'Support for Reform has surged – what does this mean for UK politics? Our panel responds' diff viewer (4/5)

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Support for Reform has surged – what does this mean for UK politics? Our panel responds	Support for Reform has surged – what does this mean for UK politics? Our panel responds
2025-05-02 16:08:21 UTC	2025-05-02 16:40:58 UTC (33 minutes later)
Can Farage’s party now claim to be the official opposition? And what lessons should Labour and the Tories learn after a chastening night?	Can Farage’s party now claim to be the official opposition? And what lessons should Labour and the Tories learn after a chastening night?
Farage can be beaten, but not by echoing his policies	Farage can be beaten, but not by echoing his policies
Gaby Hinsliff	Gaby Hinsliff
Guardian columnist	Guardian columnist
Don’t panic.	Don’t panic.
Faced with Reform UK winning the Runcorn and Helsby byelection (just), the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty and a likely avalanche of council seats, panic will be a popular option for Labour and the Tories, but a bad one. Instead, it is time to think, hard.	Faced with Reform UK winning the Runcorn and Helsby byelection (just), the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty and a likely avalanche of council seats, panic will be a popular option for Labour and the Tories, but a bad one. Instead, it is time to think, hard.
Voting Reform is essentially lashing out, a howl of protest at the state of everything. It deserves an answer, but copying Greater Lincolnshire’s Andrea Jenkyns – who would put migrants in tents because hotels are too good for them – ain’t it. Mainstream politicians miserably echoing things they don’t believe merely tells Reform voters that Reform was right all along, while guaranteeing Tory extinction in the southern shires and repelling Greens or Lib Dems whose tactical votes Labour needs.	Voting Reform is essentially lashing out, a howl of protest at the state of everything. It deserves an answer, but copying Greater Lincolnshire’s Andrea Jenkyns – who would put migrants in tents because hotels are too good for them – ain’t it. Mainstream politicians miserably echoing things they don’t believe merely tells Reform voters that Reform was right all along, while guaranteeing Tory extinction in the southern shires and repelling Greens or Lib Dems whose tactical votes Labour needs.
Politics in a time of fragmentation is basically the race to build a winning bloc, some stable-ish combination of warring leftwing or rightwing parties, before the other guy. For Labour, that involves doing some things progressives hate (credible action on immigration, endless flag waving) but sticking to its guns on net zero, rebuilding public services, tackling poverty and hopelessness.	Politics in a time of fragmentation is basically the race to build a winning bloc, some stable-ish combination of warring leftwing or rightwing parties, before the other guy. For Labour, that involves doing some things progressives hate (credible action on immigration, endless flag waving) but sticking to its guns on net zero, rebuilding public services, tackling poverty and hopelessness.
If this is 2013 all over again – the last time Nigel Farage triumphed in local elections – in 2015, David Cameron was reelected. Farage is beatable, but not by chucking the baby out with the bathwater.	If this is 2013 all over again – the last time Nigel Farage triumphed in local elections – in 2015, David Cameron was reelected. Farage is beatable, but not by chucking the baby out with the bathwater.
Now it’s clear: Reform is the new party of the right	Now it’s clear: Reform is the new party of the right
John McTernan	John McTernan
Former political secretary to Tony Blair and current political strategist for BCW	Former political secretary to Tony Blair and current political strategist for BCW
Two-party politics is back. The election results declared so far this morning show that the future of British politics is a fight between two main parties – Labour and Reform. The opinion polls were right: Nigel Farage is the leader of the right in Britain. The humiliating slump in support for the Conservative party puts Kemi Badenoch’s leadership on life support and means that Reform will dictate the terms of any deal between the two parties of the right. In politics you can never argue with momentum – and Farage certainly has it.	Two-party politics is back. The election results declared so far this morning show that the future of British politics is a fight between two main parties – Labour and Reform. The opinion polls were right: Nigel Farage is the leader of the right in Britain. The humiliating slump in support for the Conservative party puts Kemi Badenoch’s leadership on life support and means that Reform will dictate the terms of any deal between the two parties of the right. In politics you can never argue with momentum – and Farage certainly has it.
With support slumping, Labour retained mayoralties in Doncaster, North Tyneside, and the West of England, pushing Reform into second place – demonstrating that Labour’s Rolls-Royce election machine is still the best in class and that Green-leaning progressive voters can be turned out for Labour when it matters.	With support slumping, Labour retained mayoralties in Doncaster, North Tyneside, and the West of England, pushing Reform into second place – demonstrating that Labour’s Rolls-Royce election machine is still the best in class and that Green-leaning progressive voters can be turned out for Labour when it matters.
What should be taken from the results? That the electoral contest is now all about change – that was Labour’s slogan last year and is also the message implicit in the name of Farage’s party. But change to what? Reform is clear – being pro-worker and pro-nationalisation, a sort of Labour-lite. That’s a fight Labour can win if it remembers who the party is for.	What should be taken from the results? That the electoral contest is now all about change – that was Labour’s slogan last year and is also the message implicit in the name of Farage’s party. But change to what? Reform is clear – being pro-worker and pro-nationalisation, a sort of Labour-lite. That’s a fight Labour can win if it remembers who the party is for.
Labour has no connection with voters on an emotional level	Labour has no connection with voters on an emotional level
Carys Afoko	Carys Afoko
Communications strategist and co-host of the Over the Top, Under the Radar podcast	Communications strategist and co-host of the Over the Top, Under the Radar podcast
There are still many votes to be counted. And, even once they are in, the number of seats being contested this week is too small to tell us anything definitive about the UK’s political future. So far, turnout has been low, and Reform’s surge has mostly harmed the Conservatives. But the results, especially in Runcorn and Lincolnshire, are still a headache for Labour.	There are still many votes to be counted. And, even once they are in, the number of seats being contested this week is too small to tell us anything definitive about the UK’s political future. So far, turnout has been low, and Reform’s surge has mostly harmed the Conservatives. But the results, especially in Runcorn and Lincolnshire, are still a headache for Labour.
They should be a sign that their current strategy isn’t working. There will undoubtedly be some in the party who look to Mark Carney’s recent victory in Canada and say the solution is a change of leader. Switch out Keir Starmer for Wes Streeting and all our troubles will be over.	They should be a sign that their current strategy isn’t working. There will undoubtedly be some in the party who look to Mark Carney’s recent victory in Canada and say the solution is a change of leader. Switch out Keir Starmer for Wes Streeting and all our troubles will be over.
They are missing the bigger issue. What Nigel Farage and Reform have is momentum and, more importantly, a coherent story about what is wrong with Britain and what must happen to fix it. Until Labour has a competing story that connects with the public on an emotional level it will continue to flounder. Farage launched his local election campaign riding into a rally on a JCB and talking about potholes. He ended his speech with a five-year plan to get Reform into government. Labour needs to be similarly bold in setting out a vision and as effective in communicating it.	They are missing the bigger issue. What Nigel Farage and Reform have is momentum and, more importantly, a coherent story about what is wrong with Britain and what must happen to fix it. Until Labour has a competing story that connects with the public on an emotional level it will continue to flounder. Farage launched his local election campaign riding into a rally on a JCB and talking about potholes. He ended his speech with a five-year plan to get Reform into government. Labour needs to be similarly bold in setting out a vision and as effective in communicating it.
Voters have lost faith in the old, tired parties	Voters have lost faith in the old, tired parties
Caroline Lucas	Caroline Lucas
Environmental activist and former Green MP	Environmental activist and former Green MP
We are celebrating our gains in counties such as Gloucestershire, Devon and Worcestershire, where we have taken seats from both Labour and the Conservatives. And in areas now dominated by Reform, such as Staffordshire and Durham, it falls to us to show robust and principled opposition.	We are celebrating our gains in counties such as Gloucestershire, Devon and Worcestershire, where we have taken seats from both Labour and the Conservatives. And in areas now dominated by Reform, such as Staffordshire and Durham, it falls to us to show robust and principled opposition.
We’re now in an unprecedented era of five-party politics in the UK, yet we’re stuck with first past the post – an electoral system built for a bygone era of two-party dominance. The result is a fundamentally broken relationship between how people vote and who holds power – and, as the outcomes of the byelection in Runcorn and the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty have just shown, the main beneficiaries are the populist Reform, capitalising on public anger and weaponising it against minorities and against our institutions. Whatever the final results today, one thing is certain: if we’re serious about restoring trust in politics, we have to start by replacing our archaic voting system with a fairer alternative.	We’re now in an unprecedented era of five-party politics in the UK, yet we’re stuck with first past the post – an electoral system built for a bygone era of two-party dominance. The result is a fundamentally broken relationship between how people vote and who holds power – and, as the outcomes of the byelection in Runcorn and the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty have just shown, the main beneficiaries are the populist Reform, capitalising on public anger and weaponising it against minorities and against our institutions. Whatever the final results today, one thing is certain: if we’re serious about restoring trust in politics, we have to start by replacing our archaic voting system with a fairer alternative.
There are particular lessons for Labour. Trying to out-Reform Reform doesn’t work. Instead of lurching to the right, the government urgently needs to rethink its approach. It could start by addressing the genuine concerns of working people by taxing wealth so we can rebuild our creaking public services, and reversing its cruel decisions to remove support from sick and disabled people.	There are particular lessons for Labour. Trying to out-Reform Reform doesn’t work. Instead of lurching to the right, the government urgently needs to rethink its approach. It could start by addressing the genuine concerns of working people by taxing wealth so we can rebuild our creaking public services, and reversing its cruel decisions to remove support from sick and disabled people.
As Greens, we understand why people have lost faith in the old, tired parties. As they collapse in popularity, we know we will take votes from both, as we did in the general election, where even under the two-party system we’ve managed to work strategically to break through – often being the only credible alternative to the rise of Reform. And unlike Reform, we have a track record of delivery, having formed part of the ruling administration of over 40 councils, including Bristol city council, where we took control last year. We’ve increased our number of councillors seven years in a row, and we are sure this will be an eighth. We know voters want change, and Greens have that bold and positive vision that stands in contrast to Reform whose politics breed fear and division.	As Greens, we understand why people have lost faith in the old, tired parties. As they collapse in popularity, we know we will take votes from both, as we did in the general election, where even under the two-party system we’ve managed to work strategically to break through – often being the only credible alternative to the rise of Reform. And unlike Reform, we have a track record of delivery, having formed part of the ruling administration of over 40 councils, including Bristol city council, where we took control last year. We’ve increased our number of councillors seven years in a row, and we are sure this will be an eighth. We know voters want change, and Greens have that bold and positive vision that stands in contrast to Reform whose politics breed fear and division.
	Labour should take note of how the Lib Dems have played these elections
	Meral Hussein-Ece
	Liberal Democrat peer
	It is often said that all politics is local. We have rarely seen such volatility in local council elections, as voters are increasingly motivated by national concerns such as the cost of living.
	The Liberal Democrats have made significant council seat gains, especially in the south-west of England, building on the 72 MPs elected last July. At the time of writing, it looks as though the Lib Dems have overtaken Labour in terms of councillors elected so far, making the second largest number of net gains.
	With Reform’s dramatic win of Runcorn and Helsby, it would appear that voting for the party is the new spoiled ballot paper, a protest vote from both former Tory and Labour voters. Reform’s success matters in terms of policy direction, if it means Labour will mimic its policies to win back voters. The Tories are already adopting Reform policies while telling people not to vote for them. The government should take note of how that is working out.
Whatever their excuses, this was a dismal result for the Tories	Whatever their excuses, this was a dismal result for the Tories
Henry Hill	Henry Hill
Deputy editor of ConservativeHome	Deputy editor of ConservativeHome
There are bad nights and there are very bad nights, and for the Conservatives last night was the latter.	There are bad nights and there are very bad nights, and for the Conservatives last night was the latter.