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Was Iran months away from producing a nuclear bomb? Was Iran months away from producing a nuclear bomb?
(5 days later)
Iran insists its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful and that it enriches uranium to produce fuel for power plants like Bushehr Ros Atkins on… How close Is Iran to a nuclear weapon?
Israel has struck dozens of targets across Iran, damaging the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and assassinating top military commanders and nuclear scientists in Tehran. Israel has struck several nuclear facilities in Iran as part of a large-scale air campaign that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said is necessary to "roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival".
After the first wave of attacks on Thursday night, the Iranian foreign minister condemned what he called Israel's "reckless" attacks on his country's "peaceful nuclear facilities". Iran has since launched retaliatory air strikes on Israel. After the first wave of attacks on Friday damaged the Natanz uranium enrichment plant and assassinated leading nuclear scientists, Netanyahu said Israel had acted because "if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time".
Abbas Araghchi said Natanz was operated under the monitoring of the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and that the strikes on the facility risked a "radiological disaster".
However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the operation was necessary to "roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival".
He said Israel had acted because "if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time".
"It could be a year. It could be within a few months," he warned."It could be a year. It could be within a few months," he warned.
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Sunday that Israel had "crossed a new red line in international law" by attacking nuclear sites, and that Iran was launching missiles and drones at Israel in response.
He also insisted that the Iranian nuclear programme was peaceful, and that his country's doctrine was "rooted in our belief in the prohibition and illegitimacy of nuclear weapons".
Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, although it neither confirms nor denies this.Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, although it neither confirms nor denies this.
Is there evidence Iran was working on a nuclear bomb? Is there evidence Iran had a nuclear weapons programme?
The Israeli military said it had accumulated intelligence showing that "concrete progress" had been made "in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb", including a uranium metal core and a neutron source initiator for triggering the nuclear explosion. Netanyahu said Israel "struck at the heart of Iran's weaponization programme" when it targeted Natanz, and that the nuclear scientists it killed were "working on the Iranian bomb".
Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the US-based Arms Control Association, said Israel's prime minister "did not present any clear or compelling evidence that Iran was on the brink of weaponizing". The Israeli military said it had accumulated in recent months intelligence showing that "concrete progress" had been made "in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb", including a uranium metal core and a neutron source initiator for triggering the nuclear explosion.
However, Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the US-based Arms Control Association, told the BBC on Friday that Israel's prime minister "did not present any clear or compelling evidence that Iran was on the brink of weaponizing".
"Iran has been at a near-zero breakout for months," she told the BBC, referring to the time it would take Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one bomb if it chose to do so."Iran has been at a near-zero breakout for months," she told the BBC, referring to the time it would take Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one bomb if it chose to do so.
"Similarly, the assessment that Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon within a few months is not new.""Similarly, the assessment that Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon within a few months is not new."
She said some of Iran's nuclear activities would be applicable to developing a bomb, but US intelligence agencies had assessed that Iran was not engaged in key weaponization work.She said some of Iran's nuclear activities would be applicable to developing a bomb, but US intelligence agencies had assessed that Iran was not engaged in key weaponization work.
This March, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was "at its highest levels" and "unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons".This March, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was "at its highest levels" and "unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons".
But she also said the US intelligence community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003". But Gabbard also said the US intelligence community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003".
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"If Netanyahu was purely motivated by Iran's proliferation risk, Israel would likely have shared that intelligence with the United States and the initial attack would likely have targeted all of Iran's key nuclear facilities," Ms Davenport added."If Netanyahu was purely motivated by Iran's proliferation risk, Israel would likely have shared that intelligence with the United States and the initial attack would likely have targeted all of Iran's key nuclear facilities," Ms Davenport added.
Last week, the IAEA said in its latest quarterly report that Iran had amassed enough uranium enriched up to 60% purity - a short, technical step away from weapons grade, or 90% - to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. That was "a matter of serious concern", given the proliferation risks, it added. When asked by the BBC about Israel's claims on Monday, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, said: "This is their evaluation of the situation. I'm not familiar with the internal reports or information that they may have."
The agency also said it could not provide assurance that the Iranian nuclear programme was exclusively peaceful because Iran was not complying with its investigation into man-made uranium particles discovered by inspectors at three undeclared nuclear sites. However, he noted that the IAEA's latest quarterly report released in late May warned that Iran had amassed enough uranium enriched up to 60% purity - a short, technical step away from weapons grade, or 90% - to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. That was "a source of legitimate concern", he said.
Latest updates: Iran retaliates with missile attacks on Israel, as Netanyahu urges Iranians to stand up to regime Grossi also said the agency could not provide assurance that the Iranian nuclear programme was exclusively peaceful because Iran was not complying with its investigation into man-made uranium particles discovered by inspectors at three undeclared nuclear sites.
Israel's endgame may be regime change in Iran - but it's a gamble "At the same time, we recall that whereas until the early 2000s there used to be... a structured and systematic effort in the direction of a nuclear device, that is not the case now," he added.
Iran is reeling from Israel's unprecedented attack - and it is only the start
Who were the Iranian commanders killed in Israel's attack
What do we know about Iran's nuclear programme?What do we know about Iran's nuclear programme?
Iran has always said that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful and that it has never sought to develop a nuclear weapon.Iran has always said that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful and that it has never sought to develop a nuclear weapon.
However, a decade-long investigation by the IAEA found evidence that Iran conducted "a range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device" from the late 1980s until 2003, when projects under what was known as "Project Amad" were halted.However, a decade-long investigation by the IAEA found evidence that Iran conducted "a range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device" from the late 1980s until 2003, when projects under what was known as "Project Amad" were halted.
Iran continued with some activities until 2009 - when Western powers revealed the construction of the Fordo underground enrichment facility - but after that there were "no credible indications" of weapons development, the agency concluded.Iran continued with some activities until 2009 - when Western powers revealed the construction of the Fordo underground enrichment facility - but after that there were "no credible indications" of weapons development, the agency concluded.
In 2015, Iran agreed a deal with six world powers under which it accepted restrictions on its nuclear activities and allowed rigorous monitoring by the IAEA's inspectors in return for relief from crippling sanctions.In 2015, Iran agreed a deal with six world powers under which it accepted restrictions on its nuclear activities and allowed rigorous monitoring by the IAEA's inspectors in return for relief from crippling sanctions.
Key limits covered its production of enriched uranium, which is used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons. Key limits covered its production of enriched uranium, which is used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons. They included not enriching uranium above 3.67% purity, operating only first-generation centrifuges, which spin uranium hexafluoride gas at extremely high speeds, as well as ceasing enrichment at the underground Fordo facility.
But US President Donald Trump abandoned the deal during his first term in 2018, saying it did too little to stop a pathway to a bomb, and reinstated US sanctions.But US President Donald Trump abandoned the deal during his first term in 2018, saying it did too little to stop a pathway to a bomb, and reinstated US sanctions.
Iran retaliated by increasingly breaching the restrictions - particularly those relating to enrichment. Iran retaliated by increasingly breaching the restrictions - particularly those relating to enrichment. As well as producing 60%-enriched uranium, it used more advanced centrifuges and resumed enrichment at Fordo.
Under the nuclear deal, no enrichment was permitted at Fordo for 15 years. However, in 2021 Iran resumed enriching uranium to 20% purity. The day before Israel launched its air campaign, the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.
On Thursday, the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. Iran said it would respond to the resolution by setting up a new uranium enrichment facility at a "secure location" and by replacing first-generation centrifuges at Fordo with sixth-generation machines.
Iran said it would respond to the resolution by setting up a new uranium enrichment facility at a "secure location" and by replacing first-generation centrifuges used to enrich uranium with more advanced, sixth-generation machines at the Fordo enrichment plant. Some of Israel's early strikes on Tehran targeted nuclear scientists and military commanders
Israeli strikes in Tehran on Thursday night targeted nuclear scientists and military commanders
What damage has Israel done to Iran's nuclear infrastructure?What damage has Israel done to Iran's nuclear infrastructure?
The Israeli military said on Friday that its first round of air strikes damaged the underground centrifuge hall at Natanz, as well as critical infrastructure that enabled the site to operate. The Israeli military said on Friday that its first round of air strikes damaged the underground centrifuge hall at Natanz, as well as critical infrastructure that enabled the site to operate, without providing any evidence.
The IAEA's director general, Rafael Grossi, told the UN Security Council that the above-ground pilot fuel enrichment plant (PFEP) and electricity infrastructure at Natanz was destroyed. There was no indication of a physical attack on the underground hall, but that the loss of power may have damaged the centrifuges there, he added. Rafael Grossi said the attack destroyed the above-ground part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), where cascades of centrifuges were producing 60% enriched uranium, and electricity infrastructure at the site.
The US-based Institute for Science and International Security said the destruction of the PFEP was significant because the facility had been used to produced 60%-enriched uranium and also to develop advanced centrifuges. While there was no sign of a physical attack on the underground cascade hall containing part of the PFEP and the main Fuel Enrichment Plant, he added, the damage to the electrical infrastructure was likely to have had a significant impact there.
Ms Davenport also said the strikes on Natanz would increase Iran's "breakout time", but that it was too soon to assess the full impact. "Our assessment is that with this sudden loss of external power, in great probability the centrifuges have been severely damaged, if not destroyed altogether," he told the BBC. "There has been damage inside. There has not been a direct kinetic destruction of it."
"We will not have a clear picture of how quickly Iran could resume operations there or if Iran was able to divert uranium until the IAEA can access the site," she explained. Centrifuges are fragile, finely balanced machines. A small problem such as a power cut can send them spinning out of control, with parts smashing into each other and damaging a whole cascade.
Later on Friday, Iran informed the IAEA that Israel had attacked the Fordo enrichment plant and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. Grossi also said there was radiological and chemical contamination at the site, but that the level of radioactivity outside had remained unchanged and at normal levels. The risk of radiation there - primarily consisting of alpha particles - could effectively be managed with appropriate protective measures, such as respirators, he added.
The Israeli military said a strike in Isfahan had "dismantled a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for reconverting enriched uranium, laboratories, and additional infrastructure". The IAEA chief said four buildings were destroyed in a separate attack on Friday on the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre - the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and a facility to convert uranium hexafluoride to uranium metal, which was under construction.
"So long as Fordo remains operational, Iran still poses a near-term proliferation risk. Tehran has the option to ratchet up enrichment to weapons grade levels at the site or divert uranium to an undeclared location," Ms Davenport said. As at Natanz, off-site radiation levels remain unchanged, he added.
Israel's prime minister also said the operation would continue for "as many days as it takes to remove this threat". The Israeli military said that the Isfahan strike "dismantled a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for reconverting enriched uranium, laboratories, and additional infrastructure".
Regarding Isfahan, Grossi told the BBC that there were "underground spaces as well, which do not seem to have been affected".
And at the Fordo plant, he said there was "very limited if any damage registered".
Iran's semi-official Isna news agency quoted a spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) as saying on Saturday that there was "limited damage to some areas" at Fordo following an Israeli attack.
However, the Israeli military has not confirmed carrying out any strikes there.
On Wednesday, the IAEA reported that it had received information that two centrifuge production facilities, the TESA Karaj workshop and the Tehran Research Centre, were hit.
"At the Tehran site, one building was hit where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested. At Karaj, two buildings were destroyed where different centrifuge components were manufactured," it said.
The Israeli military said its fighter jets struck centrifuge production sites, as well as "research and development sites of the Iranian regime's nuclear weapons development project".
Ms Davenport said the strikes on Natanz would increase Iran's "breakout time", but that "we will not have a clear picture of how quickly Iran could resume operations there or if Iran was able to divert uranium until the IAEA can access the site."
She also expected Fordo to be targeted if Israel wanted to set back Iran's nuclear programme.
"So long as Fordo remains operational, Iran still poses a near-term proliferation risk. Tehran has the option to ratchet up enrichment to weapons grade levels at the site or divert uranium to an undeclared location," she explained.
However, Fordo was built deep inside a mountain to protect it from air strikes and only the US has conventional "bunker-buster" bombs capable of destroying it.
Israel's prime minister has said the operation will continue for "as many days as it takes to remove this threat".
But that is an unrealistic goal, according to Ms Davenport.But that is an unrealistic goal, according to Ms Davenport.
"Strikes can destroy facilities and target scientists but cannot erase Iran's nuclear knowledge. Iran can rebuild, and more quickly now than in the past due to its advances in uranium enrichment," she said."Strikes can destroy facilities and target scientists but cannot erase Iran's nuclear knowledge. Iran can rebuild, and more quickly now than in the past due to its advances in uranium enrichment," she said.