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| ‘London has turned into something crazy’: is the city in the grip of a crime wave? | |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Perception of runaway crime partly blamed for ‘driving away the super-rich’ but in reality some high-profile offences such as watch theft are falling | Perception of runaway crime partly blamed for ‘driving away the super-rich’ but in reality some high-profile offences such as watch theft are falling |
| ‘Snatch theft’: the unstoppable rise of phone theft | ‘Snatch theft’: the unstoppable rise of phone theft |
| London is no longer a safe place to live, at least in the eyes of some of its richest residents – and the 47th president of the United States. | London is no longer a safe place to live, at least in the eyes of some of its richest residents – and the 47th president of the United States. |
| “I think he’s done a terrible job,” Donald Trump said during his state visit to the UK last month, in his latest broadside at London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan. “Crime in London is through the roof.” | “I think he’s done a terrible job,” Donald Trump said during his state visit to the UK last month, in his latest broadside at London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan. “Crime in London is through the roof.” |
| Trump’s view is increasingly accepted wisdom in rightwing circles and is gaining traction more widely. Crime is even being blamed – along with rising taxes – for an apparent exodus of the super-rich from the UK. | Trump’s view is increasingly accepted wisdom in rightwing circles and is gaining traction more widely. Crime is even being blamed – along with rising taxes – for an apparent exodus of the super-rich from the UK. |
| A prime property agent recalls a client’s Rolex being stolen off his wrist the first night he moved into Kensington, the west London neighbourhood that is one of the city’s most affluent. | A prime property agent recalls a client’s Rolex being stolen off his wrist the first night he moved into Kensington, the west London neighbourhood that is one of the city’s most affluent. |
| Advisers to the super-rich describe a city where “spotters” linger outside exclusive restaurants sizing up possible targets, while demand for private bodyguards grows. | Advisers to the super-rich describe a city where “spotters” linger outside exclusive restaurants sizing up possible targets, while demand for private bodyguards grows. |
| It is a view that Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage, often repeats, warning one journalist: “I dare you to walk through the West End of London after 9 o’clock of an evening wearing jewellery. You wouldn’t do it. You know that I’m right. You wouldn’t do it.” | It is a view that Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage, often repeats, warning one journalist: “I dare you to walk through the West End of London after 9 o’clock of an evening wearing jewellery. You wouldn’t do it. You know that I’m right. You wouldn’t do it.” |
| A series of high-profile crimes has helped reinforce that view. The ex-Formula One driver Jenson Button and his wife, Brittny, had a suitcase containing £250,000 worth of valuables snatched within moments of their arrival at King’s Cross St Pancras. In January, the socialite Shafira Huang’s mansion in Primrose Hill, north London, was burgled, with thieves taking more than £10m worth of bespoke jewellery. | A series of high-profile crimes has helped reinforce that view. The ex-Formula One driver Jenson Button and his wife, Brittny, had a suitcase containing £250,000 worth of valuables snatched within moments of their arrival at King’s Cross St Pancras. In January, the socialite Shafira Huang’s mansion in Primrose Hill, north London, was burgled, with thieves taking more than £10m worth of bespoke jewellery. |
| In November, the owners of the Sellier luxury goods store in Knightsbridge shared footage of masked men ransacking their premises, later commenting: “London has just turned into something crazy.” | In November, the owners of the Sellier luxury goods store in Knightsbridge shared footage of masked men ransacking their premises, later commenting: “London has just turned into something crazy.” |
| But is crime in the capital really “through the roof”? While statistics show crime is falling across England and Wales, with violent crime dropping dramatically over the past two decades, crime in London is up. Recorded crime has increased by 31% in the past decade in the area that the Metropolitan police covers, with violent crime up by 40%. | But is crime in the capital really “through the roof”? While statistics show crime is falling across England and Wales, with violent crime dropping dramatically over the past two decades, crime in London is up. Recorded crime has increased by 31% in the past decade in the area that the Metropolitan police covers, with violent crime up by 40%. |
| Mobile phone theft remains a menace in London, with one ebike-riding thief jailed last year for stealing 24 phones in an hour. But there are signs that the tide is starting to turn in the capital, with violent crime falling by 6% in the year to the end of March, according to the Met police. Luxury watch theft, once a stain on London’s elite neighbourhoods of Mayfair and Knightsbridge, has massively reduced in the past two years. So why does perception not match reality? | Mobile phone theft remains a menace in London, with one ebike-riding thief jailed last year for stealing 24 phones in an hour. But there are signs that the tide is starting to turn in the capital, with violent crime falling by 6% in the year to the end of March, according to the Met police. Luxury watch theft, once a stain on London’s elite neighbourhoods of Mayfair and Knightsbridge, has massively reduced in the past two years. So why does perception not match reality? |
| Is violent crime falling? | Is violent crime falling? |
| Many crimes go unreported to the police, so the Crime Survey for England and Wales asks tens of thousands of households directly every year whether they have been the victim of a crime. The findings suggest crime has fallen dramatically over the past 20 years. | Many crimes go unreported to the police, so the Crime Survey for England and Wales asks tens of thousands of households directly every year whether they have been the victim of a crime. The findings suggest crime has fallen dramatically over the past 20 years. |
| Last year London reported the lowest number of homicides of under-25s for more than two decades. Overall, murders are at a five-year low, and the rate is much lower than in other international cities such as New York, Paris, Brussels, Berlin and Madrid, according to analysis by Khan’s office. | Last year London reported the lowest number of homicides of under-25s for more than two decades. Overall, murders are at a five-year low, and the rate is much lower than in other international cities such as New York, Paris, Brussels, Berlin and Madrid, according to analysis by Khan’s office. |
| But knife crime has been rising in London: while the number of recorded knife crimes fell from 2012 in the run-up to 2016, it then started to rise again, hitting a peak of 15,600 incidents in 2019. There was a sharp drop during the pandemic, but it has since been closing in on its previous peak, standing at 15,000 in 2023-24. More recent statistics show knife crime in London dropping by 19% in the three months to June, compared with a year earlier. | But knife crime has been rising in London: while the number of recorded knife crimes fell from 2012 in the run-up to 2016, it then started to rise again, hitting a peak of 15,600 incidents in 2019. There was a sharp drop during the pandemic, but it has since been closing in on its previous peak, standing at 15,000 in 2023-24. More recent statistics show knife crime in London dropping by 19% in the three months to June, compared with a year earlier. |
| Other serious offences are dropping: in the year ending in March, there was a 6% reduction in violent crime overall, according to the Met police. And in a city that is home to about 9 million people, Londoners are less likely (26.4 offences per 1,000 people) to be a victim of violent crime than people across the rest of England and Wales (31.9 offences per 1,000 people), according to figures from the mayor’s office. | Other serious offences are dropping: in the year ending in March, there was a 6% reduction in violent crime overall, according to the Met police. And in a city that is home to about 9 million people, Londoners are less likely (26.4 offences per 1,000 people) to be a victim of violent crime than people across the rest of England and Wales (31.9 offences per 1,000 people), according to figures from the mayor’s office. |
| So why is it that the narrative of a lawless capital is so prevalent? A YouGov survey in September showed 51% of adults thought violent crime in London was increasing, against just 7% who thought it was falling. | So why is it that the narrative of a lawless capital is so prevalent? A YouGov survey in September showed 51% of adults thought violent crime in London was increasing, against just 7% who thought it was falling. |
| The “broken windows” idea partly explains why: this is the criminology theory that visible signs of minor crime and antisocial behaviour create an environment that encourages further crime, and normalises disorder as a part of public life. | The “broken windows” idea partly explains why: this is the criminology theory that visible signs of minor crime and antisocial behaviour create an environment that encourages further crime, and normalises disorder as a part of public life. |
| Take phone theft, for example. After dropping during the pandemic, phone theft has been steadily rising since 2020, when there were 55,820 incidents reported to the Met. The figure has more than doubled, standing at 117,211 last year. | Take phone theft, for example. After dropping during the pandemic, phone theft has been steadily rising since 2020, when there were 55,820 incidents reported to the Met. The figure has more than doubled, standing at 117,211 last year. |
| These snatch thefts can cause huge distress and financial impact to victims, given the vast amount of personal data stored on phones and mobile banking apps. They are also harder to police, with criminals using ebikes and mopeds to make rapid getaways, and links to organised gangs that have sophisticated and established supply chains to sell phones abroad. | These snatch thefts can cause huge distress and financial impact to victims, given the vast amount of personal data stored on phones and mobile banking apps. They are also harder to police, with criminals using ebikes and mopeds to make rapid getaways, and links to organised gangs that have sophisticated and established supply chains to sell phones abroad. |
| It means that in areas such as Knightsbridge, which was hit particularly hard by watch thefts in 2022, it gave residents a broader sense of lawlessness in the UK. | It means that in areas such as Knightsbridge, which was hit particularly hard by watch thefts in 2022, it gave residents a broader sense of lawlessness in the UK. |
| But some of these numbers suggest police are starting to get a grip. Reports of phone theft fell by 28% to 213 in the City of London, which has its own police force, in the first four months of 2025, compared with the same period in the year prior. | But some of these numbers suggest police are starting to get a grip. Reports of phone theft fell by 28% to 213 in the City of London, which has its own police force, in the first four months of 2025, compared with the same period in the year prior. |
| Outside the capital’s financial district, phone theft is still rising, but luxury watch, handbag and jewellery theft are all down in London, according to figures obtained from the Met police under a freedom of information request. | Outside the capital’s financial district, phone theft is still rising, but luxury watch, handbag and jewellery theft are all down in London, according to figures obtained from the Met police under a freedom of information request. |
| There were 783 counts of stolen watches that were worth at least £3,000 in 2024, compared with 2,054 the year prior, according to the Met’s data. Counts of stolen handbags worth at least £1,000 fell from 2,324 in 2023 to 721 last year. Counts of stolen jewellery, excluding watches, worth at least £1,000 fell from 4,977 to 1,863. | There were 783 counts of stolen watches that were worth at least £3,000 in 2024, compared with 2,054 the year prior, according to the Met’s data. Counts of stolen handbags worth at least £1,000 fell from 2,324 in 2023 to 721 last year. Counts of stolen jewellery, excluding watches, worth at least £1,000 fell from 4,977 to 1,863. |
| The sharp drop coincides with a big crackdown by the Met, with plainclothes officers baiting thieves in crime hotspots after dark. This summer three men were jailed after a Met police investigation into a series of high-value watch robberies in central London. Detectives used CCTV to identify a group of violent repeat offenders, who carried out two robberies in Mayfair on consecutive days. | The sharp drop coincides with a big crackdown by the Met, with plainclothes officers baiting thieves in crime hotspots after dark. This summer three men were jailed after a Met police investigation into a series of high-value watch robberies in central London. Detectives used CCTV to identify a group of violent repeat offenders, who carried out two robberies in Mayfair on consecutive days. |
| Despite the big drop, the perception of danger still remains among many of the super-rich, especially when it comes to their watches. A store manager in Mayfair said that while he made his living by selling luxury watches, he now told his clients not to wear them on the street. | Despite the big drop, the perception of danger still remains among many of the super-rich, especially when it comes to their watches. A store manager in Mayfair said that while he made his living by selling luxury watches, he now told his clients not to wear them on the street. |
| Reputations: hard-won, easily lost | Reputations: hard-won, easily lost |
| The capital’s Berkeley Square, which is bordered by A-list hotspots such as Sexy Fish restaurant and Annabel’s members club, has become a hotspot for late-night watch crime, according to the Watch Register, which works and shares data with the police. | The capital’s Berkeley Square, which is bordered by A-list hotspots such as Sexy Fish restaurant and Annabel’s members club, has become a hotspot for late-night watch crime, according to the Watch Register, which works and shares data with the police. |
| The timepieces, which are easier to transport than drugs or cash, have now become an “underworld currency”, the company said. About 20% of watches that it finds are in a different country from where they were stolen. | The timepieces, which are easier to transport than drugs or cash, have now become an “underworld currency”, the company said. About 20% of watches that it finds are in a different country from where they were stolen. |
| “Luxury watches have become a preferred form of criminal currency due to their high portability across borders, which makes them easier to move than drugs or cash,” said Julian Radcliffe, founder of the Watch Register. “They are small, portable, innocuous items which are only identifiable by serial number.” | “Luxury watches have become a preferred form of criminal currency due to their high portability across borders, which makes them easier to move than drugs or cash,” said Julian Radcliffe, founder of the Watch Register. “They are small, portable, innocuous items which are only identifiable by serial number.” |
| Not wearing a luxury watch outside is now the standard advice, says Matthew Beer, a director at the security firm King Safety and Security. “There has been a longstanding issue around opportunistic street crime,” he said. “That slowed a little bit with the Met’s response with more tactical interventions but we are still seeing a lot of electric bike-enabled phone theft and watch theft with an unpredictable level of violence associated with that.” | Not wearing a luxury watch outside is now the standard advice, says Matthew Beer, a director at the security firm King Safety and Security. “There has been a longstanding issue around opportunistic street crime,” he said. “That slowed a little bit with the Met’s response with more tactical interventions but we are still seeing a lot of electric bike-enabled phone theft and watch theft with an unpredictable level of violence associated with that.” |
| It means that for ultra-high net worth clients, there is a greater appetite for “close protection” services – in other words, bodyguards. | It means that for ultra-high net worth clients, there is a greater appetite for “close protection” services – in other words, bodyguards. |
| “Those who would have had protection in the past have a greater appetite for more security,” Beer said. “So where we once had a security driver and one close protection officer, we are now pushing that out so family members also receive protection.” | “Those who would have had protection in the past have a greater appetite for more security,” Beer said. “So where we once had a security driver and one close protection officer, we are now pushing that out so family members also receive protection.” |
| The numbers suggest demand for security is growing: in 2024, there were 4,650 applications for a close protection licence from the Security Industry Authority, a 33% rise compared with the year before. Last year the regulator awarded 187,113 qualifications across the industry, an increase of 5%, which includes services such as the transport of cash and valuables, door supervision and security guarding. | The numbers suggest demand for security is growing: in 2024, there were 4,650 applications for a close protection licence from the Security Industry Authority, a 33% rise compared with the year before. Last year the regulator awarded 187,113 qualifications across the industry, an increase of 5%, which includes services such as the transport of cash and valuables, door supervision and security guarding. |
| “More established travellers, perhaps someone who comes from an environment that is historically more dangerous, they would still view London as a relatively safe place to be,” Beer added. | “More established travellers, perhaps someone who comes from an environment that is historically more dangerous, they would still view London as a relatively safe place to be,” Beer added. |
| “Younger clients who are more engaged on social media; their understanding of it is perhaps a little clearer. You don’t need to be ultra-high net worth individual to be a target: [you are] if you have a reasonably nice watch or carrying a designer handbag.” | “Younger clients who are more engaged on social media; their understanding of it is perhaps a little clearer. You don’t need to be ultra-high net worth individual to be a target: [you are] if you have a reasonably nice watch or carrying a designer handbag.” |
| Steven Helliwell, of the security consultants Aldermans, said: “I think the police are under strain as [political] protests continue; that is a lot of distraction. But it is during times of economic stress that is when people are motivated to turn to crime.” | Steven Helliwell, of the security consultants Aldermans, said: “I think the police are under strain as [political] protests continue; that is a lot of distraction. But it is during times of economic stress that is when people are motivated to turn to crime.” |
| Even so, it has not been enough to drive off the super-rich, he said. “Some of the high net worth clients we have got like football stars, they will just strengthen the preventions that they have got. They still want to reside in London because it is a great city.” | Even so, it has not been enough to drive off the super-rich, he said. “Some of the high net worth clients we have got like football stars, they will just strengthen the preventions that they have got. They still want to reside in London because it is a great city.” |
| A spokesperson for the Met police said: “Tackling violent crime in all of its forms is one of the Met’s priorities and we have reduced the number of personal robberies across London by 12% since April. | A spokesperson for the Met police said: “Tackling violent crime in all of its forms is one of the Met’s priorities and we have reduced the number of personal robberies across London by 12% since April. |
| “Uniform and plainclothed officers proactively patrol robbery hotspots to identify offences taking place, but more importantly to help prevent and deter offenders from committing them in the first place.” | “Uniform and plainclothed officers proactively patrol robbery hotspots to identify offences taking place, but more importantly to help prevent and deter offenders from committing them in the first place.” |