The MLS Supporters’ Shield race is the closest in recent memory – here’s who could win it
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Version 0 of 1. The trophy for the best regular season record has numerous contenders, which of which have reasons to think they’ll lift it (or not) Are you a Cup or Shield person? For those who choose the latter, this part of the season is for you. The race to claim the title for best regular-season record is coming to a head with several teams still in serious Supporters’ Shield contention – it’s shaping up to be the wildest finish in recent memory. As evidence of this: The standings are led by a team who lost their most recent match 7-0. Behind them – by just one point – are an expansion side. Then it’s a team who have won just two of their last six games followed by an outfit on a record-tying nine-game winning streak. And then there’s the team lurking in the shadows, boasting the greatest player of all-time, still within striking distance thanks to games in hand. So many teams can still win the Supporters’ Shield, yet only one will. Here are the cases for and against each contender. Philadelphia Union (currently 1st, 57 points) Why they’ll win it: A cohesive vision. No matter how the regular season finishes, the Union’s managerial gamble for 2025 paid off. By firing Jim Curtin and hiring Bradley Carnell in his place, sporting director Ernst Tanner fully leaned into his plan for the club – and his vision has been realised by a team that favours direct, vertical attacks and a high-tempo style. They boast a go-to striker in Tai Baribo, whose 16 league goals go a long way to explaining Philadelphia’s Shield standing. Why they won’t: Philly are known for beating up on weaker teams, but against playoff-level opponents, they have struggled to impose themselves, a trend encapsulated most brutally by Saturday’s 7-0 humiliating loss to the Vancouver Whitecaps. Carnell’s squad rotation ahead of the US Open Cup semi-final against Nashville was a factor, but the worst defeat in Union history may have left a mark. Any sort of drop in form from Baribo would have an impact. The pre-emptive signing of Milan Iloski hinted at a nervousness about this, but for the time being Philly are just about maintaining their overachievement. San Diego FC (2nd, 56 points) Why they’ll win it: Mikey Varas’ brand of aggressive possession-based soccer is the sort of thing many previously believed to be beyond a side in their first year, but MLS’s 30th team already have coherence many of their rivals can only dream of. They have a favourable run-in that includes games against Atlanta United, San Jose, Houston and Portland. Why they won’t: If they fall short, it could be due to a lack of cutting edge up front. The decision not to sign Iloski permanently could prove costly. The recent loss to Minnesota United (despite an xG of 2.16 compared to Minnesota’s 0.5) shows this a bit, and may also have provided the blueprint for teams to take points off San Diego. And then there’s history: No expansion team has won the Supporters’ Shield before. Sign up to Soccer with Jonathan Wilson Jonathan Wilson brings expert analysis on the biggest stories from European soccer after newsletter promotion FC Cincinnati (3rd, 55 points) Why they’ll win it: Difference-makers. FC Cincinnati’s defensive work coupled with the attacking quality of Evander, Luca Orellano and Kévin Denkey gives them a formidable profile – teams that are strong at the back and dangerous up front have a habit of winning stuff. The summer move to bring back Brenner bolstered Cincy’s forward line for the run-in. A run of very winnable games down the stretch could help. Why they won’t: Lack of balance. Pat Noonan’s team have been difficult to work out this season. Most recently, and at various other points of the campaign, Cincy have been defensively vulnerable and predictable in attack. What’s more, they have suffered from stage fright in the biggest matches more than once – see defeats to Philly, Charlotte FC and Columbus in the last two months alone. Brenner’s acquisition will only be worth something if they can do a better job of progressing possession through midfield and into the final third. Minnesota United (4th, 54 points) Why they’ll win it: Set pieces. “The long throw is back,” according to Thomas Tuchel, and Eric Ramsay is clearly on the same wavelength as the England manager. Minnesota United have made chucking the ball into the mixer a key part of their attacking approach under the former Manchester United assistant, who has established the Loons as the most aggressive set-piece team in the world. Hanging on to Joaquín Pereyra also helps. Minnesota turned down a substantial offer for the Argentinian playmaker in an attempt to strike a balance between planning for the future and staying competitive in the present. Why they won’t: A big transfer away. Until recently, Minnesota still had Tani Oluwaseyi as another part of their attacking approach. Now, the Canadian international is playing in Spain after an €8m switch to Villarreal. Whether or not Ramsay can compensate for the loss of Oluwaseyi’s output (10 goals and seven assists) could determine Minnesota’s final league position. Charlotte FC (5th, 53 points) Why they’ll win it: Insanely good form. Charlotte have won nine straight, tying the 2018 Seattle Sounders for the longest winning streak in league history (counting shootout wins from the league’s early years as draws). Saturday’s demolition of Inter Miami was a full demonstration of why Dean Smith’s team can’t be discounted. Big performers are performing: There was a penalty save from Messi by Kristijan Kahlina, who has rediscovered his Goalkeeper of the Year form from 2024. There was a hat-trick for Idan Toklomati who has stepped into the void left by Patrick Agyemang this summer and elevated Charlotte’s forward line to an even higher level. Why they won’t: The underlying numbers don’t love Charlotte despite this winning run, and the team can cool just as easily – they lost five straight earlier this year, and still have more ground than almost anyone else to make up in the race. Inter Miami (9th, 49 points) Why they’ll win it: Games in hand. There are seven teams with more points on the board than Inter Miami, but Messi and Co still have three games in hand that could propel them into serious Shield contention. A relatively favourable run-in makes it possible that the Herons could come from way back to cross the line before anyone else. Messi and the fact he is still the Goat also makes that possible. Why they won’t: Form and availability. Luis Suárez sat out on Tuesday, suspended for the 3-1 win over the Seattle Sounders after a spitting incident against the same team in the Leagues Cup final. In fact, the team continues to have disciplinary problems all over the field. And as for Messi, the 38-year-old was somewhat lethargic in the 3-0 defeat to Charlotte FC in which he had a panenka penalty saved (though he was more characteristically impactful in the midweek win over the Sounders, registering a goal and an assist). As long as Messi is in pink, Inter Miami have a chance, but they’ll be playing a lot of games between now and Decision Day. |