This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . The next check for changes will be

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/22/oil-prices-expected-to-rise-after-us-attack-on-iran

The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Oil prices expected to rise after US attack on Iran Price of oil could spike after Iran’s parliament votes to close key shipping route
(about 3 hours later)
Strikes stoke fears of escalating regional conflict that could shut down vital strait of Hormuz shipping route Move could cause a global recession and comes in response to the US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites
Oil prices are expected to rise as the trading week starts, after the US attack on Iran stoked fears of an escalating regional conflict that could shut down the vital strait of Hormuz shipping route. Middle East crisis – latest updates
Iran’s parliament has voted to shut down the vital Hormuz shipping channel in retaliation against Donald Trump’s attack on the country, prompting fears of a sharp spike in oil prices that could cause a global recession.
A barrel of Brent crude was selling for about $77 on Friday, having risen by more than 10% since mid-June when Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear sites prompted missile strikes from Tehran against Tel Aviv.A barrel of Brent crude was selling for about $77 on Friday, having risen by more than 10% since mid-June when Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear sites prompted missile strikes from Tehran against Tel Aviv.
Donald Trump’s decision to follow Israel in launching a US attack on Iran over the weekend could drive prices up by a further $5 when markets open, according to forecasts from oil market analysts. But Trump’s decision to follow Israel by launching a US attack on Iran has set off a chain of events that analysts warned could drive prices up much further when markets open at 11pm UK time on Sunday.
Trading for the week begins at 11pm UK time on Sunday. A fifth of the world’s oil consumption flows through the strait of Hormuz, which is a gateway out of the Persian Gulf.
“An oil price jump is expected,” said Jorge Leon, the head of geopolitical analysis at the energy intelligence firm Rystad and a former official at Opec, the group of major oil-producing nations. The vote, reported by Reuters, is not binding because the final decision rests with Iran’s supreme national security council. But analysts were already predicting an spike of up to $5 before the result of the vote was known.
“In an extreme scenario where Iran responds with direct strikes or targets regional oil infrastructure, oil prices will surge sharply. Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium.” “An oil price jump is expected,” said Jorge León, the head of geopolitical analysis at the energy intelligence firm Rystad and a former official at Opec, the group of major oil-producing nations. “In an extreme scenario where Iran responds with direct strikes or targets regional oil infrastructure, oil prices will surge sharply. Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium.”
Brent crude, the traditional benchmark global oil price, could gain $3 to $5 per barrel when markets open, Ole Hvalbye, an SEB analyst, said in a note. Brent crude, the traditional benchmark global oil price, could gain $3 to $5 a barrel when markets open, Ole Hvalbye, an SEB analyst, said in a note.
The Wall Street bank JP Morgan has previously forecast that the oil price could rise as high as $130 in the event that a sustained Middle East conflict closes the strait of Hormuz. JP Morgan has previously forecast that the oil price could rise as high as $130 in the event that a sustained Middle East conflict closes the strait of Hormuz for an extended period.
Iranian officials have previously threatened to block the Strait, the conduit for a fifth of global oil consumption, if Tehran’s interests are threatened. Iranian officials have said they would block the strait if Tehran’s interests were threatened.
Any such retaliation could have huge knock-on effects for the global economy, with the resulting oil price shock risking a period of high inflation, as motorists pay more for petrol and the cost of transporting goods soars. A prolonged closure could have huge knock-on effects for the global economy. An oil price shock would risk a period of high inflation, as motorists pay more for petrol and the cost of transporting goods soars.
Brent crude settled at $77.01 a barrel on Friday, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark was at $73.84.
Sign up to Business TodaySign up to Business Today
Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning
after newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion
Some analysts played down the risk of long-term disruption to shipping routes, pointing out that most of Iran’s oil exports to China pass through the strait of Hormuz. Brent crude settled at $77.01 a barrel on Friday, while the US West Texas Intermediate benchmark was at $73.84.
If oil prices were to rise to $130, that would exceed levels reached in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts have played down the risk of long-term disruption to shipping routes, pointing out that most of Iran’s oil exports to China pass through the strait of Hormuz.
The all-time high for Brent crude is $147.50, set in July 2008 just before the global financial crisis sent prices plunging. If oil prices were to rise to $130, that would exceed levels reached in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The all-time high for Brent crude is $147.50, set in July 2008 just before the global financial crisis sent prices plunging.