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| Tropical Cyclone Alfred intensifies as latest forecast predicts landfall just north of Brisbane | Tropical Cyclone Alfred intensifies as latest forecast predicts landfall just north of Brisbane |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| BoM data prediction says path of TC Alfred shows it tracking to hit Queensland coast overnight on Thursday | |
| Tropical Cyclone Alfred has intensified and is forecast to take a sharp turn towards the heavily populated south-east Queensland coast on Tuesday afternoon. | Tropical Cyclone Alfred has intensified and is forecast to take a sharp turn towards the heavily populated south-east Queensland coast on Tuesday afternoon. |
| It has been upgraded from a category one to a category two storm, with wind gusts up to 130km/h. Updated tracking maps from the Bureau of Meteorology now forecast Alfred potentially making landfall just north of Brisbane overnight on Thursday. | It has been upgraded from a category one to a category two storm, with wind gusts up to 130km/h. Updated tracking maps from the Bureau of Meteorology now forecast Alfred potentially making landfall just north of Brisbane overnight on Thursday. |
| The forecast track would represent a nightmare scenario for authorities in the Queensland capital, a city with 2.5 million people and susceptible to severe flooding. The bureau says most of the intense rainfall will occur to the south of where Alfred makes landfall. | The forecast track would represent a nightmare scenario for authorities in the Queensland capital, a city with 2.5 million people and susceptible to severe flooding. The bureau says most of the intense rainfall will occur to the south of where Alfred makes landfall. |
| But tracking maps may change again over the coming days as the forecast evolves. | But tracking maps may change again over the coming days as the forecast evolves. |
| More than 4 million people – from Grafton in New South Wales to K’gari in Queensland – have been placed on a formal “warning” footing by the bureau. | More than 4 million people – from Grafton in New South Wales to K’gari in Queensland – have been placed on a formal “warning” footing by the bureau. |
| Early on Tuesday morning, Alfred was 560km east of Brisbane and moving away, to the south-east, about 6km/h. | Early on Tuesday morning, Alfred was 560km east of Brisbane and moving away, to the south-east, about 6km/h. |
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| But forecasters say with increasing confidence they expect the system to undergo a “recurvature” by mid Tuesday afternoon – a sudden change of direction – as it bumps up against another weather system to the south. | But forecasters say with increasing confidence they expect the system to undergo a “recurvature” by mid Tuesday afternoon – a sudden change of direction – as it bumps up against another weather system to the south. |
| “Models are in agreement that the strengthening mid-level ridge to the south to steer Alfred westwards from later today,” the bureau’s technical bulletin from Tuesday morning said. | “Models are in agreement that the strengthening mid-level ridge to the south to steer Alfred westwards from later today,” the bureau’s technical bulletin from Tuesday morning said. |
| “Landfall location could range from the Sunshine Coast to the Gold Coast, and there is also uncertainty in terms of the timing of coastal crossing between late Thursday and Friday morning.” | “Landfall location could range from the Sunshine Coast to the Gold Coast, and there is also uncertainty in terms of the timing of coastal crossing between late Thursday and Friday morning.” |
| The update says the nature of the cyclone means it is difficult to predict its intensity when it reaches landfall. The bureau says the strongest winds could be up to 100km/h and would occur to the south of the system. | The update says the nature of the cyclone means it is difficult to predict its intensity when it reaches landfall. The bureau says the strongest winds could be up to 100km/h and would occur to the south of the system. |
| In the suburbs of south-east Queensland, residents have begun preparations. | In the suburbs of south-east Queensland, residents have begun preparations. |
| Brisbane has severely flooded three times in the past 15 years. Unlike parts of northern Queensland, locals do not typically prepare for the possibility of a cyclone. Many older “Queenslander” homes, an architectural feature of the area, are timber-built from the early 1900s. | Brisbane has severely flooded three times in the past 15 years. Unlike parts of northern Queensland, locals do not typically prepare for the possibility of a cyclone. Many older “Queenslander” homes, an architectural feature of the area, are timber-built from the early 1900s. |
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| Those risks have prompted authorities to issue clear early warnings. | Those risks have prompted authorities to issue clear early warnings. |
| “Early preparation can reduce damage and increase safety,” said Andrew Gissing, the chief executive of Natural Hazards Research Australia. | “Early preparation can reduce damage and increase safety,” said Andrew Gissing, the chief executive of Natural Hazards Research Australia. |
| “Research … shows that often people do not understand what they need to do to be fully prepared. For example, research after the 2022 floods in Queensland and New South Wales found that 50% of residents acknowledged that they could have been more prepared.” | “Research … shows that often people do not understand what they need to do to be fully prepared. For example, research after the 2022 floods in Queensland and New South Wales found that 50% of residents acknowledged that they could have been more prepared.” |
| Gissing said the primary hazards associated with cyclones were flooding, strong winds and coastal erosion, and that these occurring in a densely populated area were of “significant concern”. | Gissing said the primary hazards associated with cyclones were flooding, strong winds and coastal erosion, and that these occurring in a densely populated area were of “significant concern”. |
| “The damage that Alfred could lead to includes damages to homes, businesses and infrastructure; disruption to essential services and supply chains; agricultural losses; and injury and fatalities,” he said. | “The damage that Alfred could lead to includes damages to homes, businesses and infrastructure; disruption to essential services and supply chains; agricultural losses; and injury and fatalities,” he said. |
| “Significant coastal damage can occur without a cyclone making landfall because of abnormally high tides and damaging surf.” | “Significant coastal damage can occur without a cyclone making landfall because of abnormally high tides and damaging surf.” |
| Gissing said homes older than 1980 might not be built to building codes and could be at particular risk to strong winds. | Gissing said homes older than 1980 might not be built to building codes and could be at particular risk to strong winds. |