This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . The next check for changes will be
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/aug/27/england-and-wales-fertility-rate-falls-for-third-consecutive-year
The article has changed 6 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Fertility rate hits record low in England, Scotland and Wales | |
| (30 minutes later) | |
| Last year’s total fertility rate of 1.41 for England and Wales was lowest since comparable data was first collected in 1938, ONS says | |
| The fertility rate for England and Wales has fallen for the third year in a row to reach a record low, figures show. | The fertility rate for England and Wales has fallen for the third year in a row to reach a record low, figures show. |
| The total fertility rate across both nations, meaning the average number of live children women can expect to have across their child-bearing life, stood at 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023, the lowest since comparable data was first collected in 1938, according to the Office for National Statistics. | The total fertility rate across both nations, meaning the average number of live children women can expect to have across their child-bearing life, stood at 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023, the lowest since comparable data was first collected in 1938, according to the Office for National Statistics. |
| This is despite a 0.6% increase in live births last year, with a 14% increase in the number of babies born to fathers over 60, according to figures published last month. | This is despite a 0.6% increase in live births last year, with a 14% increase in the number of babies born to fathers over 60, according to figures published last month. |
| For a country’s population to remain stable over time – discounting any impact from migration – the total fertility rate needs to be about 2.1. | For a country’s population to remain stable over time – discounting any impact from migration – the total fertility rate needs to be about 2.1. |
| The disparity is down to the fact the adult population rose in 2024, which outweighed the increase in births. Since 1938, an increase in births at the same time as a decrease in the fertility rate has been observed only six times, with four occurring since 2011. | The disparity is down to the fact the adult population rose in 2024, which outweighed the increase in births. Since 1938, an increase in births at the same time as a decrease in the fertility rate has been observed only six times, with four occurring since 2011. |
| Greg Ceely, the head of population health monitoring at the Office for National Statistics, said: “Fertility rates in England and Wales have been in overall decline since 2010. The total number of births increased last year, for the first time since 2021; but this was offset by population growth. As a result, fertility rates fell overall, and are now at the lowest rates on record.” | Greg Ceely, the head of population health monitoring at the Office for National Statistics, said: “Fertility rates in England and Wales have been in overall decline since 2010. The total number of births increased last year, for the first time since 2021; but this was offset by population growth. As a result, fertility rates fell overall, and are now at the lowest rates on record.” |
| The stats also showed that the long-term trend of the average age of parents rising steadily over the past 50 years is continuing: the average age of mothers and fathers both increased by 0.1 years in 2024, with mothers aged 31 and fathers 33.9, according to the ONS’s annual Births in England and Wales publication. | The stats also showed that the long-term trend of the average age of parents rising steadily over the past 50 years is continuing: the average age of mothers and fathers both increased by 0.1 years in 2024, with mothers aged 31 and fathers 33.9, according to the ONS’s annual Births in England and Wales publication. |
| Over the last two decades, the average age of mothers and fathers has increased by two years for mothers, and just under two years for fathers. Mothers living in London had the highest mean age across all English regions and Wales at 32.5 years in 2024, compared with the lowest in the north-east, at 30. | Over the last two decades, the average age of mothers and fathers has increased by two years for mothers, and just under two years for fathers. Mothers living in London had the highest mean age across all English regions and Wales at 32.5 years in 2024, compared with the lowest in the north-east, at 30. |
| In 2024, the average age of mothers in England and Wales having their first born (29.4) was noticeably lower than those having later-born children (31.8 for second, 32.9 for third, and 33.9 for fourth), suggesting that mothers tend to leave larger gaps between their first and second children than for subsequent children. | In 2024, the average age of mothers in England and Wales having their first born (29.4) was noticeably lower than those having later-born children (31.8 for second, 32.9 for third, and 33.9 for fourth), suggesting that mothers tend to leave larger gaps between their first and second children than for subsequent children. |
| When broken down by age group, the fertility rate for the age group 25 to 29 has decreased the most for both mothers and fathers, although there were falls for all under-30s. Conversely, it increased for mothers between 30 and 39, and for fathers it increased between 35 and 39 and decreased between 30 and 34. | When broken down by age group, the fertility rate for the age group 25 to 29 has decreased the most for both mothers and fathers, although there were falls for all under-30s. Conversely, it increased for mothers between 30 and 39, and for fathers it increased between 35 and 39 and decreased between 30 and 34. |
| There were also notable increases for older fathers, with the fertility rate increasing for those over 60 and those aged 50-54, although it fell slightly for fathers in their 40s. | There were also notable increases for older fathers, with the fertility rate increasing for those over 60 and those aged 50-54, although it fell slightly for fathers in their 40s. |
| Sign up to First Edition | Sign up to First Edition |
| Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what’s happening and why it matters | Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what’s happening and why it matters |
| after newsletter promotion | after newsletter promotion |
| The stats also shed light on regional disparities. Two regions experienced an increase in the fertility rate, representing the first regional increases since 2021: the West Midlands increased from 1.56 in 2023 to 1.59 in 2024, and London increased from 1.33 in 2023 to 1.35 in 2024. The north-west experienced no change and all other regions recorded declines. | The stats also shed light on regional disparities. Two regions experienced an increase in the fertility rate, representing the first regional increases since 2021: the West Midlands increased from 1.56 in 2023 to 1.59 in 2024, and London increased from 1.33 in 2023 to 1.35 in 2024. The north-west experienced no change and all other regions recorded declines. |
| Luton was the area with the highest fertility rate at 2, while the City of London’s was the lowest at 0.32. | Luton was the area with the highest fertility rate at 2, while the City of London’s was the lowest at 0.32. |
| In Scotland, official data published on 26 August showed the country had the lowest number of births and the lowest birth rate since records began in 1855. | In Scotland, official data published on 26 August showed the country had the lowest number of births and the lowest birth rate since records began in 1855. |
| According to National Records of Scotland data, there were 45,763 live births last year, the lowest recorded. The overall fertility rate fell to 1.25 – below the rate for England and Wales, while the death rate also fell to the lowest on record, raising further fears about the widening age gap in Scotland. | According to National Records of Scotland data, there were 45,763 live births last year, the lowest recorded. The overall fertility rate fell to 1.25 – below the rate for England and Wales, while the death rate also fell to the lowest on record, raising further fears about the widening age gap in Scotland. |
| Politicians have been voicing concerns about the falling birthrate, in particular over the question of how a decreasing number of people of working age can support an ever-increasing number of pensioners. In July, the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, said the falling birthrate had “worrying repercussions” and that she hoped to be able to make it easier for women to have children. | Politicians have been voicing concerns about the falling birthrate, in particular over the question of how a decreasing number of people of working age can support an ever-increasing number of pensioners. In July, the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, said the falling birthrate had “worrying repercussions” and that she hoped to be able to make it easier for women to have children. |