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Tropical Cyclone Alfred forecast to hit Queensland and NSW in coming days Tropical Cyclone Alfred forecast to hit Queensland and NSW in coming days
(about 2 hours later)
Residents warned to prepare food and water and secure properties as BoM predicts Alfred will make landfall anywhere between Bundaberg and northern New South WalesResidents warned to prepare food and water and secure properties as BoM predicts Alfred will make landfall anywhere between Bundaberg and northern New South Wales
Residents in two states have now been urged to prepare, with the Bureau of Meteorology warning Tropical Cyclone Alfred could make landfall anywhere between Bundaberg and northern New South Wales. Cyclone warnings have been issued for more than 4 million people in two states – extending as far south as Grafton in New South Wales – as authorities warn it is “increasingly likely” that Tropical Cyclone Alfred is preparing a destructive arc towards Australia’s east coast.
The Queensland premier, David Crisafulli, said residents of southeast Queensland should be preparing “canned food and bottled water” as forecasters expect Alfred to shift towards large population centres in the coming days. The Queensland premier, David Crisafulli, said weather modelling from overnight and Monday morning had reinforced the prospect that Alfred would soon veer towards southeast Queensland.
The cyclone is forecast to cross the coastline as a category 2 system on Thursday or early Friday. Crisafulli said there was now a “high” likelihood that the storm would reach landfall between K’gari and the New South Wales border, a large stretch of coastline that includes heavily populated areas with about 4 million people, and the city of Brisbane.
The cyclone is forecast to cross the coastline as a category 2 system on Thursday or early Friday. It is now a category 1 system.
Crisafulli said the storm brought three layers of threat to residents largely unaccustomed to a tropical cyclone hitting the coast so far below the tropic of capricorn.
The first was from large surf, tidal storm surge and coastal erosion. Some Queensland beaches recorded waves of up to 14m at the weekend and there is increasing concern for Golden Beach, at the southern tip of the Sunshine Coast, after surging tides cut through the northern tip of Bribie Island.
The island provides a natural barrier that otherwise protects Golden Beach. Without it, there is serious concern about the impact of storm surge.
Crisafulli said there was concern among authorities that the cyclone could cross the coast coinciding with a high tide, which would be particularly destructive along the coast.
A second concern was from damaging winds as the storm nears. The third is from heavy rainfall that would probably concentrate at the southern fringe of Tropical Cyclone Alfred as it crosses the coast.
Authorities have moved to a preparatory footing several days ahead of the predicted impacts, given the potential path of the cyclone includes the heavily populated areas around Brisbane. The Queensland capital is particularly flood-prone and has been severely inundated three times in the past 15 years.Authorities have moved to a preparatory footing several days ahead of the predicted impacts, given the potential path of the cyclone includes the heavily populated areas around Brisbane. The Queensland capital is particularly flood-prone and has been severely inundated three times in the past 15 years.
It is unusual – though not unprecedented – for a Tropical Cyclone to threaten landfall so far south of the tropics. “This is a serious impact,” Crisafulli said.
Speaking on ABC News Breakfast on Monday, Crisafulli urged residents in the south-east – unaccustomed to the sorts of cyclone preparations that are routine in the state’s north – to prepare their homes. “The modelling does show that it is likely to cross the coast and we want people to be as prepared as they can be.”
“[People need to] make sure they do things around their own home and make sure they’ve got canned food and bottled water and remove loose items,” Crisafulli said.
“If you do all those things, you do get through these events.”
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that heavy rainfall will be concentrated to the south of wherever Alfred makes landfall, and that the system could bring 300mm to 600mm over multiple days.The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that heavy rainfall will be concentrated to the south of wherever Alfred makes landfall, and that the system could bring 300mm to 600mm over multiple days.
“It’s the rainfall that is most of concern,” Crisafulli said. Alfred briefly intensified into a Category 2 storm on Monday, before weakening again.
“When a system like that does cross the coast, generally speaking you have huge intensities to the south of the system, and that can produce really intense rainfall in a very, very short window. Sue Oates, a senior meteorologist at the bureau, said forecasters expected a “recurvature” of Alfred in the next 24 hours, and that it would “make a westward track towards the Queensland coast on Tuesday morning.”
“You’re already dealing with areas that are reasonably soaked already, so there are complications that come with that.” “It can re-intensify and we are expecting a Category 2 system.”
The more immediate threat, as Alfred moves slowly to the south-east and lingers off the coast, is concern about intense winds and potential storm surge in island communities and along the coast. Oates said there was increasing “confidence” among forecasters of the system crossing the coast on Thursday or early Friday.
Waves up to 14 metres were recorded off Wide Bay on Sunday. While Brisbane and nearby communities begin to prepare, there is an immediate threat of intense winds and potential storm surge in island communities and along the coast.
Decisions have not yet been made about potential school closures or event cancellations. Crisafulli said the state would provide “information” but that many of these decisions would be left to businesses or sporting associations.
The Brisbane lord mayor, Adrian Schrinner, said many of the city’s residents had never experienced a cyclone before as he stressed the “very real threat” to south-eastern Queensland.The Brisbane lord mayor, Adrian Schrinner, said many of the city’s residents had never experienced a cyclone before as he stressed the “very real threat” to south-eastern Queensland.
It is rare – but not unheard of – for tropical cyclones to reach landfall south of the tropics. It is rare – but not unheard of – for tropical cyclones to reach landfall south of the tropics.
The closest a cyclone track has come to Brisbane was in 1990, when Tropical Cyclone Nancy tracked erratically towards the Queensland capital, before making a southward turn just off the coastline and never reaching landfall.The closest a cyclone track has come to Brisbane was in 1990, when Tropical Cyclone Nancy tracked erratically towards the Queensland capital, before making a southward turn just off the coastline and never reaching landfall.
Tropical Cyclone Wanda – the cause of Brisbane’s historic 1974 floods – crossed the coast near K’gari and Hervey Bay. A severe tropical cyclone crossed the coast near Tweed Heads in 1954.Tropical Cyclone Wanda – the cause of Brisbane’s historic 1974 floods – crossed the coast near K’gari and Hervey Bay. A severe tropical cyclone crossed the coast near Tweed Heads in 1954.
It is far more common for a tropical cyclone to cross the coast north of the tropic of capricorn and return overland to the south-east as a destructive low storm. This occurred with Cyclone Debbie in 2017.It is far more common for a tropical cyclone to cross the coast north of the tropic of capricorn and return overland to the south-east as a destructive low storm. This occurred with Cyclone Debbie in 2017.
In NSW, where the northern coastline could be affected, the State Emergency Service urged residents to prepare for damaging winds, large surf and heavy rainfall with major riverine and flash flooding expected from Wednesday. In NSW, where the northern coastline could be affected, the State Emergency Service urged residents to prepare for damaging winds, large surf and heavy rainfall with major riverine and flash flooding expected from Wednesday.
“We are asking the community to take steps now to ensure that if you are asked to evacuate you have a plan for yourselves, your families and your pets and know where you will go,” NSW SES assistant commissioner Dean Storey said. “We are asking the community to take steps now to ensure that if you are asked to evacuate you have a plan for yourselves, your families and your pets and know where you will go,” NSW SES assistant commissioner Dean Storey said.
The bureau is predicting that Alfred will move slowly to the south-east until Tuesday, before shifting west back towards the coast. The bureau is predicting that Alfred will move slowly to the south-east until Tuesday, before shifting west back towards the coast.