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Syrian government still faces insurgent threat from Assad loyalists Syrian bloodshed heaps pressure on Sharaa and exposes deep fractures
(3 days later)
In January, days after the first-month anniversary of the fall of the Assad regime in a lightning Islamist-led rebel offensive in Syria, a group of young men - some of them armed - were gathered, checking their phones in the nearly empty interior ministry headquarters in Damascus. Security forces patrolled the streets of Jableh in Latakia province on Sunday
With Bashar al-Assad gone, they had arrived from Idlib, a region in the country's north-west that for years was the only opposition-controlled province in the country. The violence of the last four days in Syria is the worst in the country since an Islamist-led rebel offensive toppled Bashar al-Assad in December, and the most serious challenge to the efforts of interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa to consolidate his power.
Virtually overnight, they had been catapulted to positions once controlled by hand-picked Assad supporters and, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, were in charge of a fractured country devastated by 13 years of civil war. The post-Assad era started with high hopes and relative calm but, as Syria remains deeply fractured, many feared that an explosion of tensions was almost inevitable.
One of them, around 30 years old, had recently been appointed as a high-profile security official, and welcomed me to a room where any sign of the old regime had been removed. Tall and shy, the official made notes on his iPad while acknowledging that the new rulers faced enormous security challenges, including the threat coming from Assad loyalists. With the regime gone, putting an end of more than five decades of Assad family rule, rebels arrived in Damascus from Idlib, a region in Syria's north-west that for years was the only opposition-controlled province in the country.
The rebels were catapulted into positions once controlled by hand-picked Assad supporters and, led by al-Sharaa's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), were in charge of a country devastated by 13 years of civil war.
The dismantling of the security apparatus behind the oppressive machine of the Assads, including the country's army and the ruling Baath party, meant the sacking of hundreds of thousands of people.
Among them were large numbers of the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam to which the Assad family belong. Under the Assads, they held prominent positions.
Now, under Sunni Muslim-led authorities, they have lost their power and privilege, and say they have been under attack and discrimination, despite Sharaa's pledges to respect different religious sects.
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The dismantling of the decades-old apparatus behind the oppressive machine of the Assads, such as the country's army and the ruling Baath party, meant the sacking of hundreds of thousands of people. In January, just over a month after Assad's fall, I met a rebel around 30 years old who had recently been appointed as a high-profile security official.
"There are Assad-affiliated people who haven't engaged with the reconciliation process," said the official, who requested anonymity to be able to discuss sensitive issues, citing the new authorities' call for former members of the security forces to surrender their weapons and ties to the old government. In the nearly empty interior ministry headquarters in Damascus, he welcomed me to a room where any sign of the old regime had been removed.
Tall and shy, the official made notes on his iPad while acknowledging that the new rulers faced enormous challenges, including resistance by Assad loyalists. He requested anonymity to be able to discuss sensitive issues.
"There are Assad-affiliated people who haven't engaged with the reconciliation process," he said, citing the new authorities' call for former members of the security forces to surrender their weapons and ties to the old government.
"Our eyes are on everyone, but we don't want to give the impression that we're after them. That's why there haven't been massive raids.""Our eyes are on everyone, but we don't want to give the impression that we're after them. That's why there haven't been massive raids."
Since then the violence has escalated, particularly in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartous, a stronghold of the Assad family, but clashes were relatively contained. Until Thursday. He also mentioned the threat from Sharaa's more radical supporters, who were frustrated with the pragmatic and conciliatory tone of a man who led al-Qaeda's former Syrian affiliate.
As forces linked to the government carried out an operation in the countryside of Latakia province, targeting a former Assad official, they were ambushed by gunmen. Syria's new leader has tried to convince everyone, especially in the West, that he is a reformed man and that his jihadist ideologies remain in the past.
At least 13 members of the security forces were killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group, in what a regional official described as a well-planned attack carried out by "remnants of the Assad militias". "We recognise that this is a problem," the official said, adding: "we're going to [have to] deal with it."
Initially limited to the Jableh area, the unrest spread more widely. Videos posted online showed heavy gunfire in different areas. The authorities sent reinforcements and, on Friday, further clashes killed more than 120 people, the Syrian Observatory said. For weeks, violence against government forces was on the rise, particularly in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartous - the Alawite heartland and a stronghold for Assad supporters. An insurgency seemed to be growing but the clashes were relatively contained. Until Thursday.
It marked the most violent day since Assad's fall and the biggest challenge yet to interim President Sharaa's transitional government and his efforts to consolidate authority. As forces linked to the government carried out an operation in the countryside of Latakia, targeting a former Assad official, they were ambushed by gunmen in Jableh. A regional official described it as a well-planned attack carried out by "remnants of the Assad militias", with reports that about 4,000 men were involved.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, a research group, former Assad regime members are likely to form the most effective insurgent cells against Syria's new rulers with the ability to coordinate attacks. To curb the rebellion, the authorities sent reinforcements, who were also joined by militias who were not necessarily responding to the orders from Damascus. The operation turned into revenge killings of a sectarian nature: after decades of brutality under the Assads in the mainly Sunni country, many associate Alawites with the old regime.
"[They] already have pre-existing networks that they can leverage to rapidly organize insurgent cells. These networks are military, intelligence, and political networks and criminal syndicates who were regime supporters and lost significant economic and political influence in the aftermath of Assad's fall," they said in a report. A widely shared video showed the bodies of at least two dozen men in civilian clothing, piled in the yard of a house, in the Alawite town of Mukhtareyah. Elsewhere, accounts emerged of fighters searching for Alawite members and killing entire families on the spot.
Syria's coastal areas are also the heartland of Assad's Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shia Islam. Its members held prominent roles in the Assad government but, with the arrival of Sunni Muslim-led rebels, lost the power and privilege they once had. They now say they are under attack and discrimination, despite Sharaa's pledges to respect different religious sects. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group, more than 1,300 people have been killed in Latakia, Tartous, Hama and Homs provinces, a number that includes 973 civilians and hundreds of members of the Syrian security forces and Assad loyalists. The information could not be independently verified.
On Friday, activists said gunmen had killed dozens of male residents in Alawite areas, which will further exacerbate tensions – and possibly drive support for insurgents in their anti-government push. The Syrian Observatory said the gunmen were from the government's security forces, although this has not been verified. Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has vowed to hold accountable those responsible for killing civilians
The authorities also faced resistance from the Druze forces in the south, although a deal was reached earlier this week Sharaa's office announced the creation of an independent committee to investigate the clashes and killings by both sides, saying that he would hold to account anyone who overstepped their authority. "No-one will be above the law," he said in a video speech.
The government in Damascus does not control the whole of Syria, where different factions - supported by different countries - exercise power over different regions. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group, said former Assad regime members were likely to form the most effective insurgent cells against Syria's new rulers with the ability to co-ordinate attacks.
But for Sharaa, the challenge goes beyond the task of trying to keep the country safe. "[They] already have pre-existing networks that they can leverage to rapidly organise insurgent cells. These networks are military, intelligence, and political networks and criminal syndicates who were regime supporters and lost significant economic and political influence in the aftermath of Assad's fall," a report said.
As Western suspicions over his intentions continue, his authorities are also struggling to get crippling sanctions imposed on Syria under the former regime lifted, a vital move to revive the economy of a country where nine in every 10 people are in poverty. The bloodshed will add to the pressure on Sharaa, whose forces do not control the whole of Syria, and where myriad factions - supported by different countries - exercise power over different regions.
Turkish-backed groups are clashing with Kurdish forces that control large areas in north-east, while Israeli troops are occupying parts of the country's south-west. The authorities have also faced resistance from Druze forces in the south, although a deal was reached last week.
However, Sharaa's challenges go beyond the task of trying to keep the country safe. As Western suspicions over his intentions continue, the authorities are struggling to get crippling sanctions imposed on Syria under the former regime lifted, a vital move to revive the economy of a country where nine in every 10 people are in poverty. The recent violence will make those efforts even harder.