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| WA election: the west may already be won for Labor – it’s just a matter of by how much | WA election: the west may already be won for Labor – it’s just a matter of by how much |
| (25 days later) | |
| The biggest unknown in the largely predictable Western Australia election campaign is the extent to which Libby Mettam’s Liberals can re-emerge from the political wilderness | The biggest unknown in the largely predictable Western Australia election campaign is the extent to which Libby Mettam’s Liberals can re-emerge from the political wilderness |
| Anyone who has been looking in horror at the political upheaval in the US may welcome Western Australia’s dull and predictable election this weekend. | Anyone who has been looking in horror at the political upheaval in the US may welcome Western Australia’s dull and predictable election this weekend. |
| The Labor premier, Roger Cook, is so assured of winning a third term for his party that the state’s only newspaper didn’t release any public opinion polls until the very eve of the election. | The Labor premier, Roger Cook, is so assured of winning a third term for his party that the state’s only newspaper didn’t release any public opinion polls until the very eve of the election. |
| “There is more polling in Tasmania than there is in Western Australia,” the University of Western Australia political analyst William Bowe says. | “There is more polling in Tasmania than there is in Western Australia,” the University of Western Australia political analyst William Bowe says. |
| After an uninspiring and rushed WA leaders’ debate last month, the big question is how far the Liberals, led by Libby Mettam, can re-emerge from the political wilderness after losing the most-one-sided election in Australia’s history in 2021, when they were reduced to just two seats and stripped of opposition status. | After an uninspiring and rushed WA leaders’ debate last month, the big question is how far the Liberals, led by Libby Mettam, can re-emerge from the political wilderness after losing the most-one-sided election in Australia’s history in 2021, when they were reduced to just two seats and stripped of opposition status. |
| Cook, while not enjoying the same rock-star status as his Covid-era predecessor, Mark McGowan, is popular enough in his own right. | Cook, while not enjoying the same rock-star status as his Covid-era predecessor, Mark McGowan, is popular enough in his own right. |
| On Friday the Australian published a Newspoll that showed Cook’s approval rating at 55%, compared with Mettam at 43%. A DemosAu poll for the West Australian, also published on Friday, had Cook leading 47%-32% as preferred premier, with 21% undecided. | On Friday the Australian published a Newspoll that showed Cook’s approval rating at 55%, compared with Mettam at 43%. A DemosAu poll for the West Australian, also published on Friday, had Cook leading 47%-32% as preferred premier, with 21% undecided. |
| Cook’s profile among the electorate even improved when he inadvertently provided the one breakthrough moment in the campaign – albeit one irrelevant to WA politics – by describing the US vice-president, JD Vance, as a “knob”. He subsequently apologised and acknowledged it was “an extremely poor choice of words” (but also an “extremely popular choice of words”). | Cook’s profile among the electorate even improved when he inadvertently provided the one breakthrough moment in the campaign – albeit one irrelevant to WA politics – by describing the US vice-president, JD Vance, as a “knob”. He subsequently apologised and acknowledged it was “an extremely poor choice of words” (but also an “extremely popular choice of words”). |
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| The last-minute polls reinforce what analysts have been forecasting – that the Liberals might end up in a position similar to the outcome of the 2017 election, when the long-running government under Colin Barnett was swept aside and the party reduced to 13 lower house seats. | The last-minute polls reinforce what analysts have been forecasting – that the Liberals might end up in a position similar to the outcome of the 2017 election, when the long-running government under Colin Barnett was swept aside and the party reduced to 13 lower house seats. |
| The polls put the swing against Labor in the region of 13%, which would give the Liberals about 11 extra seats – nowhere near enough to threaten the government’s majority. | The polls put the swing against Labor in the region of 13%, which would give the Liberals about 11 extra seats – nowhere near enough to threaten the government’s majority. |
| Martin Drum, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Notre Dame, says that kind of result would be “what the Liberals need to just be competitive”. | Martin Drum, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Notre Dame, says that kind of result would be “what the Liberals need to just be competitive”. |
| “It is scary that two election cycles have passed and we are talking about the Liberals trying to get back to the same,” he says. | “It is scary that two election cycles have passed and we are talking about the Liberals trying to get back to the same,” he says. |
| He thinks they will take back nine seats in the Perth metro area, plus Blackwood, Albany and Kalgoorlie in the regions. | He thinks they will take back nine seats in the Perth metro area, plus Blackwood, Albany and Kalgoorlie in the regions. |
| For the Nationals – currently WA’s official opposition, with five seats in the legislative assembly to the Liberals’ two – this election is a whole different ballgame. | For the Nationals – currently WA’s official opposition, with five seats in the legislative assembly to the Liberals’ two – this election is a whole different ballgame. |
| For the first time, West Australians will choose 37 legislative council candidates under a reformed voting system for the upper house, instead of voting for a representative from their district. | For the first time, West Australians will choose 37 legislative council candidates under a reformed voting system for the upper house, instead of voting for a representative from their district. |
| Under the previous system, country areas would elect the same number of representatives as more populous metropolitan areas, leading to an overrepresentation of rural votes. | Under the previous system, country areas would elect the same number of representatives as more populous metropolitan areas, leading to an overrepresentation of rural votes. |
| “The previous system was great for the Nationals because it inflated the value of their votes. There won’t be a Liberal-National majority in the future,” Bowe says. | “The previous system was great for the Nationals because it inflated the value of their votes. There won’t be a Liberal-National majority in the future,” Bowe says. |
| He expects the Nationals to finish with one or two lower-house seats and the Greens to eat into Labor’s overwhelming upper-house majority by taking out four – one less than their 2001 record. | He expects the Nationals to finish with one or two lower-house seats and the Greens to eat into Labor’s overwhelming upper-house majority by taking out four – one less than their 2001 record. |
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| Bowe says the Liberals face a grim election night if they cannot add to their two seats by taking the neighbouring affluent inner-west electorates of Nedlands and Churchlands. The latter is being touted as a sure thing for the current Perth lord mayor, Basil Zempilas. | Bowe says the Liberals face a grim election night if they cannot add to their two seats by taking the neighbouring affluent inner-west electorates of Nedlands and Churchlands. The latter is being touted as a sure thing for the current Perth lord mayor, Basil Zempilas. |
| But the economic divide is no longer between white-collar wealthy people and blue-collar union members, Bowe says. | But the economic divide is no longer between white-collar wealthy people and blue-collar union members, Bowe says. |
| A decline in manufacturing industries and the number of low-skilled workers has flipped how Perth’s outer suburbs vote. | A decline in manufacturing industries and the number of low-skilled workers has flipped how Perth’s outer suburbs vote. |
| “There’s a new class … now that didn’t exist 30 and 40 years ago. These people are abandoning Labor and turning to Liberals,” Bowe says. | “There’s a new class … now that didn’t exist 30 and 40 years ago. These people are abandoning Labor and turning to Liberals,” Bowe says. |
| “Increasingly the Liberals are a party of affluent tradies rather than professionals and riverside people.” | “Increasingly the Liberals are a party of affluent tradies rather than professionals and riverside people.” |
| Meanwhile, Labor has reorientated itself towards tertiary educated voters, and much of its traditional support base has been alienated. This makes space for independents both in WA and at a federal level, Bowe says. | Meanwhile, Labor has reorientated itself towards tertiary educated voters, and much of its traditional support base has been alienated. This makes space for independents both in WA and at a federal level, Bowe says. |
| “You have affluent people who care about climate change, with liberal attitudes towards social policy becoming alienated from the centre right parties who used to be all about them. | “You have affluent people who care about climate change, with liberal attitudes towards social policy becoming alienated from the centre right parties who used to be all about them. |
| “The major-party system reflects that old economy that doesn’t exist any more, and that’s why a third of people are not voting [for] major parties.” | “The major-party system reflects that old economy that doesn’t exist any more, and that’s why a third of people are not voting [for] major parties.” |
| Labor may struggle to hold some seats in regional areas because of the upper house changes and the promised federal ban on live sheep exports. | Labor may struggle to hold some seats in regional areas because of the upper house changes and the promised federal ban on live sheep exports. |
| Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis are also expected to pick up upper house seats, Bowe says. | Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis are also expected to pick up upper house seats, Bowe says. |
| “If the swing is 10%, the Liberals will be lucky to pick up Scarborough and South Perth. If it’s 15%, which is what the national Newspoll from three weeks ago seems to suggest, then they will win those seats comfortably,” Bowe says. | “If the swing is 10%, the Liberals will be lucky to pick up Scarborough and South Perth. If it’s 15%, which is what the national Newspoll from three weeks ago seems to suggest, then they will win those seats comfortably,” Bowe says. |