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| The Nationals’ net zero bomb threatens to fracture the Liberals’ decades-old alliance – permanently | |
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| In the last of this four-part series, we explore how the Coalition partners’ opposing policies over the climate crisis might leave Anthony Albanese the ultimate victor | In the last of this four-part series, we explore how the Coalition partners’ opposing policies over the climate crisis might leave Anthony Albanese the ultimate victor |
| Part one: ‘A very divisive period’: the challenges facing a Liberal party in existential crisis | Part one: ‘A very divisive period’: the challenges facing a Liberal party in existential crisis |
| Part two: Liberal party hardliners are on the back foot – but while Tony Abbott is around, the right will fight | Part two: Liberal party hardliners are on the back foot – but while Tony Abbott is around, the right will fight |
| Part three: ‘It’s a takeover’: the South Australian power player reshaping the state Liberal party | Part three: ‘It’s a takeover’: the South Australian power player reshaping the state Liberal party |
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| A handful of moderate Liberal MPs decided that enough was enough. | A handful of moderate Liberal MPs decided that enough was enough. |
| As the party debated whether to reunite the Coalition after a brief but damaging split with the Nationals in mid-May, the MPs drew a line in the sand. | As the party debated whether to reunite the Coalition after a brief but damaging split with the Nationals in mid-May, the MPs drew a line in the sand. |
| While the Nationals insisted on four demands for reunification – on nuclear power, supermarket break-up powers, regional communications and a $20bn infrastructure fund – for some Liberals, abandoning policies for net zero carbon emissions by 2050 would be a step too far. | While the Nationals insisted on four demands for reunification – on nuclear power, supermarket break-up powers, regional communications and a $20bn infrastructure fund – for some Liberals, abandoning policies for net zero carbon emissions by 2050 would be a step too far. |
| MPs who took part in a rush of party room debates in the tumultuous 48 hours point to the intervention of New South Wales moderate Dave Sharma, who insisted the Liberals could never be credible with mainstream voters if they abandoned such a fundamental element of climate policy. Others, including Zoe McKenzie, Maria Kovacic and Andrew Bragg, spoke privately and publicly in favour of holding firm. | MPs who took part in a rush of party room debates in the tumultuous 48 hours point to the intervention of New South Wales moderate Dave Sharma, who insisted the Liberals could never be credible with mainstream voters if they abandoned such a fundamental element of climate policy. Others, including Zoe McKenzie, Maria Kovacic and Andrew Bragg, spoke privately and publicly in favour of holding firm. |
| “The view was we could not hide from serious climate policies and we could no longer be seen as accepting climate deniers,” one Liberal MP says, speaking anonymously about the closed-door talks. | “The view was we could not hide from serious climate policies and we could no longer be seen as accepting climate deniers,” one Liberal MP says, speaking anonymously about the closed-door talks. |
| “The Liberal party moved too far from its core values because we were dictated to by the Nationals. Peter Dutton let it happen and they’re trying to do it again now on net zero.” | “The Liberal party moved too far from its core values because we were dictated to by the Nationals. Peter Dutton let it happen and they’re trying to do it again now on net zero.” |
| But the agreement between the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, and his Liberal counterpart, Sussan Ley, to rejoin forces, cobbled together 48 hours after the split, did not settle the question of net zero – leaving it as one of the biggest questions facing the Coalition this term. | But the agreement between the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, and his Liberal counterpart, Sussan Ley, to rejoin forces, cobbled together 48 hours after the split, did not settle the question of net zero – leaving it as one of the biggest questions facing the Coalition this term. |
| In the final part of a series on the future of the Liberal party, Guardian Australia spoke with insiders about the latest conflict in the Coalition’s climate wars, and how it threatens to permanently fracture the decades-old alliance. | In the final part of a series on the future of the Liberal party, Guardian Australia spoke with insiders about the latest conflict in the Coalition’s climate wars, and how it threatens to permanently fracture the decades-old alliance. |
| ‘Lunatic crusade’ | ‘Lunatic crusade’ |
| Opponents of net zero are not wasting any time. | Opponents of net zero are not wasting any time. |
| The Nationals have launched their own review, led by dogged climate critic Matt Canavan and the party strategist turned senator Ross Cadell. Outspoken former leader Barnaby Joyce has promised a private member’s bill to end “the lunatic crusade” of net zero when parliament returns this week. | The Nationals have launched their own review, led by dogged climate critic Matt Canavan and the party strategist turned senator Ross Cadell. Outspoken former leader Barnaby Joyce has promised a private member’s bill to end “the lunatic crusade” of net zero when parliament returns this week. |
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| It was Joyce who initially signed the party up in the first place, negotiating with Scott Morrison’s Liberals back in 2021 in exchange for an extra spot in cabinet. The Queensland Liberal-National MP Garth Hamilton calls net zero a “blank cheque” for economic decline, while Andrew Hastie, considered a potential future Liberal leader, says he wants out of the “straitjacket” plan. | It was Joyce who initially signed the party up in the first place, negotiating with Scott Morrison’s Liberals back in 2021 in exchange for an extra spot in cabinet. The Queensland Liberal-National MP Garth Hamilton calls net zero a “blank cheque” for economic decline, while Andrew Hastie, considered a potential future Liberal leader, says he wants out of the “straitjacket” plan. |
| One close observer of the Nationals’ dynamics says if a vote on net zero took place in Canberra this week, opposition to the policy would be locked in 13 votes to six. That result would be a mirror image of Canavan’s leadership challenge to Littleproud in the days after the election, when he ran on an anti-net zero platform. | One close observer of the Nationals’ dynamics says if a vote on net zero took place in Canberra this week, opposition to the policy would be locked in 13 votes to six. That result would be a mirror image of Canavan’s leadership challenge to Littleproud in the days after the election, when he ran on an anti-net zero platform. |
| Despite his two-to-one loss, Canavan claims the party’s policy review as a win. He argues the Nationals were bullied into signing on five years ago on the basis that it had popular support in the polls. | Despite his two-to-one loss, Canavan claims the party’s policy review as a win. He argues the Nationals were bullied into signing on five years ago on the basis that it had popular support in the polls. |
| “This would be the same polling that sent us shockingly astray in the recent election,” Canavan said in May. He did not respond to requests for comment for this story. Colleagues say Canavan shares anti-net zero content in a party chat on the messaging app Signal “at all hours of the day and night”. | “This would be the same polling that sent us shockingly astray in the recent election,” Canavan said in May. He did not respond to requests for comment for this story. Colleagues say Canavan shares anti-net zero content in a party chat on the messaging app Signal “at all hours of the day and night”. |
| There is widespread anger at the Nationals within senior ranks of the Coalition. Liberal MPs – reduced to a rump in metropolitan seats in part because Labor successfully tied them to Joyce and Canavan during successive campaigns – fear another round of the climate wars could kill the party. | There is widespread anger at the Nationals within senior ranks of the Coalition. Liberal MPs – reduced to a rump in metropolitan seats in part because Labor successfully tied them to Joyce and Canavan during successive campaigns – fear another round of the climate wars could kill the party. |
| The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is scathing, calling the Coalition “hopelessly divided” over something the rest of the world agrees on. “These Coalition parties, the Liberals and Nationals, learned absolutely nothing on 3 May,” he says. | The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is scathing, calling the Coalition “hopelessly divided” over something the rest of the world agrees on. “These Coalition parties, the Liberals and Nationals, learned absolutely nothing on 3 May,” he says. |
| In her first press conference as opposition leader, Ley was asked if she was abandoning her support for net zero. A former environment minister, she has previously talked up the economic opportunities of net zero and insisted she wanted to get there “as quickly as possible”. As leader, she said the Coalition was committed to the renewables transition but stopped short of endorsing net zero, again. | In her first press conference as opposition leader, Ley was asked if she was abandoning her support for net zero. A former environment minister, she has previously talked up the economic opportunities of net zero and insisted she wanted to get there “as quickly as possible”. As leader, she said the Coalition was committed to the renewables transition but stopped short of endorsing net zero, again. |
| “No policies have been adopted or walked away from at this time,” Ley said. | “No policies have been adopted or walked away from at this time,” Ley said. |
| Bad blood | Bad blood |
| After a historic thumping at the election, few in the Coalition were in good spirits as they trudged back to Canberra to start another term in opposition. After days of threats about breaking up the Coalition, the Nationals, led in part by the Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, pushed over the precipice. | After a historic thumping at the election, few in the Coalition were in good spirits as they trudged back to Canberra to start another term in opposition. After days of threats about breaking up the Coalition, the Nationals, led in part by the Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, pushed over the precipice. |
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| Bad blood lingered from the high-profile defection of the Country Liberal Northern Territory senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price from the Nationals to the Liberal party room, part of a plan for her to run for the deputy leadership under Angus Taylor. | Bad blood lingered from the high-profile defection of the Country Liberal Northern Territory senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price from the Nationals to the Liberal party room, part of a plan for her to run for the deputy leadership under Angus Taylor. |
| Senior Nationals always expected Price to one day switch to the Liberals and seek a lower house seat in pursuit of her ambition to eventually become prime minister. But the timing and the nature of the political betrayal incensed her former Nationals colleagues, sending them into what one Liberal describes as an “emotional rage”. | Senior Nationals always expected Price to one day switch to the Liberals and seek a lower house seat in pursuit of her ambition to eventually become prime minister. But the timing and the nature of the political betrayal incensed her former Nationals colleagues, sending them into what one Liberal describes as an “emotional rage”. |
| Senior Nationals were given roughly an hour’s notice before Price issued a statement on the afternoon of 8 May confirming the move to her “natural home”, the Liberal party. Coalition colleagues quickly ascertained the plot had been in the works for weeks, engineered in part by the former prime minister Tony Abbott. | Senior Nationals were given roughly an hour’s notice before Price issued a statement on the afternoon of 8 May confirming the move to her “natural home”, the Liberal party. Coalition colleagues quickly ascertained the plot had been in the works for weeks, engineered in part by the former prime minister Tony Abbott. |
| Guardian Australia has been told the failed play damaged friendships between Price and McKenzie, who serve in the upper house together, as well as between McKenzie and frontbencher James Paterson. The Nationals have just four senators in the new parliament. | Guardian Australia has been told the failed play damaged friendships between Price and McKenzie, who serve in the upper house together, as well as between McKenzie and frontbencher James Paterson. The Nationals have just four senators in the new parliament. |
| Price is a favourite with the section of the Coalition closely tied to Sky News After Dark commentators on News Corp’s network. Her high-profile role during the voice to parliament referendum and her no-apologies brand of rightwing politics lights up the Sky audience. One Nationals member says the network’s hosts road test attack lines like a political party, sticking with two or three key messages that resonate with their loyal audience. | Price is a favourite with the section of the Coalition closely tied to Sky News After Dark commentators on News Corp’s network. Her high-profile role during the voice to parliament referendum and her no-apologies brand of rightwing politics lights up the Sky audience. One Nationals member says the network’s hosts road test attack lines like a political party, sticking with two or three key messages that resonate with their loyal audience. |
| But after two losses to Labor and the messy years of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government, some within the Coalition believe Sky is a habit Liberals and Nationals need to kick. Internally, it is viewed as an outlet to speak to other members of parliament and to practise speaking on broadcast TV. | But after two losses to Labor and the messy years of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government, some within the Coalition believe Sky is a habit Liberals and Nationals need to kick. Internally, it is viewed as an outlet to speak to other members of parliament and to practise speaking on broadcast TV. |
| Former Abbott strategist Peta Credlin, the network’s marquee presenter, has campaigned against net zero and urged the Coalition to move further to the right following one of its worst-ever election defeats. “The venn diagram of Sky viewers and Nationals opposing net zero is a circle. It is the same people,” a Nationals insider says. | Former Abbott strategist Peta Credlin, the network’s marquee presenter, has campaigned against net zero and urged the Coalition to move further to the right following one of its worst-ever election defeats. “The venn diagram of Sky viewers and Nationals opposing net zero is a circle. It is the same people,” a Nationals insider says. |
| A bomb set to go off | A bomb set to go off |
| The Nationals will thrash out their position on net zero in a meeting of MPs set for the middle of next month. Ley has ordered two reviews for the Liberals – one on the election loss and the other into the party’s future, including branch structures and membership base. | The Nationals will thrash out their position on net zero in a meeting of MPs set for the middle of next month. Ley has ordered two reviews for the Liberals – one on the election loss and the other into the party’s future, including branch structures and membership base. |
| The election postmortem, led by party elders Pru Goward and Nick Minchin, could speak to the net zero problem, but two diametrically opposed policies from the Liberals and the Nationals will set up an inevitable clash before the next election. | The election postmortem, led by party elders Pru Goward and Nick Minchin, could speak to the net zero problem, but two diametrically opposed policies from the Liberals and the Nationals will set up an inevitable clash before the next election. |
| The former deputy prime minister Michael McCormack, who insists on speaking to journalists on the record, says the Nationals’ original support for net zero came during China’s campaign of economic coercion against Australia and amid significant anxiety among exporters. European trade deals required net zero policies to be in place. | The former deputy prime minister Michael McCormack, who insists on speaking to journalists on the record, says the Nationals’ original support for net zero came during China’s campaign of economic coercion against Australia and amid significant anxiety among exporters. European trade deals required net zero policies to be in place. |
| “The world is in a very different place now,” McCormack says. “America has made its view clear, and other countries are following suit. Opposition to renewables infrastructure in regional communities is real and you can’t come to Canberra and argue against the views of your electorate.” | “The world is in a very different place now,” McCormack says. “America has made its view clear, and other countries are following suit. Opposition to renewables infrastructure in regional communities is real and you can’t come to Canberra and argue against the views of your electorate.” |
| Labor is watching closely. As it pushes ahead with the transition to renewable energy and talks up Australia’s commitment to the Paris climate agreement, there is political opportunity in the Coalition’s dysfunction. | Labor is watching closely. As it pushes ahead with the transition to renewable energy and talks up Australia’s commitment to the Paris climate agreement, there is political opportunity in the Coalition’s dysfunction. |
| An observer who lived through the first two decades of Australia’s climate wars says Anthony Albanese could be the ultimate winner from any move to ditch net zero. | An observer who lived through the first two decades of Australia’s climate wars says Anthony Albanese could be the ultimate winner from any move to ditch net zero. |
| “If he’s smart, Albanese might choose to leave Barnaby’s private members sitting on the notice paper so it stirs fights between the Liberals and the Nats for six months. Then he could, at a time of maximum political convenience, bring it on for debate,” they say. | “If he’s smart, Albanese might choose to leave Barnaby’s private members sitting on the notice paper so it stirs fights between the Liberals and the Nats for six months. Then he could, at a time of maximum political convenience, bring it on for debate,” they say. |
| “Joyce has handed Albo the timer to a bomb planted inside the Coalition party room.” | “Joyce has handed Albo the timer to a bomb planted inside the Coalition party room.” |