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| The biggest non-story of the year? | The biggest non-story of the year? |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| There have been plenty of villains of this recession, but if there's a hero it is the humble hard-working man, or woman, in the street... in spite of all the forecasts, says Michael Blastland. | There have been plenty of villains of this recession, but if there's a hero it is the humble hard-working man, or woman, in the street... in spite of all the forecasts, says Michael Blastland. |
| Remember 2009's summer of strike-bound discontent and workers revolt? Me neither. It didn't happen. It was going to happen, we were told, as the recession ripped through the nation's living standards. | Remember 2009's summer of strike-bound discontent and workers revolt? Me neither. It didn't happen. It was going to happen, we were told, as the recession ripped through the nation's living standards. |
| The evidence of declining fortunes has been apparent in almost every piece of economic data. Do others feel that this has been answered with surprising calm? If so, perhaps that represents one of the biggest statistical stories of the year - and more than statistical - a story of what did not happen. | The evidence of declining fortunes has been apparent in almost every piece of economic data. Do others feel that this has been answered with surprising calm? If so, perhaps that represents one of the biggest statistical stories of the year - and more than statistical - a story of what did not happen. |
| GLOOMY PORTENTS FOR 2009 'Spending cuts 'could cause strikes on scale of 1970s''- Daily Telegraph, 1 August'Help ordinary people or we face a summer of turmoil' - Sunday Express, 1 March | |
| A professional statistical friend of mine says that looking at data is like a detective narrative, in which "we have to be just as aware of why we are or are not getting information". | A professional statistical friend of mine says that looking at data is like a detective narrative, in which "we have to be just as aware of why we are or are not getting information". |
| Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?" | Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?" |
| Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time." | Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time." |
| Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time." | Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time." |
| Holmes: "That was the curious incident." | Holmes: "That was the curious incident." |
| The curious incident of 2009 is the way the workers of all classes have taken it on the chin and done, well, nothing. | The curious incident of 2009 is the way the workers of all classes have taken it on the chin and done, well, nothing. |
| And not for lack of provocation, at least for some: shorter working hours, unpaid holidays - like those in the UK auto industry, when Mini, for example, told everyone to go home for a few weeks - pay cuts, like those at British Airways, and, in general lower pay rises. | And not for lack of provocation, at least for some: shorter working hours, unpaid holidays - like those in the UK auto industry, when Mini, for example, told everyone to go home for a few weeks - pay cuts, like those at British Airways, and, in general lower pay rises. |
| The graph above shows the dramatic effect on wages when Christmas bonuses all but disappeared last year. | The graph above shows the dramatic effect on wages when Christmas bonuses all but disappeared last year. |
| There is a case that the heroes of the recession have been the working people, people who have done nothing rash, nor irrational, have not bet the ranch on derivatives, but have accepted the cost of a downturn and simply got on with it. | There is a case that the heroes of the recession have been the working people, people who have done nothing rash, nor irrational, have not bet the ranch on derivatives, but have accepted the cost of a downturn and simply got on with it. |
| They have not, despite media encouragement, hidden in the basement to live on baked beans, but rather gone on spending in a reasonably sensible way (official retail sales figures have been nothing like the news coverage would lead us to believe). They have pulled in their horns a bit on the big-ticket items - quite sensibly - until they saw how things panned out. | They have not, despite media encouragement, hidden in the basement to live on baked beans, but rather gone on spending in a reasonably sensible way (official retail sales figures have been nothing like the news coverage would lead us to believe). They have pulled in their horns a bit on the big-ticket items - quite sensibly - until they saw how things panned out. |
| Mr Moderation | Mr Moderation |
| A few had probably borrowed excessively, as a few always do, but there is good evidence that even this had moderated well before most commentators even spotted the potential for the economy to turn bad, as if people felt it coming. And they have not gone on strike to try to compensate for hard times with higher pay. How likely was all this a generation ago? | A few had probably borrowed excessively, as a few always do, but there is good evidence that even this had moderated well before most commentators even spotted the potential for the economy to turn bad, as if people felt it coming. And they have not gone on strike to try to compensate for hard times with higher pay. How likely was all this a generation ago? |
| Keeping his head down - Mr Average has just got on with it | Keeping his head down - Mr Average has just got on with it |
| Does it suggest economic maturity, an acceptance that you can't beat a real fall in national income and that, if you try, you will bring inflation? Or does it show that the workers have lost their fighting spirit? Or simply that they still feel the injustice but are powerless to do anything about it? Or is it only a calm before the storm, when public rage will be terrible to behold? | Does it suggest economic maturity, an acceptance that you can't beat a real fall in national income and that, if you try, you will bring inflation? Or does it show that the workers have lost their fighting spirit? Or simply that they still feel the injustice but are powerless to do anything about it? Or is it only a calm before the storm, when public rage will be terrible to behold? |
| When inflation was a worry early last year, this moderation was vital in persuading the Bank of England that interest rates could begin to be cut - too late, say some - but, without some faith that inflation was keeping out of wage claims, it could have been later still. | When inflation was a worry early last year, this moderation was vital in persuading the Bank of England that interest rates could begin to be cut - too late, say some - but, without some faith that inflation was keeping out of wage claims, it could have been later still. |
| And now, flexibility about pay and conditions might mean that unemployment has stayed rather lower than might otherwise have been expected. Despite the impression from some commentary, it has not risen as fast or as far as widely predicted, compared with previous recessions. | And now, flexibility about pay and conditions might mean that unemployment has stayed rather lower than might otherwise have been expected. Despite the impression from some commentary, it has not risen as fast or as far as widely predicted, compared with previous recessions. |
| A toast then - but not perhaps in champagne - to the workers, of all classes. | A toast then - but not perhaps in champagne - to the workers, of all classes. |
| Add your comments on this story, using the form below. | Add your comments on this story, using the form below. |
| The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions | The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions |