Polish presidential election too close to call, exit polls suggest
Poland election: Conservative historian Nawrocki set to win presidential vote
(about 7 hours later)
Presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski has claimed an early win but his winning margin is well within the margin of error, one exit poll suggests
Unofficial results suggest presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki will be Poland's next president
A second exit poll in Poland's presidential election has indicated that conservative historian Karol Nawrocki is ahead with 50.7% of the vote over Warsaw's liberal mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski with 49.3%.
Right-wing historian Karol Nawrocki looks set to be Poland's new president, with 100% of the votes now counted by the state electoral commission (PKW).
The second exit poll sensationally overturned the result of an exit poll published immediately after voting ended that put Trzaskowski ahead with a narrow lead of 50.3% to Nawrocki's 49.7%.
PKW has not yet published an official result, but it has finished counting all the votes. Local media have extrapolated the data to show that Nawrocki won 50.9% of the votes ahead of Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski on 49.1%.
The official result is due to be published on Monday morning, the head of the state electoral commission said.
PKW is expected to announce the official result later on Monday morning.
Trzaskowski had already claimed victory after the first exit poll indicated he was the winner.
If confirmed, it's a sensational turnaround from the result of the first exit poll –published immediately after voting ended at 21:00 local time (19:00 GMT) on Sunday – that showed Trzaskowski winning on 50.3% to Nawrocki's 49.7%.
"We won," he said. "We won, although the phrase 'razor's edge' will forever enter the Polish language and politics," he added.
Trzaskowski had claimed victory after the first exit poll, telling his supporters:
"We won, although the phrase 'razor's edge' will forever enter the Polish language and politics."
His wife, Malgorzata, jokingly told the crowd, "I'm close to having a heart attack".
His wife, Malgorzata, jokingly told the crowd, "I'm close to having a heart attack".
Trzaskowski promised to reach out to voters who supported his opponent. I will be a president for all Polish women and men," he said.
Nawrocki, meanwhile, told his supporters after the result of the first exit poll that it was too close to call.
Nawrocki, meanwhile, told his supporters after the result of the first exit poll that it was too close to call.
"Let's not lose hope for this night. We will win during the night, the difference is minimal. I believe that we will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki," he said.
"Let's not lose hope for this night. We will win during the night, the difference is minimal. I believe that we will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki," he said.
Poland's president is a largely ceremonial role with limited influence on foreign policy and defence, but they can veto legislation and Donald Tusk's pro-EU coalition government lacks a big enough parliamentary majority to overturn it.
Presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski claimed an early win but his winning margin is well within the margin of error, one exit poll suggests
The current conservative incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, has used his powers to prevent Prime Minister Tusk delivering key campaign promises including removing political influence from the judiciary and liberalising the country's strict abortion law.
Should Nawrocki become Poland's new president, which looks likely, he is likely to continue to use his presidential power of veto to block Prime Minister Donald Tusk's pro-EU programme.
If Trzaskowski's victory is confirmed that obstacle would be removed and would allow Tusk to cement Poland's place in the European mainstream.
The result would also re-energise Nawrocki's supporters, the national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) opposition, which lost power eighteen months ago, giving them renewed belief they will be able to defeat Tusk's coalition in 2027 parliamentary elections.
However, Tusk also faces opposition from within his own coalition from the conservative Peoples' Party on issues including abortion and legalising civil partnerships.
Nawrocki supports traditional Catholic and family values and is a strong supporter of Polish sovereignty within the EU.
A victory for national conservative Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, would mean continued conflict between the government and president.
He backs continued support for Ukraine, but has said he does not want to see the country joining NATO and the EU during Russia's ongoing aggression.
It would also re-energise PiS, which lost power 18 months ago, giving the party the belief that it can go on to win parliamentary elections in 2027.
Poland's president is a largely ceremonial role with limited influence on foreign policy and defence, but the president can veto legislation. Tusk's pro-EU coalition government lacks a large enough parliamentary majority to overturn it.
Both candidates support continued assistance for neighbouring Ukraine, although Nawrocki has said he opposes its entry into Nato and the EU for now while Russia continues its war of aggression.
The current conservative incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, has used his powers to prevent Prime Minister Tusk delivering key campaign promises, including removing political influence from the judiciary and liberalising the country's strict abortion law.
Both men differ over their approach to the EU. Trzaskowski, a former Europe minister, supports Tusk's vision of a Poland at the heart of the European mainstream, influencing decisions through strong relations with Germany and France.
Both presidential candidates support continued assistance for neighbouring Ukraine, but they differ over their approach to the EU. Trzaskowski, a former Europe minister, supports Tusk's vision of a Poland at the heart of the European mainstream, influencing decisions through strong relations with Germany and France.
A deputy leader of Tusk's Civic Platform, he has served as Warsaw mayor since 2018.
Nawrocki, 42, supports a strong sovereign Poland and does not want the country to cede any more powers to Brussels. He opposes the EU's climate and migration policies.
He's the son of a famous Polish jazz pianist, speaks several languages and is viewed by some voters as a member of the country's liberal elite who is out of touch with ordinary Poles.
According to the CBOS polling company, Trzaskowski's typical voter is aged 30-40 years old, is relatively well off with left-liberal views and is open to LGBTQ+ and migrants' rights. They tend to live in large cities and have positive views of the EU.
Some voters said he tried to "artificially" present himself as a candidate who values patriotism. During the campaign, he has taken a much tougher line against illegal migration, something Tusk started to do before winning power in 2023 and he has volunteered to do basic military training.
Nawrocki, 42, supports a strong sovereign Poland and does not want the country to cede any more powers to Brussels. He opposes the EU's climate and migration policies. He's a conservative Catholic that prioritises traditional family values.
He was relatively unknown nationally before he was selected by opposition party PiS to be their "unofficial" candidate.
He was relatively unknown nationally before he was selected by opposition party PiS to be their "unofficial" candidate.
A keen amateur boxer and footballer, he often posted images of himself working out, allowing PiS to present him as a strong candidate who would stand up for ordinary Poles and the country's national interests.
A keen amateur boxer and footballer, he often posts images of himself working out. PiS presented him as a strong candidate who would stand up for ordinary Poles and the country's national interests.
A fan of President Donald Trump, he flew to Washington during the campaign for an extremely brief meeting to get a thumbs-up photo of himself with the American president in the Oval Office.
A fan of President Donald Trump, he flew to Washington during the Polish election campaign for an extremely brief meeting – and to get a thumbs-up photo of himself with Trump in the Oval Office.
During the campaign he was attacked by the government and media for being morally unfit to be the country's president, but the allegations did not diminish his support during the last week of campaigning.
During a presidential debate, Nawrocki said that he, like most Poles, owned one apartment. That turned out to be a lie.
Nawrocki was accused of taking advantage of a vulnerable senior citizen to acquire his council flat at a huge discount in exchange for promises of care that were unfulfilled. Following the scandal, Nawrocki said he would donate the flat to charity but always denied the accusation.
Polish news website Onet.pl accused Nawrocki of helping to arrange sex workers for guests at the luxury Grand Hotel in the Baltic seaside resort of Sopot when he worked there as a security guard.
The story was based on anonymous sources, but Onet.pl said the witnesses had sworn they would repeat the allegations under oath in court. Nawrocki called the story a pack of lies and said he would sue the website.
His opponents portrayed him as a football hooligan who admired gangsters and neo-Nazi ultras. Nawrocki did not deny taking part in hooligan brawls as a younger man, calling them "noble fights". He has also said these allegations were an attempt to smear his reputation.
Some Nawrocki voters told me they did not believe certain stories about him, saying they were inventions of the mainstream Trzaskowski-supporting media.
