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| Hopes for Iran nuclear talks tempered by threats and mixed messages | Hopes for Iran nuclear talks tempered by threats and mixed messages |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Iran and the US have held a second round of high-stakes nuclear talks in Rome - and agreed to meet again next week - even as hopes for de-escalation are tempered by mounting military threats and mixed messages. | |
| US President Donald Trump reminds Tehran nearly every day of its options: a deal or war. | US President Donald Trump reminds Tehran nearly every day of its options: a deal or war. |
| He has previously said Israel would lead a military response if the talks failed. | He has previously said Israel would lead a military response if the talks failed. |
| On Wednesday, the New York Times reported that Trump had "waved off" an Israeli plan to strike Iranian nuclear sites as early as next month. | On Wednesday, the New York Times reported that Trump had "waved off" an Israeli plan to strike Iranian nuclear sites as early as next month. |
| "I wouldn't say waved off. I'm not in a rush to do it," Trump told reporters in response to the article on Thursday, adding that he preferred to give diplomacy a chance. | "I wouldn't say waved off. I'm not in a rush to do it," Trump told reporters in response to the article on Thursday, adding that he preferred to give diplomacy a chance. |
| "I think that Iran has a chance to have a great country and to live happily without death... That's my first option. If there's a second option, I think it would be very bad for Iran." | "I think that Iran has a chance to have a great country and to live happily without death... That's my first option. If there's a second option, I think it would be very bad for Iran." |
| After both sides described the first round of talks in Oman last weekend as constructive, Trump had said he would be "making a decision on Iran very quickly". | After both sides described the first round of talks in Oman last weekend as constructive, Trump had said he would be "making a decision on Iran very quickly". |
| Why Iran returned to the table | Why Iran returned to the table |
| In 2018, Trump pulled the US out of a 2015 agreement which saw Iran limit its nuclear activities and allow inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in return for sanctions relief. | In 2018, Trump pulled the US out of a 2015 agreement which saw Iran limit its nuclear activities and allow inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in return for sanctions relief. |
| He said it did too little to stop Iran's potential pathway to a nuclear weapon and reinstated US sanctions as part of a "maximum pressure" campaign to compel Iran to negotiate a new deal. | He said it did too little to stop Iran's potential pathway to a nuclear weapon and reinstated US sanctions as part of a "maximum pressure" campaign to compel Iran to negotiate a new deal. |
| However, Iran refused and increasingly breached restrictions in retaliation. It has now stockpiled enough highly-enriched uranium to make several bombs if it chose to do so - something it says it would never do. | However, Iran refused and increasingly breached restrictions in retaliation. It has now stockpiled enough highly-enriched uranium to make several bombs if it chose to do so - something it says it would never do. |
| President Masoud Pezeshkian was shown Iran's nuclear technology at an exhibition in Tehran earlier this month | President Masoud Pezeshkian was shown Iran's nuclear technology at an exhibition in Tehran earlier this month |
| The threat of military action appears to have played a role in bringing Iran back to the negotiating table. Yet it insists that is not the reason. | The threat of military action appears to have played a role in bringing Iran back to the negotiating table. Yet it insists that is not the reason. |
| The website of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran had agreed to talks only because the US limited its demands strictly to nuclear issues - not out of fear of US and Israeli strikes. | The website of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran had agreed to talks only because the US limited its demands strictly to nuclear issues - not out of fear of US and Israeli strikes. |
| Even so, reaching a deal remains far from certain. | Even so, reaching a deal remains far from certain. |
| Trump's Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who is leading the US negotiating team, posted on X on Tuesday: "Any final arrangement must set a framework for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East - meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization programme." | Trump's Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who is leading the US negotiating team, posted on X on Tuesday: "Any final arrangement must set a framework for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East - meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization programme." |
| It came just a day after he had suggested in an interview with Fox News that Iran would be allowed to continue enriching uranium. | It came just a day after he had suggested in an interview with Fox News that Iran would be allowed to continue enriching uranium. |
| US envoy Steve Witkoff (L) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (R) are heading the two negotiating teams | US envoy Steve Witkoff (L) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (R) are heading the two negotiating teams |
| "They do not need to enrich past 3.67%," he said, referring to the limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal. | "They do not need to enrich past 3.67%," he said, referring to the limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal. |
| "This is going to be much about verification on the enrichment programme and then ultimately verification on weaponization." | "This is going to be much about verification on the enrichment programme and then ultimately verification on weaponization." |
| Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the head of the Iranian delegation, responded by noting Witkoff's "contradictory statements" and stressing that "real positions will be made clear at the negotiating table". | Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the head of the Iranian delegation, responded by noting Witkoff's "contradictory statements" and stressing that "real positions will be made clear at the negotiating table". |
| "We are ready to build trust regarding possible concerns over Iran's enrichment, but the principle of enrichment is not negotiable," he said. | "We are ready to build trust regarding possible concerns over Iran's enrichment, but the principle of enrichment is not negotiable," he said. |
| Diplomatic flurry | Diplomatic flurry |
| Saturday's talks in Rome come amid a flurry of diplomatic activity. | Saturday's talks in Rome come amid a flurry of diplomatic activity. |
| Saudi Arabia's Defence Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, visited Tehran on Thursday, delivering a personal message from his father King Salman to Ayatollah Khamenei. He also met Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian. | Saudi Arabia's Defence Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, visited Tehran on Thursday, delivering a personal message from his father King Salman to Ayatollah Khamenei. He also met Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian. |
| Iran has warned that any US military action would be met with retaliation against American bases in the region - many of them hosted by Iran's Arab neighbours. | Iran has warned that any US military action would be met with retaliation against American bases in the region - many of them hosted by Iran's Arab neighbours. |
| Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R), met Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (L) in Tehran | Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R), met Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (L) in Tehran |
| At the same time, Araghchi visited Moscow and handed a letter from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin. | At the same time, Araghchi visited Moscow and handed a letter from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin. |
| Iran and Russia have strengthened their military ties since the start of the war in Ukraine, with Tehran accused of supplying drones to support Moscow's war effort. | Iran and Russia have strengthened their military ties since the start of the war in Ukraine, with Tehran accused of supplying drones to support Moscow's war effort. |
| The Russian parliament ratified a 20-year strategic partnership between Iran and Russia 10 days ago. However, the deal does not include a mutual defence clause. | The Russian parliament ratified a 20-year strategic partnership between Iran and Russia 10 days ago. However, the deal does not include a mutual defence clause. |
| Meanwhile, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi completed a two-day visit to Tehran this week, meeting Iranian nuclear officials and the foreign minister in a bid to ease tensions and restore inspection protocols. | Meanwhile, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi completed a two-day visit to Tehran this week, meeting Iranian nuclear officials and the foreign minister in a bid to ease tensions and restore inspection protocols. |
| Atmosphere of distrust | Atmosphere of distrust |
| Since Trump returned to office this year, Ayatollah Khamenei has consistently denounced negotiations with Washington. | Since Trump returned to office this year, Ayatollah Khamenei has consistently denounced negotiations with Washington. |
| "Negotiating with this administration is not logical, not wise, nor honourable," he said in a February speech, just two months before agreeing to the current round of talks. | "Negotiating with this administration is not logical, not wise, nor honourable," he said in a February speech, just two months before agreeing to the current round of talks. |
| The supreme leader's distrust stems from Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the "maximum pressure" campaign that followed, and the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in a US strike in Iraq in 2020. | The supreme leader's distrust stems from Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the "maximum pressure" campaign that followed, and the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in a US strike in Iraq in 2020. |
| Ayatollah Khamenei expressed satisfaction with the first round of talks, saying it was "implemented well". | Ayatollah Khamenei expressed satisfaction with the first round of talks, saying it was "implemented well". |
| But he cautioned that he was "neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic". | But he cautioned that he was "neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic". |
| As many as six US B-2 bombers relocated in March to a base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia | As many as six US B-2 bombers relocated in March to a base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia |
| He has also previously warned that Iran would ​retaliate in the event of strikes on its nuclear programme. | He has also previously warned that Iran would ​retaliate in the event of strikes on its nuclear programme. |
| Some officials, including his adviser Ali Larijani, have even said that Iran might be "forced" to acquire a nuclear weapon if attacked. | Some officials, including his adviser Ali Larijani, have even said that Iran might be "forced" to acquire a nuclear weapon if attacked. |
| "We are not pursuing weapons, and we have no problem with IAEA oversight - even indefinitely. But if you resort to bombing, Iran will have no choice but to reconsider. That is not in your interest," Larijani told state TV earlier this month. | "We are not pursuing weapons, and we have no problem with IAEA oversight - even indefinitely. But if you resort to bombing, Iran will have no choice but to reconsider. That is not in your interest," Larijani told state TV earlier this month. |
| Direct or indirect? | Direct or indirect? |
| Each side is pushing its own narrative about how the talks are being conducted. | Each side is pushing its own narrative about how the talks are being conducted. |
| The US says they are direct. Iran says they indirect, and that Oman is mediating by exchanging written notes. | The US says they are direct. Iran says they indirect, and that Oman is mediating by exchanging written notes. |
| After the first round in Muscat, Araghchi acknowledged he had a brief exchange with Witkoff "out of diplomatic courtesy" after crossing paths. | After the first round in Muscat, Araghchi acknowledged he had a brief exchange with Witkoff "out of diplomatic courtesy" after crossing paths. |
| US news website Axios, citing sources, reported the two chief negotiators spoke for up to 45 minutes. | US news website Axios, citing sources, reported the two chief negotiators spoke for up to 45 minutes. |
| Tehran prefers secrecy. Washington seeks publicity. | Tehran prefers secrecy. Washington seeks publicity. |
| After both sides put out positive statements about the first round, Iran's currency surged by 20%. | After both sides put out positive statements about the first round, Iran's currency surged by 20%. |
| Iran's leadership is well aware of public discontent over the country's harsh economic conditions - and the potential for protests it may trigger. | Iran's leadership is well aware of public discontent over the country's harsh economic conditions - and the potential for protests it may trigger. |
| For the Islamic Republic, the fear is not just over bombs - it's protests too. | For the Islamic Republic, the fear is not just over bombs - it's protests too. |