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Russia says it must be part of international talks on Ukraine’s security | Russia says it must be part of international talks on Ukraine’s security |
(about 3 hours later) | |
Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov dismisses European diplomacy as ‘clumsy effort to sway Trump’ | Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov dismisses European diplomacy as ‘clumsy effort to sway Trump’ |
Moscow has said it must be part of any international talks on Ukraine’s security, as Russia continues to stall on Donald Trump’s push for a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. | Moscow has said it must be part of any international talks on Ukraine’s security, as Russia continues to stall on Donald Trump’s push for a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. |
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said on Wednesday that Moscow must be included in any talks on Ukraine’s security guarantees, dismissing European diplomacy as “aggressive escalation” and a “clumsy effort to sway Trump”. | Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said on Wednesday that Moscow must be included in any talks on Ukraine’s security guarantees, dismissing European diplomacy as “aggressive escalation” and a “clumsy effort to sway Trump”. |
“To discuss security guarantees seriously without Russia is a road to nowhere,” Lavrov said during a working visit to Jordan. | “To discuss security guarantees seriously without Russia is a road to nowhere,” Lavrov said during a working visit to Jordan. |
Lavrov also said that China, Russia’s ally in the war, should be among Ukraine’s security guarantors – reviving a proposal first put forward by Russian negotiators during talks in Turkey in spring 2022. | Lavrov also said that China, Russia’s ally in the war, should be among Ukraine’s security guarantors – reviving a proposal first put forward by Russian negotiators during talks in Turkey in spring 2022. |
European leaders have begun exploring post-conflict security guarantees for Ukraine, following Trump’s pledge to help protect the country under any deal to end Russia’s war. | European leaders have begun exploring post-conflict security guarantees for Ukraine, following Trump’s pledge to help protect the country under any deal to end Russia’s war. |
Russian officials have repeatedly said Moscow would not accept the deployment of European forces to Ukraine, one of the key security guarantees under discussion. | Russian officials have repeatedly said Moscow would not accept the deployment of European forces to Ukraine, one of the key security guarantees under discussion. |
Kyiv is likely to view with scepticism any prospect of China, a supporter of Russia during the war, acting as a security guarantor. | Kyiv is likely to view with scepticism any prospect of China, a supporter of Russia during the war, acting as a security guarantor. |
Lavrov, meanwhile, avoided any direct reference to a possible Putin-Zelenskyy summit, highlighting the Kremlin’s apparent plans to delay any concrete planning of a meeting. | Lavrov, meanwhile, avoided any direct reference to a possible Putin-Zelenskyy summit, highlighting the Kremlin’s apparent plans to delay any concrete planning of a meeting. |
Trump announced this week he had “begun the arrangements” for the first meeting between the two leaders since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. | Trump announced this week he had “begun the arrangements” for the first meeting between the two leaders since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. |
Trump later claimed he had set up a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, explaining: “I thought I’d first let them meet.” | Trump later claimed he had set up a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, explaining: “I thought I’d first let them meet.” |
Opening direct talks with Zelenskyy would cut against the storyline Putin has cultivated since the 2022 invasion – portraying Ukraine’s president as an illegitimate figure and a mere puppet of the west. | Opening direct talks with Zelenskyy would cut against the storyline Putin has cultivated since the 2022 invasion – portraying Ukraine’s president as an illegitimate figure and a mere puppet of the west. |
Putin, who almost never refers to Zelenskyy by name and instead speaks of the “Kyiv regime”, has repeatedly cast doubt on whether his Ukrainian counterpart even holds the authority to sign a peace agreement. “You can negotiate with anyone, but because of his illegitimacy, he [Zelenskyy] has no right to sign anything,” Putin told Russian officials earlier this year. | Putin, who almost never refers to Zelenskyy by name and instead speaks of the “Kyiv regime”, has repeatedly cast doubt on whether his Ukrainian counterpart even holds the authority to sign a peace agreement. “You can negotiate with anyone, but because of his illegitimacy, he [Zelenskyy] has no right to sign anything,” Putin told Russian officials earlier this year. |
But Trump’s promise of a meeting puts Putin in a difficult spot: rejecting it risks tension with the US president, while agreeing to one would elevate Zelenskyy to equal status and confront Putin with a media-savvy rival ready to meet almost without preconditions. | But Trump’s promise of a meeting puts Putin in a difficult spot: rejecting it risks tension with the US president, while agreeing to one would elevate Zelenskyy to equal status and confront Putin with a media-savvy rival ready to meet almost without preconditions. |
Moscow has shown scant sign of preparing for such an encounter. | Moscow has shown scant sign of preparing for such an encounter. |
Lavrov cautioned on Wednesday that any contact between the two leaders would need to be arranged “with the utmost care”, while other Russian officials dismissed Zelenskyy as a lightweight unworthy of serious attention. | Lavrov cautioned on Wednesday that any contact between the two leaders would need to be arranged “with the utmost care”, while other Russian officials dismissed Zelenskyy as a lightweight unworthy of serious attention. |
But, as often is the case, Moscow has avoided closing the door entirely, hinting that the Putin–Zelenskyy encounter could take place, while giving no sign that it is actually on the horizon. | But, as often is the case, Moscow has avoided closing the door entirely, hinting that the Putin–Zelenskyy encounter could take place, while giving no sign that it is actually on the horizon. |
Several countries have offered to host a possible Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, including the Vatican, Switzerland and Hungary. | Several countries have offered to host a possible Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, including the Vatican, Switzerland and Hungary. |
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The Russian leader reportedly suggested to Trump that his counterpart travel to Moscow for talks – an idea Russia knew Kyiv would reject because of the obvious risks to Zelenskyy’s safety. | The Russian leader reportedly suggested to Trump that his counterpart travel to Moscow for talks – an idea Russia knew Kyiv would reject because of the obvious risks to Zelenskyy’s safety. |
Analysts suggested that the Russian leader would probably only meet Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s maximalist conditions, which would equal Ukraine’s capitulation. | Analysts suggested that the Russian leader would probably only meet Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s maximalist conditions, which would equal Ukraine’s capitulation. |
“Putin will not meet Zelenskyy under the current circumstances,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “He has repeatedly stated that such a meeting would only be possible if there were well-prepared grounds, which in practice means Zelenskyy’s acceptance of Russia’s terms for ending the war.” | “Putin will not meet Zelenskyy under the current circumstances,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “He has repeatedly stated that such a meeting would only be possible if there were well-prepared grounds, which in practice means Zelenskyy’s acceptance of Russia’s terms for ending the war.” |
Figures close to the Kremlin have emphasised that Putin sees no need to rush into a meeting with Zelenskyy. | Figures close to the Kremlin have emphasised that Putin sees no need to rush into a meeting with Zelenskyy. |
“Simply put, Putin only sees value in a meeting with Zelenskyy if it ends with a capitulation,” wrote the nationalist commentator Alexei Mukhin. “If Zelenskyy is unwilling to sign one, the Kremlin will keep ‘working on’ the idea of a meeting until he is,” Mukhin added. | “Simply put, Putin only sees value in a meeting with Zelenskyy if it ends with a capitulation,” wrote the nationalist commentator Alexei Mukhin. “If Zelenskyy is unwilling to sign one, the Kremlin will keep ‘working on’ the idea of a meeting until he is,” Mukhin added. |
Putin now faces a situation reminiscent of earlier moments when Trump pressed him to agree to a ceasefire. At the time, he managed to manoeuvre around the pressure, and analysts believe he is likely to take a similar approach now – downplaying the prospect of talks without rejecting them outright. | Putin now faces a situation reminiscent of earlier moments when Trump pressed him to agree to a ceasefire. At the time, he managed to manoeuvre around the pressure, and analysts believe he is likely to take a similar approach now – downplaying the prospect of talks without rejecting them outright. |
The key question is whether Trump will seek to put pressure on Kyiv to accept some of Russia’s demands to clear the way for a meeting between the two leaders. | The key question is whether Trump will seek to put pressure on Kyiv to accept some of Russia’s demands to clear the way for a meeting between the two leaders. |
Russia’s leadership on Wednesday showed no sign of compromise. Lavrov said the US was beginning to gain a clearer understanding of the “root causes” of the war – a phrase Putin has used to describe demands ranging from Ukraine’s formal renunciation of Nato membership to its “demilitarisation” and “denazification”, a vague formula that in practice would mean removing Zelenskyy. | Russia’s leadership on Wednesday showed no sign of compromise. Lavrov said the US was beginning to gain a clearer understanding of the “root causes” of the war – a phrase Putin has used to describe demands ranging from Ukraine’s formal renunciation of Nato membership to its “demilitarisation” and “denazification”, a vague formula that in practice would mean removing Zelenskyy. |
The Russian foreign minister also pointed to the April 2022 talks in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine as a model. Those failed negotiations centred on Moscow’s demands for Ukraine’s disarmament, political neutrality and the abandonment of its ambition to join Nato. | The Russian foreign minister also pointed to the April 2022 talks in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine as a model. Those failed negotiations centred on Moscow’s demands for Ukraine’s disarmament, political neutrality and the abandonment of its ambition to join Nato. |
Meanwhile, Russian officials told Reuters that Moscow was preparing to raise taxes and cut spending to sustain high defence outlays and keep the war effort going. | Meanwhile, Russian officials told Reuters that Moscow was preparing to raise taxes and cut spending to sustain high defence outlays and keep the war effort going. |
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