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| Poorest urban fringe electorates gain most from Labor’s first-term tax and welfare reform, ANU research shows | Poorest urban fringe electorates gain most from Labor’s first-term tax and welfare reform, ANU research shows |
| (about 8 hours later) | |
| Exclusive: The wealthiest households on average will be nearly $800 worse off, modelling reveals, as a result of the rejigged stage-three tax cuts | |
| Households in the poorest outer suburban electorates are among the biggest winners from the social welfare and tax policies pursued by the Albanese government during its first term in power. | Households in the poorest outer suburban electorates are among the biggest winners from the social welfare and tax policies pursued by the Albanese government during its first term in power. |
| Analysis by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Policy Research has revealed how a highly progressive Labor agenda will boost incomes among the least well-off households by an average of $1,672 in 2025-26. | Analysis by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Policy Research has revealed how a highly progressive Labor agenda will boost incomes among the least well-off households by an average of $1,672 in 2025-26. |
| At the other end of the spectrum, the wealthiest households on average will be nearly $800 worse off, the modelling shows, as the rejigged stage-three tax cuts leave them worse off than they would have been without the change. | |
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| The high cost of living has consistently rated as the No 1 issue cited by voters before the 3 May election, and the new research suggests that Labor’s policy changes have been targeted towards helping those most in need. | |
| This is reflected in the breakdown of winners and losers by electorate, where lower socioeconomic suburbs have done the best, at the expense of richer areas – most often in inner-city regions. | This is reflected in the breakdown of winners and losers by electorate, where lower socioeconomic suburbs have done the best, at the expense of richer areas – most often in inner-city regions. |
| Households in the safe Labor seat of Spence in outer Adelaide are the biggest winners, with an average annual income gain of $1,360 in 2025-26, the ANU modelling shows. | Households in the safe Labor seat of Spence in outer Adelaide are the biggest winners, with an average annual income gain of $1,360 in 2025-26, the ANU modelling shows. |
| This is followed by a $1,240 gain for households in the marginal far-north Queensland electorate of Leichhardt, where Labor hopes to win the seat held for decades by the retiring Liberal MP, Warren Entsch. | This is followed by a $1,240 gain for households in the marginal far-north Queensland electorate of Leichhardt, where Labor hopes to win the seat held for decades by the retiring Liberal MP, Warren Entsch. |
| Households in the marginal seats of Fowler in western Sydney (held by independent Dai Le) and Brisbane’s Blair (Labor) will also be more than $1,200 better off. | Households in the marginal seats of Fowler in western Sydney (held by independent Dai Le) and Brisbane’s Blair (Labor) will also be more than $1,200 better off. |
| Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ seat of Rankin in Brisbane is among the top five. In contrast, households in Anthony Albanese’s now wealthy inner-Sydney electorate of Grayndler will be $200 worse off in the next financial year as a result of the modelled changes enacted during the 47th parliament. | |
| In an upcoming research paper, ANU academics – Ben Phillips, Cukkoo Joseph, Richard Webster and Matt Gray – estimate that the policy changes over Labor’s four budgets will add $7.5bn to households’ disposable incomes in the coming financial year. | In an upcoming research paper, ANU academics – Ben Phillips, Cukkoo Joseph, Richard Webster and Matt Gray – estimate that the policy changes over Labor’s four budgets will add $7.5bn to households’ disposable incomes in the coming financial year. |
| Those policies include an extra $2.5bn from personal income tax changes (including the modified stage-three tax relief), while higher jobseeker rates will add about $1.1bn, commonwealth rent assistance $1.2bn, parenting payment $1.1bn, and increased childcare subsidy about $2bn. | |
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| The temporary energy rebates were not included in the analysis, or “in-kind” benefits such as changes to Medicare or the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. | The temporary energy rebates were not included in the analysis, or “in-kind” benefits such as changes to Medicare or the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. |
| The ANU researchers noted that 14 of the 20 electorates with negative outcomes or smallest gains were all within greater Sydney, including Warringah, Bradfield, Wentworth, North Sydney and Mackellar. | |
| “The likely driver of the substantial hit to these regions is their lack of gain from welfare payments, and the re-jigged stage 3 tax policy in 2024 providing substantially less tax cuts than was the case relative to the 2022 policy of the previous government,” they wrote. | “The likely driver of the substantial hit to these regions is their lack of gain from welfare payments, and the re-jigged stage 3 tax policy in 2024 providing substantially less tax cuts than was the case relative to the 2022 policy of the previous government,” they wrote. |
| The biggest losers are households in Warringah in Sydney’s northern beaches, held by the teal independent Zali Steggall, where incomes would be on average nearly $1,000 lower, the modelling shows. | |
| The wealthy Sydney north shore suburbs in the marginal Liberal-held seat of Bradfield are the next worse off, where the average household income will be $850 lower. | The wealthy Sydney north shore suburbs in the marginal Liberal-held seat of Bradfield are the next worse off, where the average household income will be $850 lower. |
| In all, households in 13 of the 151 electorates have been left worse off under Labor’s policy changes – and seven of those held by teal MPs, mostly by small margins. | In all, households in 13 of the 151 electorates have been left worse off under Labor’s policy changes – and seven of those held by teal MPs, mostly by small margins. |