This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It will not be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/today/hi/today/newsid_8380000/8380464.stm

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Do the Scots want independence? Do the Scots want independence?
(4 days later)
By James Naughtie Today programmeBy James Naughtie Today programme
Spending a little time in recent weeks trying to get the pulse of Scotland is a tricky business.Spending a little time in recent weeks trying to get the pulse of Scotland is a tricky business.
A couple of things are obvious, but they leave you uncertain about which way people may turn.A couple of things are obvious, but they leave you uncertain about which way people may turn.
First, Alex Salmond, First Minister, has been able to confound the unionist parties - for these purposes you can think of Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as being in the same camp - and to force them, rather cleverly, to dance to his tune.First, Alex Salmond, First Minister, has been able to confound the unionist parties - for these purposes you can think of Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as being in the same camp - and to force them, rather cleverly, to dance to his tune.
Scotland's First Minister is pressing for a referendumScotland's First Minister is pressing for a referendum
But second, Scotland does not seem to be straining at the leash for a referendum on independence, let alone a break from the UK.But second, Scotland does not seem to be straining at the leash for a referendum on independence, let alone a break from the UK.
On Monday, St Andrew's Day, Mr Salmond will produce his white paper arguing the case for a referendum.On Monday, St Andrew's Day, Mr Salmond will produce his white paper arguing the case for a referendum.
Over the last few years opinion polls have put the level of support for a referendum at somewhere around a third, dipping or rising from time to time.Over the last few years opinion polls have put the level of support for a referendum at somewhere around a third, dipping or rising from time to time.
Roughly speaking, an equal number is sceptical (sometimes passionately so).Roughly speaking, an equal number is sceptical (sometimes passionately so).
But, as I discovered in Kilmarnock, it is easy to spend time with ordinary Scots - not involved in politics - and hear independence dismissed out of hand.But, as I discovered in Kilmarnock, it is easy to spend time with ordinary Scots - not involved in politics - and hear independence dismissed out of hand.
Independence talkIndependence talk
I went to Kilmarnock in Ayrshire, where a town stripped of all but one of its big employers is now facing the blow it has always feared but thought might never come: the loss of the Johnny Walker bottling plant, and 700 jobs. I went to Kilmarnock in Ayrshire, where a town stripped of all but one of its big employers is now facing the blow it has always feared but thought might never come: the loss of the Johnnie Walker bottling plant, and 700 jobs.
It is a disaster for the town, and the workers at the Diageo plant see no salvation in the SNP's long-term remedy.It is a disaster for the town, and the workers at the Diageo plant see no salvation in the SNP's long-term remedy.
They're angry, and depressed, but for many of them that is not translated into the language of independence.They're angry, and depressed, but for many of them that is not translated into the language of independence.
A recent by-election victory in Glasgow has given Labour cause for optimismA recent by-election victory in Glasgow has given Labour cause for optimism
This is, in part, a reaction to the world financial crisis which seems to have encouraged the feeling that it is no time to be going it alone.This is, in part, a reaction to the world financial crisis which seems to have encouraged the feeling that it is no time to be going it alone.
Poor Mr Salmond is on record once too often talking about the "arc of prosperity from Dublin to Reykjavik" which has now disappeared in the storm.Poor Mr Salmond is on record once too often talking about the "arc of prosperity from Dublin to Reykjavik" which has now disappeared in the storm.
It is quite natural that, in bad times, caution comes to the fore.It is quite natural that, in bad times, caution comes to the fore.
Owen Dudley Edwards, an Irishman who has taught history at Scottish universities for four decades, and a long-standing supporter of the SNP, told us that the honest answer to the independence question from most Scots was "we'll see…"Owen Dudley Edwards, an Irishman who has taught history at Scottish universities for four decades, and a long-standing supporter of the SNP, told us that the honest answer to the independence question from most Scots was "we'll see…"
The SNP believes that time will bring a majority around to the view that independence is more like a natural development from devolution - and friendly business with England - than a painful separation.The SNP believes that time will bring a majority around to the view that independence is more like a natural development from devolution - and friendly business with England - than a painful separation.
And the unionist parties have struggled to make this seem unreasonable, relying instead on the instincts of many people that it would probably be expensive, unnecessary, and divisive.And the unionist parties have struggled to make this seem unreasonable, relying instead on the instincts of many people that it would probably be expensive, unnecessary, and divisive.
That unease is palpable and is evidently shared by a majority. But if the unionist case is not put more strongly, that could well change.That unease is palpable and is evidently shared by a majority. But if the unionist case is not put more strongly, that could well change.
UrgencyUrgency
The picture of a Scotland hit by unemployment and financial difficulty is not necessarily one that will last. With better times, might the SNP's prospectus start to advance again?The picture of a Scotland hit by unemployment and financial difficulty is not necessarily one that will last. With better times, might the SNP's prospectus start to advance again?
More tax raising powers may be given to the Scottish parliamentMore tax raising powers may be given to the Scottish parliament
Lord Forsyth, a former Conservative Scottish secretary, certainly thinks so. He told me that he thought it was urgent for unionists to call Mr Salmond's bluff, as he put it, and have an early referendum which would settle the issue.Lord Forsyth, a former Conservative Scottish secretary, certainly thinks so. He told me that he thought it was urgent for unionists to call Mr Salmond's bluff, as he put it, and have an early referendum which would settle the issue.
This urgency, however, is no political game. He also told me he believes, for the first time in his political life, that there is a possibility of the UK breaking up.This urgency, however, is no political game. He also told me he believes, for the first time in his political life, that there is a possibility of the UK breaking up.
So there are two impressions. First, that there is no independence tide raging across Scotland.So there are two impressions. First, that there is no independence tide raging across Scotland.
But second, that no-one should assume that Mr Salmond - canny, quick on his feet, with political timing that often leaves his opponents floundering - is going to lose his touch.But second, that no-one should assume that Mr Salmond - canny, quick on his feet, with political timing that often leaves his opponents floundering - is going to lose his touch.
He has long believed that if a Cameron government were elected, with only a handful of MPs representing Scotland, he would be in a strong position to stir up a populist tide for a referendum "yes" vote.He has long believed that if a Cameron government were elected, with only a handful of MPs representing Scotland, he would be in a strong position to stir up a populist tide for a referendum "yes" vote.
It is clear that the constitutional question will be a central part of the election campaign in Scotland. But it is not simply a Scottish matter. It affects England too.It is clear that the constitutional question will be a central part of the election campaign in Scotland. But it is not simply a Scottish matter. It affects England too.
It is often assumed blindly that a majority south of the border would utter a united cry of "good riddance" in the event of a referendum "yes".It is often assumed blindly that a majority south of the border would utter a united cry of "good riddance" in the event of a referendum "yes".
That may be true (though I'm just a little sceptical) but whatever the real state of opinion in England, it's evident that the argument is still very rudimentary.That may be true (though I'm just a little sceptical) but whatever the real state of opinion in England, it's evident that the argument is still very rudimentary.
Those who argue, for example, that Scotland is feather-bedded in public spending, have to cope with the fact that, by the same criteria as they apply to Scotland, north-east England does even better.Those who argue, for example, that Scotland is feather-bedded in public spending, have to cope with the fact that, by the same criteria as they apply to Scotland, north-east England does even better.
This argument is a dead end. How many people are happy to make comparisons between public spending in Manchester and Surrey as a basis for public policy? You quickly find yourself going round in circles.This argument is a dead end. How many people are happy to make comparisons between public spending in Manchester and Surrey as a basis for public policy? You quickly find yourself going round in circles.
No, the question is more fundamental. How important is the UK to people across the islands? To most Scots, it still matters. But it's a matter of debate among them. In England, before a referendum comes, there needs to be a mature debate, too. And that has hardly started.No, the question is more fundamental. How important is the UK to people across the islands? To most Scots, it still matters. But it's a matter of debate among them. In England, before a referendum comes, there needs to be a mature debate, too. And that has hardly started.