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Tropical Cyclone Alfred expected to make landfall in Queensland on Saturday as storm slows Cyclone Alfred update: NSW and Queensland prepare for flooding as authorities urge ‘do not underestimate this storm’
(about 8 hours later)
Weather system has stalled, David Crisafulli says, but it’s still on track to cross the coast at category-two strength BoM warns of hazards from ‘erratic’ storm and forecasts it will cross into Queensland on Saturday morning
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to make landfall early on Saturday morning, after the system “spun around on itself” and briefly stalled before resuming its predicted path to the populated south-east Queensland coast. Millions of people in Queensland have hunkered down while residents in parts of northern New South Wales have been ordered to evacuate as Australia’s east coast prepares for wild weather brought by Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
The 3.8 million residents of urban areas between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast had been asked to hunker down in their homes from Thursday, ahead of an anticipated crossing on Friday. The slow-moving storm is now expected to make landfall in Queensland on Saturday morning, later than initially forecast after the category two system “spun around on itself” and briefly stalled overnight on Wednesday.
Some in areas at risk of a severe storm surge were advised to leave before the worst conditions. Schools were closed and public transport halted. The east coast felt the impact of powerful winds and wet weather on Thursday. NSW SES issued an emergency warning residents in 11 locations in the Tweed, Lismore, Brunswick and Richmond catchments to evacuate before 9pm on Thursday night due to potential flooding from the storm. Northern rivers residents that had not been directed to evacuate were advised to stay indoors.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Matthew Callopy said Alfred had “doubled back on its path” before resuming towards the coast, and that its crossing had been delayed by about 24 hours. ⚠️Emergency Warnings - Evacuate before 9:00pm Thu 06 March 2025 for locations:🔺Uki 🔺Fingal Heads 🔺Tumbulgum 🔺North Lismore 🔺South Lismore 🔺Lismore CBD🔺East Lismore 🔺Billinudgel 🔺Low lying parts of Kyogle 🔺Bungawalbin 🔺Low lying areas of Coraki pic.twitter.com/mr3XUymJCt
It is still predicted to cross as a category two storm. Authorities warned forecasted heavy rainfall would close evacuation routes, with the NSW SES acting chief superintendent, Stuart Fisher, saying other areas may be ordered to evacuate on Friday.
Callopy said it was important not to get “hung up” on the precise crossing time because impacts would occur before and after.
At Main Beach on the Gold Coast, waves of 12.3m were recorded yesterday – the highest ever recorded at that site.
Callopy said if Alfred crossed the coast at high tide, storm surges of up to 1.5m were possible, and that parts of the Redland Bay and Gold Coast were likely to be most at risk.
“The hazards including the wind, rainfall, storm surge and flooding remain, and we expect them to develop through the day today as the system approaches the coast,” Callopy said.
“What we’ve seen overnight, in terms of the erratic movement of the system, reiterates the fact this is an evolving situation.”
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Earlier forecasts suggested Alfred could develop into a “high end” category two system, though the most recent predictions are that winds will not be at the high end of the category, and that it was increasingly unlikely Alfred would develop into a category three system. “The weather is deteriorating rapidly for us. Whilst it may look like the rivers aren’t flooding, there is high concern that they will start to flood overnight and continue tomorrow,” he said. “We’ve taken that decision to … ask you to leave early. Do not underestimate this storm.”
The Queensland premier, David Crisafulli, urged Queenslanders to use the additional time to double-check their preparations. Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Matthew Collopy said Alfred had “doubled back on its path” before resuming towards the coast, and that its crossing had been delayed by about 24 hours.
“I have spent a bit of time on the ground yesterday and the message is certainly getting out there,” he said. It is still predicted to cross as a category two storm between Noosa and Coolangatta, north of Brisbane.
“I want to thank people for that. Great stories, as well, of people reaching over the back fence for the first time. Neighbours helping neighbours, and strangers helping strangers and that’s really important at the moment.” Collopy said it was important not to get “hung up” on the precise crossing time because impacts would occur before and after.
Conditions in south-east Queensland were eerily calm on Thursday morning but communities in northern New South Wales had been receiving heavy rain. Some homes in the northern rivers had lost power. At Main Beach on the Gold Coast, waves of 12.3m were recorded on Wednesday – the highest ever recorded at that site.
Where effects from storm surge and rain are already being felt, there are concerns the delayed arrival of Alfred could compound the impacts. Collopy said if Alfred crossed the coast at high tide, storm surges of up to 1.5m were possible, with parts of Redland Bay and Gold Coast were likely to be most at risk.
The New South Wales premier, Chris Minns, said Alfred was behaving “like a completely unwanted house guest”. “The hazards, including the wind, rainfall, storm surge and flooding remain, and we expect them to develop through the day today as the system approaches the coast,” Callopy said.
“It’s going to be late but linger even longer. Unfortunately that means the window for destruction in our community – heavy rains, winds, powerful surf – is longer than we would have otherwise like.” “What we’ve seen overnight, in terms of the erratic movement of the system, reiterates the fact this is an evolving situation.”
The Queensland premier, David Crisafulli, said there had already been 700 requests for SES assistance and urged Queenslanders to use the additional time to double-check their preparations.
“I have spent a bit of time on the ground yesterday and the message is certainly getting out there,” he said. “I want to thank people for that. Great stories, as well, of people reaching over the back fence for the first time. Neighbours helping neighbours, and strangers helping strangers and that’s really important at the moment.”
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Schools, shops, public transport and other normal services have ceased in Brisbane, but sandbag depots were reopened on Thursday to allow additional last-minute fortification of homes and businesses.
Acting police commissioner, Shane Chelepy, warned residents in affected areas in Queensland to prepare for the storm surge, flash flooding and riverine flooding as Cyclone Alfred nears the coast.
“Our riverines, our creeks are very wet and will respond very quickly to intense rainfall as it falls,” he said.
“The emergency services are prepared. They are prepositioned and they are able to respond, but it is now important that communities understand their risk and start to put plans in place not only for the cyclone … but also for flash flooding and riverine flooding.”
“There are waves, there is wind, there is rainfall and there will be flooding. But none of those challenges are insurmountable,” Crisafulli said.
The NSW premier, Chris Minns, said Alfred was behaving “like a completely unwanted house guest”.
“It’s going to be late but linger even longer. Unfortunately that means the window for destruction in our community – heavy rains, winds, powerful surf – is longer than we would have otherwise liked.”
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said he had spoken with the mayor of Lismore, Steve Krieg, overnight.The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said he had spoken with the mayor of Lismore, Steve Krieg, overnight.
“He spoke about what a tough night he’s had with himself and his partner. They are still in recovery mode. They’ve had hit after hit after hit,” Albanese said.“He spoke about what a tough night he’s had with himself and his partner. They are still in recovery mode. They’ve had hit after hit after hit,” Albanese said.
“At the worst of times we always see the best of Australian character. I said yesterday that there were no political parties in this process and there are no borders. Tropical Cyclone Alfred certainly does not recognise any borders and nor should the government’s response.”“At the worst of times we always see the best of Australian character. I said yesterday that there were no political parties in this process and there are no borders. Tropical Cyclone Alfred certainly does not recognise any borders and nor should the government’s response.”
The predicted cyclone’s track to the coast remained consistent, with the bureau stating it should cross somewhere between Noosa and Caloundra. Residents who choose to evacuate their home are urged to stay with friends or family if possible. There have been more than 26 emergency centres established in Queensland and more in NSW. An evacuation centre has been erected at Southern Cross University on Military Road, East Lismore.
Helen Reid, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the delayed track could be troublesome for communities along the coastline, whose natural defences were being eroded by strong surf conditions.
“It’s given us an extra period of coastal erosion,” Reid said. “That sense of coastal protection will be different to what it would otherwise be.”
Reid said Alfred’s progress had stalled overnight but it would probably continue its predicted track to the coast.
“It was making a steady track, but we did see a period of stagnation of movement overnight, and it does look that it will start a more distinct movement to the west [on Thursday],” Reid said.
Parts of northern NSW, already receiving heavy rainfall, would probably receive more in the coming days. Reid said that for communities in south-east Queensland in the path of the cyclone, the impacts would probably be similar to those predicted, just delayed.
An updated Bureau of Meteorology briefing from early Thursday said the models – which had previously largely been consistent in showing Alfred’s speed and path to the coast – had shown “variation in the strength of the steering flow”.
“The consensus is now for slower westward motion, and as a result a delayed time of coastal crossing,” it said.
“The latest track indicates a coastal crossing is more likely during early Saturday morning.”