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Bowen says cutting emissions by more than 70% ‘not achievable’ as 2035 target criticised from all sides Bowen says cutting emissions by more than 70% ‘not achievable’ as 2035 target criticised from all sides
(32 minutes later)
Albanese says 62% to 70% range represents ‘the sweet spot’ as Coalition rejects ‘economy wrecking’ target while Greens label it a ‘betrayal’Albanese says 62% to 70% range represents ‘the sweet spot’ as Coalition rejects ‘economy wrecking’ target while Greens label it a ‘betrayal’
What is a climate target, and how does Australia’s stack up?What is a climate target, and how does Australia’s stack up?
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The Albanese government insists its new 2035 emissions reduction target of 62% to 70% represents the “maximum level of ambition”, as climate campaigners warn it falls short of what Australia should be doing to combat global heating.The Albanese government insists its new 2035 emissions reduction target of 62% to 70% represents the “maximum level of ambition”, as climate campaigners warn it falls short of what Australia should be doing to combat global heating.
The climate change minister, Chris Bowen, said a 2035 target above 70% on 2005 levels was “not achievable” as he claimed the government’s new goal was aligned with the global aim of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C.The climate change minister, Chris Bowen, said a 2035 target above 70% on 2005 levels was “not achievable” as he claimed the government’s new goal was aligned with the global aim of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C.
The government unveiled its long-awaited 2035 emissions target on Thursday alongside a high-level plan to reach net zero by 2050, including specific pathways for six sectors of the economy.The government unveiled its long-awaited 2035 emissions target on Thursday alongside a high-level plan to reach net zero by 2050, including specific pathways for six sectors of the economy.
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It also announced $8bn worth of measures to spur the green energy transition and published treasury modelling that suggested cutting emissions 65% could grow the economy $2trn by 2050. It also announced $8bn worth of measures to spur the green energy transition and published treasury modelling that suggested cutting emissions by 65% could grow the economy $2trn by 2050.
The announcement prompted immediate political blowout, with the Liberals rejecting the “economy-wrecking” 2035 target and the Greens labelling Labor’s target range as a “betrayal” of the planet.The announcement prompted immediate political blowout, with the Liberals rejecting the “economy-wrecking” 2035 target and the Greens labelling Labor’s target range as a “betrayal” of the planet.
“We think we’ve got the sweet spot,” the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said.“We think we’ve got the sweet spot,” the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said.
“There will be criticism from some who say it’s too high, there’s some who will say that it’s too low.”“There will be criticism from some who say it’s too high, there’s some who will say that it’s too low.”
The chosen range of 62% to 70% below 2005 levels was based on the final advice from the Matt Kean-led Climate Change Authority, which was handed to Bowen last Friday and considered at cabinet on Thursday.The chosen range of 62% to 70% below 2005 levels was based on the final advice from the Matt Kean-led Climate Change Authority, which was handed to Bowen last Friday and considered at cabinet on Thursday.
The recommended range was lower than the authority’s preliminary advice from April 2024, which suggested a target between 65% to 75% was ambitious but achievable. The recommended range was lower than the authority’s preliminary advice from April 2024, which suggested a target between 65% and 75% was ambitious but achievable.
In the final report, the authority put the ceiling at 70%.In the final report, the authority put the ceiling at 70%.
“The authority finds that an emissions reduction target of 62–70% from 2005 levels represents Australia’s highest possible ambition taking account of the matters set out under the relevant legislation, is achievable, and is in Australia’s national and economic interest,” it found. “The authority finds that an emissions reduction target of 62-70% from 2005 levels represents Australia’s highest possible ambition taking account of the matters set out under the relevant legislation, is achievable, and is in Australia’s national and economic interest,” it found.
“While some analysis suggests it would be technically possible for Australia to achieve even more, our analysis finds that doing so would involve higher delivery risks and may require policies with considerably higher near-term social, environmental or economic impacts.”“While some analysis suggests it would be technically possible for Australia to achieve even more, our analysis finds that doing so would involve higher delivery risks and may require policies with considerably higher near-term social, environmental or economic impacts.”
The report said even reaching the lower-end of the range would not be easy, requiring, among other changes, a halving of current emissions levels, a six-fold increase in storage capacity, quadrupling of wind capacity and electric vehicles accounting for half of new cars sold between now and 2035. The report said even reaching the lower end of the range would not be easy, requiring, among other changes, a halving of current emissions levels, a six-fold increase in storage capacity, a quadrupling of wind capacity and electric vehicles accounting for half of new cars sold between now and 2035.
Climate campaigners had argued the target range must include 75% to be credible, a level of ambition supported by an Andrew Forrest-backed coalition of businesses.Climate campaigners had argued the target range must include 75% to be credible, a level of ambition supported by an Andrew Forrest-backed coalition of businesses.
Bowen said a target above 70% was “not achievable”, arguing the chosen range was the “maximum level of ambition that’s achievable”.Bowen said a target above 70% was “not achievable”, arguing the chosen range was the “maximum level of ambition that’s achievable”.
“We’re not going to pretend that some sort of figure over 70 with no evidence, with no modelling, with no advice that’s achievable, is a sensible ambition for this country to go after,” he said.“We’re not going to pretend that some sort of figure over 70 with no evidence, with no modelling, with no advice that’s achievable, is a sensible ambition for this country to go after,” he said.
Echoing comments made to Guardian Australia, Bowen said the government’s target was consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2021 report, which suggested global emissions needed to be 68% lower by 2035 for the world to hit 1.5C target. Echoing comments made to Guardian Australia, Bowen said the government’s target was consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2021 report, which suggested global emissions needed to be 68% lower by 2035 for the world to hit the 1.5C target.
The Paris agreement makes clear developed countries such as Australia were expected to take the lead on cutting emissions given they had benefitted from decades of fossil fuel use. The Paris agreement makes clear developed countries such as Australia were expected to take the lead on cutting emissions, given they had benefited from decades of fossil fuel use.
The latest annual climate department forecast put Australia on track to reduce emissions by 51% on 2005 levels by 2035, meaning the Albanese government must substantially accelerate efforts if it wants achieve the new target. The latest annual climate department forecast put Australia on track to reduce emissions by 51% on 2005 levels by 2035, meaning the Albanese government must substantially accelerate efforts if it wants to achieve the new target.
The announcement of the 2035 target follows the release of a landmark report that found no Australian would escape the “cascading, compounding and concurrent” threats of the climate crisis.The announcement of the 2035 target follows the release of a landmark report that found no Australian would escape the “cascading, compounding and concurrent” threats of the climate crisis.
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Described as a “wake-up call” by Albanese, the national climate risk assessment warned 1.5 million people could be at risk from rising sea levels and heat-related deaths could surge if global heating rose above 2C.Described as a “wake-up call” by Albanese, the national climate risk assessment warned 1.5 million people could be at risk from rising sea levels and heat-related deaths could surge if global heating rose above 2C.
The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, said the target showed Labor had “given up on the science”, a criticism also levelled by the independent senator, David Pocock.The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, said the target showed Labor had “given up on the science”, a criticism also levelled by the independent senator, David Pocock.
“Labor’s utter failure of a climate target is a betrayal of people and the planet and a win for coal and gas corporations,” Waters said.“Labor’s utter failure of a climate target is a betrayal of people and the planet and a win for coal and gas corporations,” Waters said.
Sussan Ley’s shadow cabinet met immediately after Thursday’s announcement and agreed to oppose the new target, including if Labor attempts to enshrine it law. Sussan Ley’s shadow cabinet met immediately after Thursday’s announcement and agreed to oppose the new target, including if Labor attempts to enshrine it in law.
“The Coalition strongly rejects Labor’s economy-wrecking 2035 emissions reduction target, a fantasy that rests on flawed assumptions and cannot be believed,” the opposition leader said.“The Coalition strongly rejects Labor’s economy-wrecking 2035 emissions reduction target, a fantasy that rests on flawed assumptions and cannot be believed,” the opposition leader said.
The opposition is in the midst of an internal fight over climate policy as a rump of Liberals and Nationals push for the Coalition to dump its commitment to net zero by 2050.The opposition is in the midst of an internal fight over climate policy as a rump of Liberals and Nationals push for the Coalition to dump its commitment to net zero by 2050.
The Climate Council chief executive, Amanda McKenzie said the low-end of the government’s target range was inadequate but 70% was “closer to what’s needed to protect Australians”. The Climate Council chief executive, Amanda McKenzie, said the low-end of the government’s target range was inadequate, but 70% was “closer to what’s needed to protect Australians”.
The Australian Conservation Foundation climate and energy program manager, Gavan McFadzean, said the government’s “timid” target fell short of what was required.The Australian Conservation Foundation climate and energy program manager, Gavan McFadzean, said the government’s “timid” target fell short of what was required.
Shiva Gounden, head of Pacific at Greenpeace Australia, said the announcement was an “affront” to communities facing the climate crisis. Shiva Gounden, the head of the Pacific campaign at Greenpeace Australia, said the announcement was an “affront” to communities facing the climate crisis.
Simon Sheikh, a founding member of the Business for 75 coalition that backed a 75% target, said the government’s announcement was a “solid step forward”.Simon Sheikh, a founding member of the Business for 75 coalition that backed a 75% target, said the government’s announcement was a “solid step forward”.
The Minerals Council of Australia, which represents some of the nation’s biggest fossil fuel companies, said the target range was a balance between “ambition and pragmatism”, although the upper-end was “highly aspirational”. The Minerals Council of Australia, which represents some of the nation’s biggest fossil fuel companies, said the target range was a balance between “ambition and pragmatism”, but added that the upper-end was “highly aspirational”.
The 2035 emissions target was due prior to the May federal election but was delayed to give the climate authority more time to assess the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.The 2035 emissions target was due prior to the May federal election but was delayed to give the climate authority more time to assess the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Trump’s withdrawal of the US – the world’s second-largest polluter behind China – from the Paris Agreement has prompted concerns for the global push to net zero. Trump’s withdrawal of the US – the world’s second-largest polluter behind China – from the Paris Agreement has prompted concerns about the global push to net zero.