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| Net migration to push UK population to 72.5m, ONS projects | |
| (14 days later) | |
| Figures suggest UK population could grow by almost five million over the next decade | Figures suggest UK population could grow by almost five million over the next decade |
| Net migration could fuel a rise in the UK population to 72.5 million by 2032, figures suggest. | Net migration could fuel a rise in the UK population to 72.5 million by 2032, figures suggest. |
| The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has projected a population growth of 7.3% between 2022 and 2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous 10 years. | The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has projected a population growth of 7.3% between 2022 and 2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous 10 years. |
| The number is almost entirely based on the net migration - the difference between those entering and leaving the country - of an estimated 4.9 million people over the 10-year period. | The number is almost entirely based on the net migration - the difference between those entering and leaving the country - of an estimated 4.9 million people over the 10-year period. |
| Downing Street said it wanted to bring down the "staggeringly high" levels of migration, but ruled out an "arbitrary" cap. | Downing Street said it wanted to bring down the "staggeringly high" levels of migration, but ruled out an "arbitrary" cap. |
| The number of births and deaths is expected to be roughly equal, while it is projected there will be an additional 1.7 million pensioners by 2032. | The number of births and deaths is expected to be roughly equal, while it is projected there will be an additional 1.7 million pensioners by 2032. |
| Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the ONS projections suggest: | Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the ONS projections suggest: |
| 6.79 million people will be born | 6.79 million people will be born |
| 6.81 million people will die | 6.81 million people will die |
| 9.91 million people will immigrate long-term to the UK | 9.91 million people will immigrate long-term to the UK |
| 4.98 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK | 4.98 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK |
| The ONS's figures assume that, from 2028, net migration will average 340,000 extra people to the UK per year - up from previous projections of 315,000 - which is lower than current levels. | The ONS's figures assume that, from 2028, net migration will average 340,000 extra people to the UK per year - up from previous projections of 315,000 - which is lower than current levels. |
| Net migration into the UK hit a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and then fell to 728,000 in the year to June 2024. | Net migration into the UK hit a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and then fell to 728,000 in the year to June 2024. |
| The ONS projects that it will continue to decline until 2028, but after that will remain at 340,000 per year as a long term average. | The ONS projects that it will continue to decline until 2028, but after that will remain at 340,000 per year as a long term average. |
| The ONS also stressed the figures were projections - not predictions or forecasts - and warned that real numbers could be higher or lower.. | The ONS also stressed the figures were projections - not predictions or forecasts - and warned that real numbers could be higher or lower.. |
| The Home Office said the figures were based on historic net migration numbers over a decade and that "staggeringly high" levels of migration had been seen in recent years. | The Home Office said the figures were based on historic net migration numbers over a decade and that "staggeringly high" levels of migration had been seen in recent years. |
| It had committed to reducing those numbers "substantially", it said, and would be setting out a "comprehensive plan" to "restore order to our broken immigration system". | It had committed to reducing those numbers "substantially", it said, and would be setting out a "comprehensive plan" to "restore order to our broken immigration system". |
| The prime minister's official spokesman also promised a plan to reduce migration, adding that Sir Keir Starmer had previously pointed out that a "supposed cap" in place before "didn't have any meaningful impact on reducing immigration". | The prime minister's official spokesman also promised a plan to reduce migration, adding that Sir Keir Starmer had previously pointed out that a "supposed cap" in place before "didn't have any meaningful impact on reducing immigration". |
| "So he doesn't think that setting an arbitrary cap, as previous governments have done, is the best way forward in terms of significantly reducing migration." | "So he doesn't think that setting an arbitrary cap, as previous governments have done, is the best way forward in terms of significantly reducing migration." |
| Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the projection was "shocking and unacceptable", and must be "stopped from materialising." | Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the projection was "shocking and unacceptable", and must be "stopped from materialising." |
| "We need a binding legal cap on visas issued each year which is very, very substantially lower than this in order to get the numbers down and under control." | "We need a binding legal cap on visas issued each year which is very, very substantially lower than this in order to get the numbers down and under control." |
| England is expected to see the biggest population increase among the UK nations, with a projected rise of 7.8% compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland. | England is expected to see the biggest population increase among the UK nations, with a projected rise of 7.8% compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland. |
| The natural change in population - number of births and deaths - is projected to be "around zero". | The natural change in population - number of births and deaths - is projected to be "around zero". |
| This is because deaths are projected to rise due to a large number of people born in the post-World War Two period reaching older ages, the ONS says. | This is because deaths are projected to rise due to a large number of people born in the post-World War Two period reaching older ages, the ONS says. |
| The projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, and suggest there could be fewer children due to lower fertility rates. | The projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, and suggest there could be fewer children due to lower fertility rates. |
| By the middle of 2029, the number of deaths is projected to overtake births, meaning net migration will be the only source of population growth. | By the middle of 2029, the number of deaths is projected to overtake births, meaning net migration will be the only source of population growth. |
| This suggests that if there were no immigration nor a huge increase in babies being born, the population would be shrinking. | This suggests that if there were no immigration nor a huge increase in babies being born, the population would be shrinking. |
| Economic growth would almost inevitably slow and there would be real questions about who would care for increasing numbers of elderly people. | Economic growth would almost inevitably slow and there would be real questions about who would care for increasing numbers of elderly people. |
| The statistics are used in planning including fiscal projections and across public services such as education, health, and pensions. | The statistics are used in planning including fiscal projections and across public services such as education, health, and pensions. |
| If incorporated by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the new projections should improve "economic and fiscal outlook, and reduce borrowing by around £5 billion", according to the Resolution Foundation. | If incorporated by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the new projections should improve "economic and fiscal outlook, and reduce borrowing by around £5 billion", according to the Resolution Foundation. |