The strait of Hormuz: how could Iran close it and why does it matter to global trade?
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Version 0 of 1. Iran’s parliament approved a measure to close the vital global trade route, through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through daily Trump floats regime change in Iran – follow it live President Donald Trump’s unprecedented decision to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites has deepened fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East. Joining Israel in the biggest western military action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution, the world is now bracing for Iran’s response. One way Iran could retaliate, analysts say, is to close off the strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route, through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply, 20m barrels, and much of its liquefied gas, passes each day. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait, which would restrict trade and affect global oil prices, but has never followed through on the threat. What is the strait of Hormuz? Among the world’s most important oil chokepoints, the strait of Hormuz is geo-strategically important to the United States and beyond, as the strength of the global economy is heavily dependent on the flow of oil. The strait lies between Oman and Iran and links the Gulf to the north with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond. It is 33km wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lanes just 3km wide in either direction. Why is it so important? About one-fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the strait. Between the start of 2022 and last month, approximately 17.8m to 20.8m barrels of crude, condensate, and fuels flowed through the strait daily, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) – Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq – export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia. The US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, is tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the area. What has Iran said about the strait of Hormuz? Iran’s Press TV reported at the weekend that the Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the strait of Hormuz, but ultimately the decision will come down to Iran’s top leaders. On Sunday Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, hinted at what could be an open-ended retaliation when he said that Trump’s decision to bomb Iran “will have everlasting consequences”. In his first comments since the US joined Israel’s war on his country, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Israel had made a “grave mistake” and “must be punished”, but did not make any specific reference to the strait of Hormuz. How could Iran close it? Any Iranian attempt to close the strait would almost certainly involve Tehran trying to mine the two 3km wide shipping lanes with munitions ready to explode if they detect passing traffic. Sea mines are feared, and Iran is thought to possess several thousand, including the Chinese made EM-52, which launches a rocket from the seabed if it detects a target, as well as other mines that can lie moored in the water. However, a challenge for Tehran would be in successfully laying the weapons, as the exercise would have to be done relatively quickly and would rely on submarines – three larger Russian-made Kilo class and a fleet of midget Ghadir class submarines. Sea mining could be supported by a combination of anti-ship batteries from the Iranian coast, small fast patrol boats as well as air and sea drones, though any shore-based capability is likely to be promptly attacked by Israel and probably the US. Clearing mines is a complex task, ideally handled in a relatively uncontested environment. Two US warships, the USS Tripoli and USS Princeton, were damaged by Iraqi mines in the 1991 Gulf war, but the US has considerable military assets in the region. Nick Childs, an analyst with the International Institute Strategic Studies, said Iran could “cause very significant disruption and also potentially seriously hazard US and other naval units” seeking to keep the waterway open but “for these reasons, a concerted effort by Iran to close the strait of Hormuz would likely provoke a considerable and comprehensive US military response”. What would happen if it was closed? Closing the strait has the advantage of being a means to impose a direct cost on Trump, as it would trigger an oil price spike with a near immediate inflationary effect in the US and across the globe. But it would also be an act of dramatic economic self-harm. Iranian oil uses the same gateway, and shutting Hormuz risks bringing Gulf Arab states, which have been highly critical of the Israeli attack, into the war to safeguard their own interests. In particular, closing the strait would significantly harm China. The world’s second-largest economy buys almost 90% of Iran’s oil exports, which are subject to international sanctions. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has called on China to help stop Iran from closing it, telling Fox news: “I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the strait of Hormuz for their oil.” “If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake,” he added. “It’s economic suicide for them if they do it.” There are already reports that some supertankers have U-turned in the strategic waterway following the US strikes. |