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French prime minister’s confidence vote and its possible consequences French prime minister’s confidence vote and its possible consequences
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François Bayrou is almost certain to lose gamble. Will a new PM be appointed and could there be a snap election ?François Bayrou is almost certain to lose gamble. Will a new PM be appointed and could there be a snap election ?
The French prime minister François Bayrou has surprised France by calling a sudden confidence vote on 8 September, saying he needs backing from parliament for austerity measures to reduce France’s public debt. The French prime minister, François Bayrou, has surprised France by calling a sudden confidence vote on 8 September, saying he needs backing from parliament for austerity measures to reduce the public debt.
Bayrou is almost certain to lose the gamble. All opposition parties from the far-right to the left have said they will vote to topple the prime minister and his minority government after only nine months in office. Bayrou is almost certain to lose the gamble. All opposition parties from the far right to the left have said they will vote to topple the prime minister and his minority government after only nine months in office.
This would create a fresh political crisis. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, would have to decide whether to swiftly choose a replacement prime minister, while any new appointee might face the same difficulties as Bayrou in securing support. This would create a fresh political crisis. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, would have to decide whether to swiftly choose a replacement prime minister, while any new appointee could face the same difficulties as Bayrou in securing support.
Macron could instead call a snap parliament election, but he recently said he was reluctant to do so. Last year’s snap election resulted in a divided parliament, where no political grouping has an outright majority. Macron could instead call a snap parliamentary election, but he recently said he was reluctant to do so. Last year’s snap election resulted in a divided parliament where no political grouping has an outright majority.
Why has Bayrou called a confidence vote now?Why has Bayrou called a confidence vote now?
Bayrou, a centrist and longterm Macron ally, was struggling to get support for his unpopular plan for a €44bn budget squeeze and austerity programme to reduce France’s public debt. His proposals, including scrapping two public holidays and freezing most welfare spending, were contested across the political class. Bayrou, a centrist and long-term Macron ally, was struggling to get support for his unpopular plan for a €44bn budget squeeze and austerity programme to reduce France’s public debt. His proposals, including scrapping two public holidays and freezing most welfare spending, were contested across the political class.
Bayrou knew he was facing a difficult autumn: he would have to force through the 2026 budget without a parliament vote and was likely to be toppled by a no-confidence motion in the coming months. Calling his own confidence vote on 8 September was a way of jumping before he was pushed. He is the least popular prime minister since 1958, with one poll this summer showing 80% of French people don’t trust him. Bayrou knew he was facing a difficult autumn: he would have to force through the 2026 budget without a parliament vote and was likely to be toppled by a no-confidence motion in the coming months. Calling his own confidence vote on 8 September was a way of jumping before he was pushed. He is the least popular prime minister since 1958, with one poll this summer showing 80% of French people did not trust him.
Bayrou was also braced for anti-government demonstrations and strikes on 10 September against his budget plans, which officials feared might grow to resemble the gilets jaunes (yellow vest) protest movement of 2018 and 2019.Bayrou was also braced for anti-government demonstrations and strikes on 10 September against his budget plans, which officials feared might grow to resemble the gilets jaunes (yellow vest) protest movement of 2018 and 2019.
Will Emmanuel Macron appoint a new prime minister? Will Macron appoint a new prime minister?
If Bayrou falls, the most likely scenario is Macron chooses another prime minister. But it is not certain who, and they may have the same difficulties as Bayrou and struggle to pass a 2026 budget.If Bayrou falls, the most likely scenario is Macron chooses another prime minister. But it is not certain who, and they may have the same difficulties as Bayrou and struggle to pass a 2026 budget.
One year ago, Macron appointed the rightwing Michel Barnier as prime minister, but parliament ousted him only three months later over budget disagreements. His replacement, Bayrou, would have lasted nine months. One year ago, Macron appointed the rightwing Michel Barnier as prime minister, but parliament ousted him only three months later over budget disagreements. His replacement, Bayrou, will have lasted nine months by the time of the vote.
Since Macron called an inconclusive snap election last June, the French parliament has been divided between three groups with no absolute majority. A left alliance won the largest number of seats but fell short of an absolute majority; Macron’s centrist grouping suffered losses but is still present; and the far-right National Rally gained seats but was held back from power by tactical voting from the left and centre. Since Macron called an inconclusive snap election last June, the French parliament has been divided between three groups with no absolute majority. A left alliance won the largest number of seats but fell short of an absolute majority; Macron’s centrist grouping took losses but is still present; and the far-right National Rally gained seats but was held back from power by tactical voting from the left and centre.
The Green leader, Marine Tondelier, said this week that Macron must now appoint a prime minister from the left. But the rightwing party, Les Républicains , which has propped up the current government, would oppose that. The Green leader, Marine Tondelier, said this week that Macron must now appoint a prime minister from the left. But the rightwing party Les Républicains, which has propped up the current government, would oppose that.
Names that have previously circulated as potential prime minister include the defence minister, Sébastien Lecornu, who was on the right before joining Macron’s centrists, and the former Socialist prime minister, Bernard Cazeneuve. Names that have previously circulated as potential prime ministers include the defence minister, Sébastien Lecornu, who was on the right before joining Macron’s centrists, and the former Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve.
Could there be a snap parliament election?Could there be a snap parliament election?
Macron already gambled on a snap parliament election last summer in an attempt to head off the far-right and bolster his authority, but the move backfired and parliament was left deadlocked. Macron gambled on a snap parliamentary election last summer in an attempt to head off the far right and bolster his authority, but the move backfired and parliament was left deadlocked. Macron told Paris Match earlier this month that he did not intend to hold another snap election.
Macron told Paris Match earlier this month that he did not intend to hold another snap election. The justice minister, Gérald Darmanin, said this week that a snap election could not be ruled out. Some members of Macron’s centrist camp believe calling a parliamentary election may be the only solution, while others are opposed.
But the justice minister, Gérard Darmanin, said this week that a possible snap election could not be ruled out. Some members of Macron’s centrist camp believe calling a parliament election might be the only solution, while others are opposed. Marine Le Pen is pushing for a snap election in the hope that her far-right National Rally party could gain seats. In last year’s snap election, the far right gained ground but was held back in the final round by tactical voting and a left alliance. If an election is called, it is likely that Macron’s centrist grouping would lose seats.
Marine Le Pen is pushing for a snap election, in the hope that her far-right National Rally party could gain seats. In last year’s snap election, the far right gained ground but was held back in the final round by tactical voting and a left alliance. If an election is called, it is likely that Macron’s centrist grouping would lose seats. A majority of French people want parliament to be dissolved and a fresh parliamentary election, according to polls by Ifop, Elabe and Toluna Harris Interactive.
A majority of French people want parliament dissolved and a fresh parliament election, according to polls by Ifop, Elabe and Toluna Harris Interactive. Could Macron resign?
Could Emmanuel Macron resign? Macron’s second term as president runs until spring 2027 and he has always ruled out resigning. There were calls this week from some on the left, right and far right for Macron to resign but this is not expected.
Macron’s second term as president runs until spring 2027 and he has always ruled out resigning. If the prime minister falls, would it affect the small boats crisis, as growing numbers cross the Channel from France to the UK?
There were calls this week from some on the left, right and far right for Macron to resign but this is not expected. If Bayrou is ousted, the current French government would stay in place in a temporary, caretaker capacity to run domestic affairs until a new government is formed. This means policies on small boats would continue, including French policing of the northern coast, where people are departing for the UK.
If the French prime minister falls, would it affect the small boats crisis, as growing numbers cross the Channel from France to the UK? Keir Starmer announced a “one in, one out” returns deal with France earlier this year whereby the UK would send some people arriving by small boat back to France in exchange for asylum seekers with links to Britain. That will continue.
If Bayrou is ousted, the current French government would stay in place in a temporary, caretaker capacity to run domestic affairs until a new government is formed. French maritime authorities are continuing to study the possibility of a legal extension of French policing powers to the shallow waters off northern beaches, to prevent boats from departing.
This means current policies on small boats would continue, including French policing of the northern coast, where people are departing for the UK.
Keir Starmer announced a “one in, one out” returns deal with France earlier this year – whereby the UK will send some people arriving by small boat back to France in exchange for asylum seekers with links to Britain. That will continue.
French maritime authorities are also continuing to study the possibility of a legal extension of French policing powers to the shallow waters off northern beaches, to prevent boats departing.