How should Albanese handle Trump? John Bolton has some hard truths about the ‘stunningly uninformed’ president
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Version 0 of 1. Bolton says the world leader who handled the US president better than anyone else was Shinzo Abe: he never asked Trump for anything Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast Like most people in Donald Trump’s orbit at one time or another, John Bolton, the US president’s former national security adviser, was unceremoniously pushed out. Adviser to four Republican presidents and George W Bush’s ambassador to the United Nations, Bolton’s hawkish foreign policy views and vocal support for the Iraq war made him a divisive pick to serve in Trump’s first administration. He lasted 17 months and later described Trump as “stunningly uninformed” and unfit to be president. Trump’s justice department is reportedly weighing up charges against Bolton over alleged mishandling of classified documents this week. An experienced foreign policy player, he has unique insights into the mercurial and erratic commander-in-chief. New York being New York, it was a chance encounter on an Upper East Side street that gave Guardian Australia the chance to ask Bolton about Anthony Albanese’s Trump challenge. He told this column Albanese needs to convince Trump why it is in his own interest to stick to the Aukus nuclear agreement, given he expects Pentagon adviser Elbridge Colby will tell the president to tear up the deal. “The world leader who managed Trump better than anyone was Shinzo Abe,” Bolton said, praising the former Japanese prime minister, who was killed by an assassin in July 2022. Using the traditional style of Japanese diplomacy, Abe talked to Trump as regularly as possible, calling on the phone or playing golf with the president. In November 2016, he was the first foreign leader to visit Trump Tower in New York. But for Bolton, one element of Abe’s style was critical: he never asked Trump for anything. Avoiding a mercantile-type of relationship with the property developer turned scorched earth politician meant that, when Abe needed the US, Trump viewed any request as coming from a friend. Bolton suggests Albanese ask Keir Starmer for his counsel during his visit in London this weekend. The British prime minister speaks regularly with Trump, including about their families and the challenges of high office, and has successfully deployed gentle flattery and gift-giving to stroke Trump’s ego. He called when, as a candidate, Trump was shot at last year, and Trump called when Starmer’s brother died. Confirmation this week that Albanese would meet Trump on 20 October in the Oval Office completely changed the atmospherics of his busy week in New York. Preparing to announce Australia’s recognition of Palestinian statehood and to spruik the government’s new 2035 climate targets, Albanese was left off Trump’s schedule at the UN, compounding his abrupt exit from the G7 summit in Canada in June and recent fumbles on security treaties with Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea. Colby’s review of Aukus, due to be complete around the time of the Albanese visit, will be critical. Bolton compared the deal signed by Democrat Joe Biden to Trump’s self interested cost-benefit analysis on a possible Chinese move to retake Taiwan. If he believes there’s nothing in it for him, Trump won’t think twice about pulling out. Trump will likely push for Australia to dramatically increase defence spending, to as much as 3.5% of GDP. Currently Australia spends about $59bn on defence every year and increasing to Trump’s desired threshold would add about another $30bn annually. In an interview at a New York Times event this week, the moderator mistakenly asked Albanese about the $3bn Aukus price tag. Albanese said he wished the deal cost that little. In reality, buying secondhand Virginia-class submarines and then building a new model in partnership with the UK will cost closer to $400bn. So far Australia has sent about $1.6bn to support the US manufacturing base, money which won’t be returned if Aukus is cancelled. With the Trump meeting monkey off his back, the prime minister was able to use his Wednesday night speech to the general assembly to revive Australia’s bid for a temporary seat on the UN security council and highlight efforts to rally middle-power countries to act as a ballast against Trump’s curated chaos in Washington. The government does not plan to splash millions on the security council bid and currently there are two candidates for two seats, Australia and Finland, meaning for now at least the bid is uncontested. Albanese called the UN a platform for middle powers and small nations “to voice and achieve our aspirations”. “For Australia, this means investing in our capabilities and investing in our relationships,” he said. “Investing in development, in defence and in diplomacy.” As Australians prepared for Saturday’s AFL grand final, Albanese was meeting with Starmer and the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, in London. They each took part in the Global Progress Action Summit, a centre-left political event which also included Iceland’s 37-year-old leader, Kristrún Mjöll Frostadóttir, and Spain’s Pedro Sánchez. Albanese met with former prime minister Tony Blair before the event. Cooperation among the group won’t stop Trump bastardising global institutions, trashing alliances and mistreating friends and partners but, as with climate policies and Albanese’s planned social media restrictions for children under 16, countries shifting cooperation away from the US can defend their shared interests. One of the highlights of the UN trip was European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s presence at an event to promote the social media ban. Chasing a security and defence agreement with Australia, she praised the Labor government for standing up to the American-owned platforms and the EU commission says all options are on the table to protect children online. But product differentiation from Trump won’t be sufficient for those arguing for a clear break from the US in foreign and defence policy. Australians appalled by Trump’s oafish behaviour will judge Albanese harshly if he is seen to acquiesce or placates too much to the US president to build positive rapport. Despite his dislike of Trump, Bolton has seen up close how the president treats foreign leaders. Managing the relationship will be a high-wire act for Albanese. |