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| Guardian Essential poll: Albanese’s approval rating takes a hit but Labor inches ahead of Coalition | Guardian Essential poll: Albanese’s approval rating takes a hit but Labor inches ahead of Coalition |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| Voters scored both PM and Peter Dutton poorly on key leadership questions including trust, competence and being out of touch | Voters scored both PM and Peter Dutton poorly on key leadership questions including trust, competence and being out of touch |
| Labor has ticked ahead of the Coalition on a two-party-plus basis in the first Guardian Essential poll of the election period, as Anthony Albanese turns the blowtorch on Peter Dutton in the opening days of the campaign. | |
| Essential’s “2PP+” measure, which allows voters to remain undecided, put Labor ahead 48% to 47%, with 5% undecided. The survey of 1,100 people was of a piece with recent major polls from Newspoll, Resolve and YouGov, which showed small movements toward Labor in recent weeks. | Essential’s “2PP+” measure, which allows voters to remain undecided, put Labor ahead 48% to 47%, with 5% undecided. The survey of 1,100 people was of a piece with recent major polls from Newspoll, Resolve and YouGov, which showed small movements toward Labor in recent weeks. |
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| It continued a small steady uptick in support for Labor, after the last two polls put the race at 47% to 47% in mid-March, and 47% to 48% to the Coalition in early March. | It continued a small steady uptick in support for Labor, after the last two polls put the race at 47% to 47% in mid-March, and 47% to 48% to the Coalition in early March. |
| But while Albanese’s personal approval ratings took another two-point hit in this week’s poll, with 44% of voters approving and 46% disapproving, he remained ahead of Dutton, who scored 41% and 47% on the same measures. | But while Albanese’s personal approval ratings took another two-point hit in this week’s poll, with 44% of voters approving and 46% disapproving, he remained ahead of Dutton, who scored 41% and 47% on the same measures. |
| Essential’s “primary+” measure also allows voters to remain undecided. It put Labor’s primary vote at 30%, the Coalition’s at 34%, the Greens’ at 12%, and minor party and independent support at 19%, with 5% undecided. | Essential’s “primary+” measure also allows voters to remain undecided. It put Labor’s primary vote at 30%, the Coalition’s at 34%, the Greens’ at 12%, and minor party and independent support at 19%, with 5% undecided. |
| According to the latest analysis from Guardian Australia’s poll tracker – a model developed by political scientists, which follows all the major polls – the Coalition still leads overall on primary and two-party-preferred support. | |
| After four consecutive weeks of gains for Labor, the model showed the party’s two-party-preferred support starting to level off. | |
| Dutton’s campaign, after three days on the road, had visited his own seat of Dickson and the National-held Maranoa; the Greens seat of Brisbane; Labor-held Moreton, McMahon, Macarthur and Paterson; and independent Fowler. But of those, only Brisbane and Paterson are considered seriously in play for the Coalition. | Dutton’s campaign, after three days on the road, had visited his own seat of Dickson and the National-held Maranoa; the Greens seat of Brisbane; Labor-held Moreton, McMahon, Macarthur and Paterson; and independent Fowler. But of those, only Brisbane and Paterson are considered seriously in play for the Coalition. |
| Albanese had visited Coalition-held Dickson and Hinkler, plus Labor-held Eden-Monaro, Canberra and Hasluck. | Albanese had visited Coalition-held Dickson and Hinkler, plus Labor-held Eden-Monaro, Canberra and Hasluck. |
| The early patterns of travel showed Dutton keen to pick up new seats, with the Coalition needing about 20 new seats to win government, while Albanese visited two key seats Labor wants to protect from Liberal challenge. | The early patterns of travel showed Dutton keen to pick up new seats, with the Coalition needing about 20 new seats to win government, while Albanese visited two key seats Labor wants to protect from Liberal challenge. |
| Both Albanese and Dutton continued to score poorly on several key leadership questions among voters. Asked whether the party leaders were “out of touch with ordinary people”, 57% said it of Albanese (down six points from last poll) and 57% also of Dutton (up two points from the last poll). Some 53% of voters described Dutton as “decisive”, but only 44% said the same of Albanese; while 44% described Albanese as “trustworthy”, only 41% said the same of Dutton. | Both Albanese and Dutton continued to score poorly on several key leadership questions among voters. Asked whether the party leaders were “out of touch with ordinary people”, 57% said it of Albanese (down six points from last poll) and 57% also of Dutton (up two points from the last poll). Some 53% of voters described Dutton as “decisive”, but only 44% said the same of Albanese; while 44% described Albanese as “trustworthy”, only 41% said the same of Dutton. |
| The opposition leader was ranked as “competent” by 53% of voters; only 50% described the prime minister that way. | The opposition leader was ranked as “competent” by 53% of voters; only 50% described the prime minister that way. |
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| As the Coalition started campaigning on the slogan of “get Australia back on track”, the Essential poll found just 32% of voters believed Australia was “heading in the right direction”, down from 35% two weeks ago. Another 52% believed Australia was “on the wrong track”, up from 48%. | As the Coalition started campaigning on the slogan of “get Australia back on track”, the Essential poll found just 32% of voters believed Australia was “heading in the right direction”, down from 35% two weeks ago. Another 52% believed Australia was “on the wrong track”, up from 48%. |
| Labor fell behind the Coalition not long after the voice referendum in late 2023, and has only recently begun to look more competitive, with most polls in March either tied or showing Labor ahead. | Labor fell behind the Coalition not long after the voice referendum in late 2023, and has only recently begun to look more competitive, with most polls in March either tied or showing Labor ahead. |
| There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in our modelling. | There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in our modelling. |
| The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field, and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster. | |
| – with Josh Nicholas | – with Josh Nicholas |
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