Watching Caerphilly: Welsh byelection may be bellwether for political transformation in UK
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Version 1 of 2. Plaid Cymru and Reform are polling above Welsh Labour in race for Senedd seat experts say may be ‘canary in the coalmine’ Usually, a Welsh parliament byelection in Caerphilly would probably not attract huge attention away from its rolling green hills and post-industrial townscapes. But these are not normal times and the result of next month’s ballot in this corner of south Wales may have ramifications across the UK. Apologising for the cliche, Dr Jac Larner, a polling expert at Cardiff University who is from Caerphilly, said the byelection may be the “canary in the coalmine” for a fundamental change in the UK political landscape. If polling, which has suggested that an ailing Labour party could be pushed into third place in one of its traditional heartlands by a surge from the right in the shape of Reform UK and the left in Plaid Cymru, is correct, the shock waves will be felt not only in Cardiff but from London to Edinburgh and just about everywhere in between. “Labour is facing an existential crisis in Wales that threatens to end over a century of political dominance,” Larner said. “To understand the magnitude of this collapse, consider Labour’s unparalleled Welsh heritage. “Wales is the home of its first leader, Keir Hardie, and its spiritual leader, Aneurin Bevan, and by the next Senedd election [in 2026] it will have been 103 years since Labour was not the largest party in a major Welsh election – the longest such streak of any party anywhere in the world.” Larner said if Reform wins or does well in Caerphilly it adds weight to the thesis that Nigel Farage’s party is fundamentally reshaping Britain’s political landscape. In addition, other parties could replicate Plaid’s progress. “The SNP could capitalise on Labour struggles in Scotland, or the Liberal Democrats and Greens could gain in England,” he said. The main route through the town of Caerphilly passes the biggest castle in Wales and a bronze statue of the magician and comedian Tommy Cooper. At the moment there are also three campaign offices on the main drag as Labour, Reform and Plaid all try to make their presence felt. When the Guardian visited, the contrast between the offices of the two leading contenders – Reform and Plaid – was marked. Visitors to the Reform base are greeted by a staff member with the air of a bouncer rather than a receptionist. Its candidate, Llŷr Powell, was there but did not have time to chat. The staff member handed out campaign leaflets that tell a familiar tale. One calls on voters to “Stop Labour and Plaid Cymru’s mass immigration agenda”. Migration is not a devolved issue, but Reform wants the Welsh government’s “nation of sanctuary” plan, a framework for helping refugees find homes and jobs, scrapped. The Plaid office could not have been more welcoming, with its candidate, Lindsay Whittle, a local councillor for half a century, popping out for a chat. He said it was the most upbeat campaign for the nationalists here since the Caerphilly byelection of 1968 when Plaid cut Labour’s majority from more than 21,000 to less than 2,000. Whittle reminisced about the Joan Baez and Bob Dylan protest songs of that era, the Prague spring and pro-Alexander Dubček graffiti scribbled on the fabric of the castle. “Exciting times!” Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid leader, brought it back to the present. “This is an area linked most with Labour dominance, not for 10 or 20 years, but over a century,” he said. “And we are seeing a change of historic proportions.” Ap Iorwerth said there was a “deep sense” among citizens that the Tories and Labour had forgotten them. “That’s left a vacuum.” He argued, as he would, that Plaid provided a “positive alternative” to fill this gap. The Plaid leader said he thought that the people of Caerphilly were tired of Reform’s focus on migration. “Migration isn’t even devolved to Wales,” he said. “This is the sowing and perpetuating of divisions and tensions.” Reform’s arrival in the town is certainly causing discomfort. Their office is surrounded by businesses – grocery stores, barber shops and nail salons – that are staffed by relative newcomers to the UK. “It makes us feel scared when we see them here,” said one shopkeeper, who started a business in the town having arrived in the UK from the Middle East. “We are contributing, paying our taxes but we see the leaflets and it worries us.” The shopkeeper asked not to be identified because he feared reprisals. Cath, who was pushing her grandchild in a pram, expressed disappointment at Starmer. “I voted for him and had every hope for him. I feel let down by him.” But she was worried about Reform. “They just tell people what they want to hear.” But the Reform message is hitting home for some. The Piccadilly pub in the town has put up Reform posters in its windows and will host a “community event” there. “I believe we need change,” said the landlady, Christine. “I hope they put a spoke in some wheels.” Labour’s standing in Wales has dropped off a cliff since Vaughan Gething stepped down as first minister last year amid a donations scandal. His successor, Eluned Morgan, has tried – but so far failed – to draw a line between Welsh Labour and the increasingly unpopular UK party. According to a YouGov poll, only 14% of people would vote for Labour at the Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections compared with Plaid Cymru (30%) or Reform UK (29%). The party polled just ahead of the Conservatives (11%). Laura McAllister, a professor at the Wales Governance Centre that is part of the University of Cardiff, said fatigue and frustration had gripped Welsh Labour. “Having been in power for so long, the party hasn’t been able to reinvent itself, modernise itself, refresh itself.” Will Hayward, who publishes a newsletter on Welsh politics, said it was difficult to overstate the trouble Welsh Labour was in. He also pointed out that success for Reform in Wales would lead to a sharp rise in staffers working for the party who are able to promote it across the UK. Labour has chosen a political newcomer to fight Caerphilly. Richard Tunnicliffe runs a Welsh language publishing business and was thrust into this election campaign after the death of his friend Hefin David, who represented Caerphilly since 2016. Welsh Labour has gone on the offensive, dismissing the Reform candidate as Farage’s “puppet” and claiming Caerphilly had little to show from the Plaid contender’s 50 years of service to the area. But Tunnicliffe’s endorsement of Starmer sounded lukewarm. Asked whether the UK prime minister was listening to people, he replied: “I think he is having to listen to people.” He said he was prepared to speak up against his own party. For example, he is opposing the Labour-run local authority’s plans to close libraries. Tunnicliffe said people wanted change, not tribalism. “People feel things have been going backwards. People are feeling they’re not listened to, things have been done to them, not with them.” It is a refrain that under-pressure candidates may be repeating ad nauseam across the UK in the next few years. The best public interest journalism relies on first-hand accounts from people in the know. 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