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Japan’s PM accepts ‘harsh’ election result as loss of upper house predicted Japan’s PM accepts ‘harsh’ election result after losing upper house majority
(about 8 hours later)
Ballot heaps pressure on Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government after it lost control of lower house in October Ballot heaps pressure on Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government just as it attempts to negotiate deal to avert Trump tariffs
Japan’s shaky ruling coalition is likely to lose control of the upper house, exit polls showed after Sunday’s election, potentially heralding political turmoil as a tariff deadline with the US looms. Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba’s future was unclear on Monday after his coalition lost its upper house majority in elections that saw strong gains by a rightwing populist party.
While the ballot does not directly determine whether prime minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government falls, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader, who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October. While the ballot does not directly determine whether Ishiba’s minority government falls, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader, who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October and who has never been popular within his own party.
Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito need 50 seats to secure the 248-seat upper chamber in an election where half the seats are up for grabs. His Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito needed 50 seats to secure the 248-seat upper chamber in an election in which half the seats were up for grabs but had only secured 47, with one seat left to declare, as of Monday morning.
They are forecast to hold 32 to 51 seats, the exit poll by public broadcaster NHK showed. Other broadcasters forecast the ruling coalition would return 41 to 43 seats. If the coalition drops below 46 seats it would mark its worst result since it was formed in 1999.
That comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October’s lower house election, a vote that has left Ishiba’s administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change.
Speaking to NHK two hours after polls closed, Ishiba, 68, said he “solemnly” accepted the “harsh result”.Speaking to NHK two hours after polls closed, Ishiba, 68, said he “solemnly” accepted the “harsh result”.
Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said: “That’s right.” Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said: “That’s right. It’s a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously.”
He later told TV Tokyo: “We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States … we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realising our national interests.” But the result also weakens Ishiba’s position just days before the country needs to negotiate a deal with the Trump administration to avert the imposition of punishing tariffs in its largest export market.
Japan, the world’s fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of 1 August to strike a trade deal with the US or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market. Ishiba later told TV Tokyo: “We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States … we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realising our national interests.”
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic party is projected to win 18 to 30 seats, from 22 held previously, NHK’s exit poll showed. Japan, the world’s fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of 1 August to strike a trade deal with the US.
The far-right Sanseito party, birthed on YouTube a few years ago, has been the surprise package with its “Japanese first” campaign and warnings about a “silent invasion” of foreigners. It is forecast to win 10 to 15 seats in the chamber, up from one held previously, yet it holds only three seats in the lower house. Japanese imports are already subject to a 10% tariff, while the auto industry – which accounts for 8% of jobs – is reeling from a 25% levy.
Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending have struck a chord with voters, the exit polls showed, as rising consumer prices – particularly a jump in the cost of rice – have sowed frustration at the government’s response. Weak export data last week, which showed plummeting US-bound auto deliveries, stoked fears that Japan could tip into a technical recession.
If Ishiba goes, it was unclear who might step up as the LDP’s 11th premier since 2000 now that the government needs opposition support in both chambers.
“Ishiba may be replaced by someone else, but it’s not clear who will be the successor,” Hidehiro Yamamoto, politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba, told Agence France-Presse.
The centre-left main opposition Constitutional Democratic party now has a total of 37 seats, with the centre-right Democratic Party for the People now on 22.
The far-right Sanseito party won 14 seats, up from one seat, giving it a significant presence in the upper house. Birthed on YouTube in 2020, it has been the election’s surprise package with its “Japanese first” campaign and warnings about a “silent invasion” of foreigners.
Turnout was 58%, six points higher than the last upper house vote, with a record number of people casting ballots in advance, in part due to the election falling in the middle of a three-day weekend. Sanseito has been appealing to a sizeable disillusioned segment of the population who feel ignored by the mainstream parties and rarely vote.
Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending have struck a chord with voters, exit polls showed, as rising consumer prices – particularly a jump in the cost of rice – have sowed frustration at the government’s response.
“The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue,” said David Boling, a director at the consulting firm Eurasia Group.“The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue,” said David Boling, a director at the consulting firm Eurasia Group.
“Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.”“Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.”
The LDP has been urging for fiscal restraint, with one eye on a very jittery government bond market, as investors worry about Japan’s ability to refinance the world’s largest debt pile.The LDP has been urging for fiscal restraint, with one eye on a very jittery government bond market, as investors worry about Japan’s ability to refinance the world’s largest debt pile.
Sanseito, which first emerged during the Covid pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, has dragged once fringe political rhetoric into the mainstream and gained wider support among frustrated voters.Sanseito, which first emerged during the Covid pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, has dragged once fringe political rhetoric into the mainstream and gained wider support among frustrated voters.
It remains to be seen whether the party can follow the path of other far-right parties with which it has drawn comparisons, such as Germany’s AfD and Reform UK.It remains to be seen whether the party can follow the path of other far-right parties with which it has drawn comparisons, such as Germany’s AfD and Reform UK.
“I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners,” said Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito earlier on Sunday.“I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners,” said Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito earlier on Sunday.
“When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected,” he said after casting his ballot at a polling station in Tokyo’s Shinjuku ward.“When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected,” he said after casting his ballot at a polling station in Tokyo’s Shinjuku ward.
In Japan, which has the world’s oldest population, foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year.In Japan, which has the world’s oldest population, foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year.
That is still just 3% of the total population, a much smaller fraction than in the US and Europe, but comes amid a tourism boom that has made foreigners far more visible across the country.That is still just 3% of the total population, a much smaller fraction than in the US and Europe, but comes amid a tourism boom that has made foreigners far more visible across the country.
With Reuters and Agence France-Presse