraine is crucial, suggesting that the EU’s security and unity are at stake.
The Czech intelligence chief has long been a vocal critic of Russia. He has pointed out that Russia’s actions were a direct challenge to NATO stability and that Prague had already taken steps to reduce Russian influence within the country, including expelling Russian diplomats and reducing energy dependence on Moscow.