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Top US and EU delegations fly into Scotland for crunch Trump tariff talks Trump signals EU trade deal edging closer in crunch Scotland talks
(about 4 hours later)
Maroš Šefčovič joins Ursula von der Leyen with Howard Lutnick coming from US, as Trump says deal chance is 50/50 US president says chance of reaching agreement is 50/50 as talks with Ursula von der Leyen begin
A high-powered EU delegation has landed in Scotland nervously anticipating a breakthrough in talks with Donald Trump at a crunch meeting on Sunday to avoid an escalating trade war with Washington. Donald Trump has signalled a US trade deal with the EU is moving closer as the president meets with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for crunch talks in Scotland.
The EU trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, and a team of aides arrived at Glasgow Prestwick airport on Sunday morning to join an advance party led by the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, who flew in on Saturday to prepare for one of the most critical meetings in her tenure, due to be held at 4.30pm. The US president said he would like to reach a deal with Brussels but said that “three or four sticking points” remained as he put the chances of progress being made at “50-50”.
With the US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, and the trade representative, Jamieson Greer, also flying in for the meeting at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort, hopes are rising for a deal. In a rambling press conference alongside von der Leyen, arranged at his Turnberry golf resort before a high-stakes meeting between the leaders, Trump said a deal could be done “within an hour” if the obstacles could be overcome.
However, Trump is keeping the EU anxiously waiting, shouting on Sunday morning to Sky News television cameras stationed next to the golf course that the chances of a deal remained “50/50”. “When we come together this will be the biggest deal, if it happens, and it could happen. Should happen,” he said.
Heading into a cool summer’s day in south-west Scotland, nobody on either side had been willing to consider that Trump would sign on the dotted line, even if he called von der Leyen “a highly respected leader”. However, saying he was “not in a good mood”, the president confirmed anything less than a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods entering the US market would not be accepted.
The president focused on playing golf at his coastal resort on Saturday and Sunday, abandoning a scheduled talk with the press travelling with him on his four-day visit. “We have three or four sticking points I’d rather not get in. We’ll be discussing them, but I think the main sticking point is fairness,” he said, once again rating the chance of a deal at 50-50.
Trump had torn up the first deal his team had sealed with Šefčovič two weeks ago, instead pushing to threaten 30% tariffs on all imports from the EU from 1 August – his self-imposed deadline for a deal. “We’ve had a hard time with trade with Europe, very hard time, and I’d like to see it resolved,” he said.
On Friday Trump gave a “good 50-50” chance for a framework trade pact to be reached, adding that Brussels wanted to “make a deal very badly”. But in what could be seen as an upbeat note, he added: “We have a good chance of getting it resolved. We’ll probably know in about an hour. Shouldn’t take that long.”
Such an agreement would be the biggest reached yet by his administration, surpassing a $550bn (£409bn) accord with Japan last week and the UK trade deal secured in May. Sitting next to von der Leyen, who appeared composed but who Trump spoke over on several occasions, the US president also took aim at European migration and wind turbines.
The talks in Scotland will be closely scrutinised by jittery global investors before financial markets open on Monday morning, amid hopes for a deal to help limit the damage on the world economy. Agreeing that chance of a deal stood at s 50-50, von der Leyen told the US president: “Now it’s on us. You’re known as a tough negotiator and dealmaker. What is in front of us, if we’re successful, I think it would be the biggest deal each of us has ever struck.”
After going to such extensive lengths – flying in top officials to what was a hastily arranged meeting during the US president’s holiday to Scotland – not reaching an agreement would risk going down as a failure of statecraft. A high-powered EU delegationflew into Scotland earlier on Sunday nervously anticipating a breakthrough in talks.
A deal would be the closing chapter on 200 hours of face-to-face negotiations and video calls that started with a meeting in the Roosevelt room in the White House between Šefčovič, Lutnick, the US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, and Kevin Hassett, one of Trump’s longest-serving economic aides. This included the EU trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, and a team of aides alongside von der Leyen. The US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, and the trade representative, Jamieson Greer, with the presence of senior figures from both sides raising hopes for a deal.
While Šefčovič has been in almost daily contact with US counterparts since April, it is understood that Trump has taken a deep personal interest in the EU talks, demanding detailed briefings before his Scotland visit because he wants to close the deal himself. The talks in Scotland will be closely scrutinised by jittery global investors before financial markets open on Monday morning, amid hopes that a deal could help to limit the damage on the world economy.
Trump also signalled progress could be made in trade talks with China, saying “we’re very close”. A report by the South China Morning Post on Sunday suggested Washington and Beijing were preparing to announce a 90-day extension to a pause in tariffs to allow for continuing negotiations, before a 12 August deadline.
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However, nervousness prevails on the EU side over Trump’s unpredictability, especially after he said on Friday there were still about 20 sticking points, without detailing what they were. Trump, Lutnick and Greer were due to meet a team of five from the EU including von der Leyen; Šefčovič; Björn Seibert, von der Leyen’s head of cabinet; Sabine Weyand, a key player in the Brexit negotiations and now the director general of the EU’s trade commission; and Tomas Baert, a member of von der Leyen’s cabinet who has taken a lead role in talks.
If sealed, the deal would be seen as a victory for Trump nonetheless and show that his threats to impose tariffs on more than 60 countries has succeeded in extracted more revenue from third countries. Asked if pharmaceuticals, critical to Ireland’s exports to the US, would be included, Trump signalled he was unwilling to budge. “Pharmaceuticals won’t be part of it, because we have to have them built, made in the United States,” he said.
On Friday the US president described a deal with the EU as “the big one”, with €1.4tn (£1.22tn) at stake in annual trade ; involving Volkswagen cars, Cognac and Kerrygold butter sold to the US, and Boeing 747s, bourbon whiskey and liquified natural gas to the EU. And in a sign that a deal could spell long-term stability for the €1.4tn in transatlantic trade that has been upended by his tariff war, he said if a deal was done it would be permanent.
An outline agreement in principle centres on a baseline tariff of 15% on EU goods sold to the US, which is five percentage points more than the UK’s deal and triple the 4.8% average rate applied before Trump was elected. “If we do a deal today about the the European Union, that will be the end of it … we’ll go, I guess, a number of years at least,” he said.
However, EU diplomats concede that the previous world order was blown up on 2 April when Trump announced his “liberation day” plan, which included threatening the EU with 20% import duties. He said the deal which would unite the world’s largest and second-largest economic blocs would be “the biggest deal” he has signed yet.
A deal, even at 15%, would be seen as the painful price to restore stability for investors in the EU and manufacturers in key sectors such as the German, French and Swedish car industries, which, since April, have faced a 25% US tariff. “People don’t realise, this is bigger than any other deal,” he said.
He repeated his claim one of the unfairest parts of the trading relationships with the EU was the inability to sell cars to the bloc.
Cars can be sold into the bloc but face a 10% tariff.
“We have a rough situation, if we want to sell cars in Europe, we’re not allowed. And as you know, they sell millions and millions of cars, Mercedes, BMW, so many different Volkswagen, so many different cars”.