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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/15/millions-of-australians-at-risk-from-rising-sea-levels-and-heat-deaths-could-soar-landmark-climate-report-warns
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| Warning of climate breakdown and soaring heat deaths a ‘wake up call’ for Australia, PM says | |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| National climate risk assessment report finds heat-related deaths would surge 450% in Sydney if global heating surpasses 3C | National climate risk assessment report finds heat-related deaths would surge 450% in Sydney if global heating surpasses 3C |
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| Anthony Albanese says a landmark report on the climate risks confronting Australia is a “wake-up call” that reinforces the need for “serious” action to combat global heating. | |
| The prime minister said the findings of the national climate risk assessment would inform the government’s soon-to-be released 2035 emissions target, while stressing the need to plan for an “orderly” energy transition to avoid losing public support for climate action. | |
| The government on Monday released the long-awaited climate risk assessment, offering the most detailed picture of the severe and far-reaching social and economic consequences of the climate crisis for Australia. | |
| Led by the Australian Climate Service, the inaugural assessment modelled the impact of climate-related hazards such as heatwaves, drought and floods on different parts of the community, economy and environment under three global heating scenarios: above 1.5C, above 2C and above 3C. | Led by the Australian Climate Service, the inaugural assessment modelled the impact of climate-related hazards such as heatwaves, drought and floods on different parts of the community, economy and environment under three global heating scenarios: above 1.5C, above 2C and above 3C. |
| Warming across the Australian continent has already reached 1.5C, the report notes. | Warming across the Australian continent has already reached 1.5C, the report notes. |
| Among scores of findings, the modelling shows that under a 3C scenario, the number of heat-related deaths in Sydney increases by 444% and by 423% in Darwin. | Among scores of findings, the modelling shows that under a 3C scenario, the number of heat-related deaths in Sydney increases by 444% and by 423% in Darwin. |
| The report also lays bare the heightened risk from rising sea levels on Australia’s populous coastal communities, including flooding, erosion and inundation. | The report also lays bare the heightened risk from rising sea levels on Australia’s populous coastal communities, including flooding, erosion and inundation. |
| It finds that by 2050, 1.5 million coastal residents would be at risk, rising to more than 3 million by 2090. | It finds that by 2050, 1.5 million coastal residents would be at risk, rising to more than 3 million by 2090. |
| The assessment also models the economic impact, estimating the direct cost of floods, bushfires, storms and cyclones across the states and territories could reach $40bn a year in 2050 – even under a 1.5C scenario. | The assessment also models the economic impact, estimating the direct cost of floods, bushfires, storms and cyclones across the states and territories could reach $40bn a year in 2050 – even under a 1.5C scenario. |
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| “It’s important that we don’t gild the lily or downplay its impact in any way. We have to be honest with the Australian people,” the climate change minister, Chris Bowen, said of the “confronting” findings in the report. | |
| The delays in publishing the climate risk assessment prompted accusations the government was trying bury the findings, which sources familiar with its contents had described as “intense and scary”. | The delays in publishing the climate risk assessment prompted accusations the government was trying bury the findings, which sources familiar with its contents had described as “intense and scary”. |
| The release of the report was immediately seized upon by environmentalists, climate scientists, social services groups and the Greens as evidence the government must commit to a 2035 emissions target above 75%. | The release of the report was immediately seized upon by environmentalists, climate scientists, social services groups and the Greens as evidence the government must commit to a 2035 emissions target above 75%. |
| The federal cabinet is expected to sign off on the 2035 target later this week after the Climate Change Authority provided its advice to Bowen last Friday. | The federal cabinet is expected to sign off on the 2035 target later this week after the Climate Change Authority provided its advice to Bowen last Friday. |
| The authority’s preliminary advice suggested a range between 65% and 75%, with most of the political debate and lobbying from industry and green groups centred on that level of ambition. | The authority’s preliminary advice suggested a range between 65% and 75%, with most of the political debate and lobbying from industry and green groups centred on that level of ambition. |
| Bowen said the government’s target would be “controversial by definition”, acknowledging that some people would consider it too high while others would criticise it as too low. | Bowen said the government’s target would be “controversial by definition”, acknowledging that some people would consider it too high while others would criticise it as too low. |
| The minister was confident cabinet would agree a target that was achievable but ambitious. | The minister was confident cabinet would agree a target that was achievable but ambitious. |
| “There isn’t an Australian community that isn’t impacted by climate change going forward, and there isn’t an Australian individual for whom those impacts won’t be real and material,” he said. | “There isn’t an Australian community that isn’t impacted by climate change going forward, and there isn’t an Australian individual for whom those impacts won’t be real and material,” he said. |
| “So at a time when the political debate is focused on the cost of action, both real and imagined, this report is a reminder, if we needed one ever, that the cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.” | “So at a time when the political debate is focused on the cost of action, both real and imagined, this report is a reminder, if we needed one ever, that the cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.” |
| Speaking from Papua New Guinea, Albanese said the report was a “wake-up call for anyone who denies the science of climate change” – a cohort he suggested included members of the federal Coalition. | |
| Asked if the findings would inform the decision on the 2035 target, he said: “Of course it does”. | |
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| “We need to act on the science of climate change. Secondly, we need to do so in an orderly way. Because you will lose support for action on climate change if people go home, they flick their switch on and the lights don’t go on.” | |
| The opposition warned against “alarmist language” as it insisted Australia had the ability to manage the threat of climate change. | |
| “This is a moment to reassure Australians,” the opposition leader, Sussan Ley, and shadow energy minister, Ted O’Brien, said in a joint statement. | |
| ‘Headwinds’ for green energy transition | |
| The debate over Australia’s 2035 target comes amid signs the global push to net zero is losing momentum, with Donald Trump withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement and other countries, such as Canada and New Zealand, moderating their ambitions. | The debate over Australia’s 2035 target comes amid signs the global push to net zero is losing momentum, with Donald Trump withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement and other countries, such as Canada and New Zealand, moderating their ambitions. |
| Bowen acknowledged the “global headwinds” facing the green energy transition but said Australia and the rest of the world must press on. | Bowen acknowledged the “global headwinds” facing the green energy transition but said Australia and the rest of the world must press on. |
| “Climate change action and various elements will go through sort of various iterations of fashion – but the science won’t change, the economics won’t change, and this government’s commitment won’t change,” he said. | “Climate change action and various elements will go through sort of various iterations of fashion – but the science won’t change, the economics won’t change, and this government’s commitment won’t change,” he said. |
| The Albanese government’s commitment to fighting the climate crisis was questioned as recently as Friday after it approved an extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project out to 2070 – dubbed a “carbon bomb” by environmentalists. | The Albanese government’s commitment to fighting the climate crisis was questioned as recently as Friday after it approved an extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project out to 2070 – dubbed a “carbon bomb” by environmentalists. |
| Bowen defended the fossil fuel’s role in the green energy transition as he insisted the government’s “seriousness on climate action cannot be understated”. | Bowen defended the fossil fuel’s role in the green energy transition as he insisted the government’s “seriousness on climate action cannot be understated”. |
| The Climate Council chief executive, Amanda McKenzie, described the report’s findings as “terrifying” while the Australian Conservation Foundation’s acting chief executive, Paul Sinclair, said it should be a “wake-up call for the Albanese government”. | The Climate Council chief executive, Amanda McKenzie, described the report’s findings as “terrifying” while the Australian Conservation Foundation’s acting chief executive, Paul Sinclair, said it should be a “wake-up call for the Albanese government”. |
| The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, said the findings were “chilling”. | The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, said the findings were “chilling”. |
| “What this report shows is that a 2035 target of 65% means significant potential for loss of life and strain on health systems, more extreme heat, more devastating floods, crop failures, fires, global insecurity and the death of every coral reef around the world,” she said. | “What this report shows is that a 2035 target of 65% means significant potential for loss of life and strain on health systems, more extreme heat, more devastating floods, crop failures, fires, global insecurity and the death of every coral reef around the world,” she said. |
| “If Labor fails to set a science-based climate target then it’s crystal clear: they have utterly prioritised coal and gas profits at the expense of community safety and nature.” | “If Labor fails to set a science-based climate target then it’s crystal clear: they have utterly prioritised coal and gas profits at the expense of community safety and nature.” |
| The risk assessment will be scrutinised at a parliamentary inquiry on Tuesday, which was launched amid frustration from the Greens and other crossbenchers over the repeated delays in its release. | The risk assessment will be scrutinised at a parliamentary inquiry on Tuesday, which was launched amid frustration from the Greens and other crossbenchers over the repeated delays in its release. |