Early tallies in Tasmania election point to Liberal gains
Tasmanian election: Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff declares victory as Labor loses ground after forcing early poll
(about 11 hours later)
Support appears to grow for incumbent government in election triggered by no-confidence vote
Support grows for incumbent government in election triggered by no-confidence vote
Early voting counts in Tasmania’s election points to the Liberals being in the box seat to rule, with the incumbent government’s vote rising and Labor’s collapsing.
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Saturday’s vote, triggered when the minority Liberal premier, Jeremy Rockliff, lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island’s second in 16 months.
Tasmania faces a period of political talks after a snap election delivered another hung parliament and more seats to the Liberals than Labor.
All opinion polls have pointed towards another hung parliament, with neither of the major parties gaining enough support to reach the 18-seat mark required for a majority.
The Liberal premier, Jeremy Rockliff, declared victory on Saturday night after his party secured 14 seats to Labor’s nine, both short of the 18 required for a majority.
At 8pm (AEDT) and with 14% of the vote counted, early tallies showed a 2.4% swing toward the Liberals and a 3.9% swing away from Labor.
Rockliff said he would ask the governor to recommission his government, noting a roughly 3% swing to the Liberals.
The Liberals held 14 seats coming into the poll, with Labor on 10, the Greens five and the remaining six either independents or other parties.
However, the Labor leader, Dean Winter, whose party experienced its worst-ever result in Tasmania with just 26% of the primary vote, didn’t concede defeat.
The election analyst Casey Briggs said it was unclear if the Liberals would end the election with more than 14 seats.
He appeared to leave the door open to governing, if the Liberals couldn’t make it work.
“The Liberal party is looking well-placed to retain virtually all of their seats,” Briggs said. “They may even gain, as we have been talking about, a fourth in Braddon while Labor is struggling to keep its 10.”
“The result of this election is that the Liberals will have the most seats, but it is uncertain as to how they will achieve a majority,” Winter said. “Another election is not an option, which means we need to figure this out.”
Labor has flagged trying to govern in minority even if it finishes with fewer seats than the Liberals.
The Greens retained at least five seats, while there are three independents, with counting potentially extending for weeks to determine four undecided seats.
Rockliff and the Labor leader, Dean Winter, have both ruled out doing a formal deal with the Greens to govern.
Rockliff would need to work with left-leaning independent crossbenchers to govern.
However, Winter has kept the door ajar for a no-strings-attached informal supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens.
Independents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who both voted for the June no-confidence motion against Rockliff that triggered the election, have been returned.
“In terms of who wins the most seats, we’re in a very different political environment than we have been a number of elections ago,” the Labor upper house MP Sarah Lovell told the ABC. “I don’t know that it’s fair to say that the party with the most seats automatically gets to claim victory.”
Johnston urged the next premier to be more collaborative and said she wouldn’t enter into a formal deal for confidence and supply with either major party.
The Liberal incumbent MP Eric Abetz said the party with more seats should get first crack at governing.
“They need to negotiate and respect the views of parliament,” she said.
“I have every expectation that at the end of tonight the Liberal party will be holding more seats than the Labor party,” he said.
Anti-salmon activist and independent Peter George has been elected after a strong campaign in the federal election.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have been in minority since 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench.
The state Greens leader, Rosalie Woodruff, has called on Winter to “have a conversation” about forming an alliance with her party.
Johnston and fellow independent Craig Garland, who are left-leaning and voted for the no-confidence motion against Rockliff, are likely to be returned.
However, Winter has repeatedly ruled out doing a deal with the Greens and on Saturday night also said he wouldn’t “be trading away any of Labor’s policies or our values”.
It could take weeks for the final count to be completed, with the last postal votes not expected to arrive until the end of July.
The drawn-out post-election scenario, just 16 months after the previous poll, will further delay the parliamentary approval process for a new $945m stadium in Hobart.
Election eve polling by YouGov had the Liberals (31%) and Labor (30%) neck and neck, followed by backing for independents (20%) and the Greens (16%).
The venue, a condition of Tasmania’s AFL licence, is supported by the Liberals and Labor but opposed by the Greens, Garland, Johnston and Mr George.
There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13bn by 2028.
The new parliament will be very similar to the previous one, which included 14 Liberals, 10 Labor MPs, five Greens, five independents and one Jacqui Lambie Network member.
The no-confidence motion, put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbenchers, was critical of the budget and a bungled ferry delivery.
Another key issue has been plans for a $945m Hobart stadium, which is backed by the Liberals and Labor but opposed by the Greens and several crossbenchers.
